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Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities

Stijn Goeminne (UGent) , Benny Geys and Carine Smolders (UGent)
(2005) International Institute of Public Finance annual congress, 61st, Papers.
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Abstract
The level of revenues pocketed by a government during the fiscal year often significantly deviates from that projected by this government in its initial budget. Though this difference between actual and projected revenues is not always negligible, little is yet known about what may explain such forecast errors. In the present paper, we analyse whether differences in the level of government fragmentation are useful in explaining local government tax revenue forecast errors – controlling for various other factors. Using data on 242 Flemish municipalities for the period 1992-2002, we found that two-party governments are more optimistic than single-party governments. In contrast to our initial expectations, governments with at least three parties are significantly more careful (or less optimistic) in their revenue projections than single- or two-party governments.
Keywords
tax projections, forecast accuracy, government fragmentation, Flemish municipalities

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Citation

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MLA
Goeminne, Stijn, et al. “Political Fragmentation and Projected Tax Revenues: Evidence from Flemish Municipalities.” International Institute of Public Finance Annual Congress, 61st, Papers, 2005.
APA
Goeminne, S., Geys, B., & Smolders, C. (2005). Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities. International Institute of Public Finance Annual Congress, 61st, Papers. Presented at the International Institute of Public Finance 61st annual congress : Macro-fiscal policies : new perspectives and challenges, Jeju, South Korea.
Chicago author-date
Goeminne, Stijn, Benny Geys, and Carine Smolders. 2005. “Political Fragmentation and Projected Tax Revenues: Evidence from Flemish Municipalities.” In International Institute of Public Finance Annual Congress, 61st, Papers.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Goeminne, Stijn, Benny Geys, and Carine Smolders. 2005. “Political Fragmentation and Projected Tax Revenues: Evidence from Flemish Municipalities.” In International Institute of Public Finance Annual Congress, 61st, Papers.
Vancouver
1.
Goeminne S, Geys B, Smolders C. Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities. In: International Institute of Public Finance annual congress, 61st, Papers. 2005.
IEEE
[1]
S. Goeminne, B. Geys, and C. Smolders, “Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities,” in International Institute of Public Finance annual congress, 61st, Papers, Jeju, South Korea, 2005.
@inproceedings{888955,
  abstract     = {{The level of revenues pocketed by a government during the fiscal year often significantly deviates from that projected by this government in its initial budget.  Though this difference between actual and projected revenues is not always negligible, little is yet known about what may explain such forecast errors.  In the present paper, we analyse whether differences in the level of government fragmentation are useful in explaining local government tax revenue forecast errors – controlling for various other factors.  Using data on 242 Flemish municipalities for the period 1992-2002, we found that two-party governments are more optimistic than single-party governments. In contrast to our initial expectations, governments with at least three parties are significantly more careful (or less optimistic) in their revenue projections than single- or two-party governments.}},
  author       = {{Goeminne, Stijn and Geys, Benny and Smolders, Carine}},
  booktitle    = {{International Institute of Public Finance annual congress, 61st, Papers}},
  keywords     = {{tax projections,forecast accuracy,government fragmentation,Flemish municipalities}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  location     = {{Jeju, South Korea}},
  pages        = {{20}},
  title        = {{Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities}},
  year         = {{2005}},
}