Quantification of uncertainty in Lagrangian dispersion modelling, using ECMWF’s new ERA5 ensemble
- Author
- Andy Delcloo (UGent) and Pieter De Meutter
- Organization
- Abstract
- FLEXPART is a Lagrangian particle dispersion transport model which is originally designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources. Through the years, these type of models have proven to be a very useful tool in an operational context for the protection of the population in case of accidents in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime, FLEXPART has evolved into a more comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modelling and analysis, and it can be used for a wide range of applications. The model can be used in a forward or backward mode, making it possible to trace back the source pollution contribution of a certain pollutant. To perform the FLEXPART dispersion simulations under consideration, we will use meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF), more specifically the new ERA5 10-member climate data reanalysis at a 63 km resolution. We will explore how good we can access the model uncertainty in an objective way by taking advantage of ensemble weather forecasts.
- Keywords
- ERA5, Ensemble forecasts, Uncertainty, Xenon, Background, CTBTO
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Citation
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8746486
- MLA
- Delcloo, Andy, and Pieter De Meutter. “Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble.” ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application XXVI, edited by Clemens Mensink et al., Springer, 2020, pp. 343–46, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54.
- APA
- Delcloo, A., & De Meutter, P. (2020). Quantification of uncertainty in Lagrangian dispersion modelling, using ECMWF’s new ERA5 ensemble. In C. Mensink, W. Gong, & A. Hakami (Eds.), ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI (pp. 343–346). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54
- Chicago author-date
- Delcloo, Andy, and Pieter De Meutter. 2020. “Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble.” In ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application XXVI, edited by Clemens Mensink, Wanmin Gong, and Amir Hakami, 343–46. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54.
- Chicago author-date (all authors)
- Delcloo, Andy, and Pieter De Meutter. 2020. “Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble.” In ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application XXVI, ed by. Clemens Mensink, Wanmin Gong, and Amir Hakami, 343–346. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54.
- Vancouver
- 1.Delcloo A, De Meutter P. Quantification of uncertainty in Lagrangian dispersion modelling, using ECMWF’s new ERA5 ensemble. In: Mensink C, Gong W, Hakami A, editors. ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI. Cham, Switzerland: Springer; 2020. p. 343–6.
- IEEE
- [1]A. Delcloo and P. De Meutter, “Quantification of uncertainty in Lagrangian dispersion modelling, using ECMWF’s new ERA5 ensemble,” in ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2020, pp. 343–346.
@inproceedings{8746486,
abstract = {{FLEXPART is a Lagrangian particle dispersion transport model which is originally designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources. Through the years, these type of models have proven to be a very useful tool in an operational context for the protection of the population in case of accidents in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime, FLEXPART has evolved into a more comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modelling and analysis, and it can be used for a wide range of applications. The model can be used in a forward or backward mode, making it possible to trace back the source pollution contribution of a certain pollutant. To perform the FLEXPART dispersion simulations under consideration, we will use meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF), more specifically the new ERA5 10-member climate data reanalysis at a 63 km resolution. We will explore how good we can access the model uncertainty in an objective way by taking advantage of ensemble weather forecasts.}},
author = {{Delcloo, Andy and De Meutter, Pieter}},
booktitle = {{ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI}},
editor = {{Mensink, Clemens and Gong, Wanmin and Hakami, Amir}},
isbn = {{9783030220549}},
issn = {{2213-8684}},
keywords = {{ERA5,Ensemble forecasts,Uncertainty,Xenon,Background,CTBTO}},
language = {{eng}},
location = {{Ottawa, ON, Canada}},
pages = {{343--346}},
publisher = {{Springer}},
title = {{Quantification of uncertainty in Lagrangian dispersion modelling, using ECMWF’s new ERA5 ensemble}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54}},
year = {{2020}},
}
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