Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data
- Author
- Tijs Alleman (UGent) , Jenna Vergeynst (UGent) , Lander De Visscher, Michiel Rollier (UGent) , Elena Torfs (UGent) , Ingmar Nopens (UGent) and Jan Baetens (UGent)
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- Project
- Abstract
- We present a compartmental extended SEIQRD metapopulation model for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Belgium. We demonstrate the robustness of the calibration procedure by calibrating the model using incrementally larger datasets and dissect the model results by computing the effective reproduction number at home, in workplaces, in schools, and during leisure activities. We find that schools and home contacts are important transmission pathways for SARS-CoV-2 under lockdown measures. School reopening has the potential to increase the effective reproduction number from R-e = 0.66 +/- 0.04 (95 % CI) to R-e = 1.09 +/- 0.05 (95 % CI) under lockdown measures. The model accounts for the main characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease and features a detailed representation of hospitals with parameters derived from a dataset consisting of 22 136 hospitalized patients. Social contact during the pandemic is modeled by scaling pre-pandemic contact matrices with Google Community Mobility data and with effectivity-of-contact parameters inferred from hospitalization data. The calibrated social contact model with its publically available mobility data, although coarse-grained, is a cheap and readily available alternative to social-epidemiological contact studies under lockdown measures, which were not available at the start of the pandemic.
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, Compartmental SEIQRD model, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Google Community Mobility data, COVID-19 hospital length-of-stay, Social contact effectivity, Schools closure, WUHAN
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Citation
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8734277
- MLA
- Alleman, Tijs, et al. “Assessing the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Belgium by Means of an Extended SEIQRD Model and Public Mobility Data.” EPIDEMICS, vol. 37, 2021, doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100505.
- APA
- Alleman, T., Vergeynst, J., De Visscher, L., Rollier, M., Torfs, E., Nopens, I., & Baetens, J. (2021). Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data. EPIDEMICS, 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100505
- Chicago author-date
- Alleman, Tijs, Jenna Vergeynst, Lander De Visscher, Michiel Rollier, Elena Torfs, Ingmar Nopens, and Jan Baetens. 2021. “Assessing the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Belgium by Means of an Extended SEIQRD Model and Public Mobility Data.” EPIDEMICS 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100505.
- Chicago author-date (all authors)
- Alleman, Tijs, Jenna Vergeynst, Lander De Visscher, Michiel Rollier, Elena Torfs, Ingmar Nopens, and Jan Baetens. 2021. “Assessing the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Belgium by Means of an Extended SEIQRD Model and Public Mobility Data.” EPIDEMICS 37. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100505.
- Vancouver
- 1.Alleman T, Vergeynst J, De Visscher L, Rollier M, Torfs E, Nopens I, et al. Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data. EPIDEMICS. 2021;37.
- IEEE
- [1]T. Alleman et al., “Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data,” EPIDEMICS, vol. 37, 2021.
@article{8734277,
abstract = {{We present a compartmental extended SEIQRD metapopulation model for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Belgium. We demonstrate the robustness of the calibration procedure by calibrating the model using incrementally larger datasets and dissect the model results by computing the effective reproduction number at home, in workplaces, in schools, and during leisure activities. We find that schools and home contacts are important transmission pathways for SARS-CoV-2 under lockdown measures. School reopening has the potential to increase the effective reproduction number from R-e = 0.66 +/- 0.04 (95 % CI) to R-e = 1.09 +/- 0.05 (95 % CI) under lockdown measures. The model accounts for the main characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease and features a detailed representation of hospitals with parameters derived from a dataset consisting of 22 136 hospitalized patients. Social contact during the pandemic is modeled by scaling pre-pandemic contact matrices with Google Community Mobility data and with effectivity-of-contact parameters inferred from hospitalization data. The calibrated social contact model with its publically available mobility data, although coarse-grained, is a cheap and readily available alternative to social-epidemiological contact studies under lockdown measures, which were not available at the start of the pandemic.}},
articleno = {{100505}},
author = {{Alleman, Tijs and Vergeynst, Jenna and De Visscher, Lander and Rollier, Michiel and Torfs, Elena and Nopens, Ingmar and Baetens, Jan}},
issn = {{1755-4365}},
journal = {{EPIDEMICS}},
keywords = {{SARS-CoV-2,Compartmental SEIQRD model,Non-pharmaceutical interventions,Google Community Mobility data,COVID-19 hospital length-of-stay,Social contact effectivity,Schools closure,WUHAN}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{14}},
title = {{Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100505}},
volume = {{37}},
year = {{2021}},
}
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