Downscaling ensemble climate projections to urban scale : Brussels's future climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming
- Author
- François Duchêne, Rafiq Hamdi (UGent) , Bert Van Schaeybroeck (UGent) , Steven Caluwaerts (UGent) , Rozemien De Troch (UGent) , Lesley De Cruz (UGent) and Piet Termonia (UGent)
- Organization
- Abstract
- There is an increasing need to obtain climate projections for cities using an ensemble approach for uncertainty estimation. Yet, current-day computational resources are too limited to dynamically downscale GCM ensembles to urban scale. Here, a recently developed and validated statistical-dynamical computationally-cheap method is employed to downscale ten EURO-CORDEX climate projections over Brussels (Belgium) covering the period 1971-2100. Results show that, under the Paris agreement, summer mean projected temperature in Brussels will rise by 3.6 degrees C to 4.1 degrees C [+ - 0.7 degrees C] on average. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity does not increase under future global warming with even a slight decrease under heatwave (HW) conditions by 0.1 degrees C (+/- 0.1 degrees C). However, the number of HW days is projected to be 30.6% and 158.9% higher for the 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C Global Warming Levels (GWL), respectively, as compared to 1.5 degrees C GWL. The heat stress during HW periods also follows the same trend: compared to a 1.5 degrees C GWL, the number of extreme heat stress days at 2 degrees C (3 degrees C) GWL will increase by 29% (91%) on average inside the city. The results can be used in support of adaptation measures, which should be considered for future resilience of the city of Brussels.
- Keywords
- Atmospheric Science, Urban Studies, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Geography, Planning and Development, Urban climate, Downscaling, HEAT-ISLAND, EURO-CORDEX, SURFACE, IMPACT, MODEL, TEMPERATURE, WAVES, PARIS, LAND, SIMULATION
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Citation
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8770765
- MLA
- Duchêne, François, et al. “Downscaling Ensemble Climate Projections to Urban Scale : Brussels’s Future Climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C Global Warming.” URBAN CLIMATE, vol. 46, 2022, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101319.
- APA
- Duchêne, F., Hamdi, R., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Caluwaerts, S., De Troch, R., De Cruz, L., & Termonia, P. (2022). Downscaling ensemble climate projections to urban scale : Brussels’s future climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming. URBAN CLIMATE, 46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101319
- Chicago author-date
- Duchêne, François, Rafiq Hamdi, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Steven Caluwaerts, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley De Cruz, and Piet Termonia. 2022. “Downscaling Ensemble Climate Projections to Urban Scale : Brussels’s Future Climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C Global Warming.” URBAN CLIMATE 46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101319.
- Chicago author-date (all authors)
- Duchêne, François, Rafiq Hamdi, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Steven Caluwaerts, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley De Cruz, and Piet Termonia. 2022. “Downscaling Ensemble Climate Projections to Urban Scale : Brussels’s Future Climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C Global Warming.” URBAN CLIMATE 46. doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101319.
- Vancouver
- 1.Duchêne F, Hamdi R, Van Schaeybroeck B, Caluwaerts S, De Troch R, De Cruz L, et al. Downscaling ensemble climate projections to urban scale : Brussels’s future climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming. URBAN CLIMATE. 2022;46.
- IEEE
- [1]F. Duchêne et al., “Downscaling ensemble climate projections to urban scale : Brussels’s future climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming,” URBAN CLIMATE, vol. 46, 2022.
@article{8770765,
abstract = {{There is an increasing need to obtain climate projections for cities using an ensemble approach for uncertainty estimation. Yet, current-day computational resources are too limited to dynamically downscale GCM ensembles to urban scale. Here, a recently developed and validated statistical-dynamical computationally-cheap method is employed to downscale ten EURO-CORDEX climate projections over Brussels (Belgium) covering the period 1971-2100. Results show that, under the Paris agreement, summer mean projected temperature in Brussels will rise by 3.6 degrees C to 4.1 degrees C [+ - 0.7 degrees C] on average. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity does not increase under future global warming with even a slight decrease under heatwave (HW) conditions by 0.1 degrees C (+/- 0.1 degrees C). However, the number of HW days is projected to be 30.6% and 158.9% higher for the 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C Global Warming Levels (GWL), respectively, as compared to 1.5 degrees C GWL. The heat stress during HW periods also follows the same trend: compared to a 1.5 degrees C GWL, the number of extreme heat stress days at 2 degrees C (3 degrees C) GWL will increase by 29% (91%) on average inside the city. The results can be used in support of adaptation measures, which should be considered for future resilience of the city of Brussels.}},
articleno = {{101319}},
author = {{Duchêne, François and Hamdi, Rafiq and Van Schaeybroeck, Bert and Caluwaerts, Steven and De Troch, Rozemien and De Cruz, Lesley and Termonia, Piet}},
issn = {{2212-0955}},
journal = {{URBAN CLIMATE}},
keywords = {{Atmospheric Science,Urban Studies,Environmental Science (miscellaneous),Geography,Planning and Development,Urban climate,Downscaling,HEAT-ISLAND,EURO-CORDEX,SURFACE,IMPACT,MODEL,TEMPERATURE,WAVES,PARIS,LAND,SIMULATION}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{19}},
title = {{Downscaling ensemble climate projections to urban scale : Brussels's future climate at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101319}},
volume = {{46}},
year = {{2022}},
}
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