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Statistical data-driven analysis and modelling of total energy use in new or thoroughly renovated single-family houses

Matthias Van Hove (UGent) , Jelle Laverge (UGent) , Arnold Janssens (UGent) and Marc Delghust (UGent)
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Abstract
The subject of this paper is to analyse how the regulatory calculated energy use relates to the real total energy use for new or thoroughly renovated Flemish single-family houses where electricity is the only energy carrier. Additionally, the authors determine whether statistical data-driven models can help inform current and future home owners and tenants about their energy use (and thus also potential energy savings when applying energy saving measures). These questions are investigated by using housing datasets from the Flemish energy performance database and real energy use data from the Belgian grid operator. The paper comprises outlined database cleansing and filtering choices and enlightening statistical database analyses and figures. The results clearly demonstrate that the regulatory calculation method poorly estimates the real energy use (RMSE-/MAE-results of respectively 7227 kWh/y and 5242 kWh/y), yet both are moderately correlated (tau=.548, p<.001). Further, the statistical regression models show good results at stock level for new or thoroughly renovated Flemish single-family houses (where electricity is the only energy carrier) (adj. R2 up to 65.3%). Nevertheless, their performance at individual building level is still limited and considered too poor for inference as a considerable part of the variance is left unexplained.

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MLA
Van Hove, Matthias, et al. “Statistical Data-Driven Analysis and Modelling of Total Energy Use in New or Thoroughly Renovated Single-Family Houses.” E3S WEB OF CONFERENCES, vol. 362, 2022, doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202236213005.
APA
Van Hove, M., Laverge, J., Janssens, A., & Delghust, M. (2022). Statistical data-driven analysis and modelling of total energy use in new or thoroughly renovated single-family houses. E3S WEB OF CONFERENCES, 362. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202236213005
Chicago author-date
Van Hove, Matthias, Jelle Laverge, Arnold Janssens, and Marc Delghust. 2022. “Statistical Data-Driven Analysis and Modelling of Total Energy Use in New or Thoroughly Renovated Single-Family Houses.” In E3S WEB OF CONFERENCES. Vol. 362. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202236213005.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Van Hove, Matthias, Jelle Laverge, Arnold Janssens, and Marc Delghust. 2022. “Statistical Data-Driven Analysis and Modelling of Total Energy Use in New or Thoroughly Renovated Single-Family Houses.” In E3S WEB OF CONFERENCES. Vol. 362. doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202236213005.
Vancouver
1.
Van Hove M, Laverge J, Janssens A, Delghust M. Statistical data-driven analysis and modelling of total energy use in new or thoroughly renovated single-family houses. In: E3S WEB OF CONFERENCES. 2022.
IEEE
[1]
M. Van Hove, J. Laverge, A. Janssens, and M. Delghust, “Statistical data-driven analysis and modelling of total energy use in new or thoroughly renovated single-family houses,” in E3S WEB OF CONFERENCES, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2022, vol. 362.
@inproceedings{8764217,
  abstract     = {{The subject of this paper is to analyse how the
regulatory calculated energy use relates to the real total
energy use for new or thoroughly renovated Flemish
single-family houses where electricity is the only energy
carrier. Additionally, the authors determine whether
statistical data-driven models can help inform current
and future home owners and tenants about their energy
use (and thus also potential energy savings when
applying energy saving measures). These questions are
investigated by using housing datasets from the Flemish
energy performance database and real energy use data
from the Belgian grid operator. The paper comprises
outlined database cleansing and filtering choices and
enlightening statistical database analyses and figures.
The results clearly demonstrate that the regulatory
calculation method poorly estimates the real energy use
(RMSE-/MAE-results of respectively 7227 kWh/y and
5242 kWh/y), yet both are moderately correlated
(tau=.548, p<.001). Further, the statistical regression
models show good results at stock level for new or
thoroughly renovated Flemish single-family houses
(where electricity is the only energy carrier) (adj. R2 up
to 65.3%). Nevertheless, their performance at individual
building level is still limited and considered too poor for
inference as a considerable part of the variance is left
unexplained.}},
  articleno    = {{13005}},
  author       = {{Van Hove, Matthias and Laverge, Jelle and Janssens, Arnold and Delghust, Marc}},
  booktitle    = {{E3S WEB OF CONFERENCES}},
  issn         = {{2555-0403}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  location     = {{Copenhagen, Denmark}},
  pages        = {{8}},
  title        = {{Statistical data-driven analysis and modelling of total energy use in new or thoroughly renovated single-family houses}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202236213005}},
  volume       = {{362}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}

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