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Evaluation framework for sub-daily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models

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Abstract
Subdaily precipitation extremes are high-impact events that can result in flash floods, sewer system overload, or landslides. Several studies have reported an intensification of projected short-duration extreme rainfall in a warmer future climate. Traditionally, regional climate models (RCMs) are run at a coarse resolution using deep-convection parameterization for these extreme events. As computational resources are continuously ramping up, these models are run at convection-permitting resolution, thereby partly resolving the small-scale precipitation events explicitly. To date, a comprehensive evaluation of convection-permitting models is still missing. We propose an evaluation strategy for simulated subdaily rainfall extremes that summarizes the overall RCM performance. More specifically, the following metrics are addressed: the seasonal/diurnal cycle, temperature and humidity dependency, temporal scaling, and spatiotemporal clustering. The aim of this paper is as follows: (i) to provide a statistical modeling framework for some of the metrics, based on extreme value analysis, (ii) to apply the evaluation metrics to a microensemble of convection-permitting RCM simulations over Belgium against high-frequency observations, and (iii) to investigate the added value of convection-permitting scales with respect to coarser 12-km resolution. We find that convection-permitting models improved precipitation extremes on shorter time scales (i.e., hourly or 2 hourly), but not on 6-24-h time scales. Some metrics such as the diurnal cycle or the Clausius-Clapeyron rate are improved by convection-permitting models, whereas the seasonal cycle appears to be robust across spatial scales. On the other hand, the spatial dependence is poorly represented at both convection-permitting scales and coarser scales. Our framework provides perspectives for improving high-resolution atmospheric numerical modeling and datasets for hydrological applications.
Keywords
Atmospheric Science, Extreme events, Precipitation, Statistical techniques, Statistics, Time series, Climate models, Model evaluation, performance, Regional models, DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVES, PRECIPITATION EXTREMES, SPATIAL DEPENDENCE, EURO-CORDEX, INTENSITY, PROSPECTS, MAXIMA, FLOODS, FLOW

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MLA
Van de Vyver, Hans, et al. “Evaluation Framework for Sub-Daily Rainfall Extremes Simulated by Regional Climate Models.” JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, vol. 60, no. 10, 2021, pp. 1423–42, doi:10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1.
APA
Van de Vyver, H., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Troch, R., De Cruz, L., Hamdi, R., Villanueva-Birriel, C., … Termonia, P. (2021). Evaluation framework for sub-daily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 60(10), 1423–1442. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1
Chicago author-date
Van de Vyver, Hans, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley De Cruz, Rafiq Hamdi, Cecille Villanueva-Birriel, Philippe Marbaix, et al. 2021. “Evaluation Framework for Sub-Daily Rainfall Extremes Simulated by Regional Climate Models.” JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY 60 (10): 1423–42. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Van de Vyver, Hans, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley De Cruz, Rafiq Hamdi, Cecille Villanueva-Birriel, Philippe Marbaix, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Hendrik Wouters, Sam Vanden Broucke, Nicole P.M. van Lipzig, Sébastien Doutreloup, Coraline Wyard, Chloé Scholzen, Xavier Fettweis, Steven Caluwaerts, and Piet Termonia. 2021. “Evaluation Framework for Sub-Daily Rainfall Extremes Simulated by Regional Climate Models.” JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY 60 (10): 1423–1442. doi:10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1.
Vancouver
1.
Van de Vyver H, Van Schaeybroeck B, De Troch R, De Cruz L, Hamdi R, Villanueva-Birriel C, et al. Evaluation framework for sub-daily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY. 2021;60(10):1423–42.
IEEE
[1]
H. Van de Vyver et al., “Evaluation framework for sub-daily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models,” JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, vol. 60, no. 10, pp. 1423–1442, 2021.
@article{8721570,
  abstract     = {{Subdaily precipitation extremes are high-impact events that can result in flash floods, sewer system overload, or landslides. Several studies have reported an intensification of projected short-duration extreme rainfall in a warmer future climate. Traditionally, regional climate models (RCMs) are run at a coarse resolution using deep-convection parameterization for these extreme events. As computational resources are continuously ramping up, these models are run at convection-permitting resolution, thereby partly resolving the small-scale precipitation events explicitly. To date, a comprehensive evaluation of convection-permitting models is still missing. We propose an evaluation strategy for simulated subdaily rainfall extremes that summarizes the overall RCM performance. More specifically, the following metrics are addressed: the seasonal/diurnal cycle, temperature and humidity dependency, temporal scaling, and spatiotemporal clustering. The aim of this paper is as follows: (i) to provide a statistical modeling framework for some of the metrics, based on extreme value analysis, (ii) to apply the evaluation metrics to a microensemble of convection-permitting RCM simulations over Belgium against high-frequency observations, and (iii) to investigate the added value of convection-permitting scales with respect to coarser 12-km resolution. We find that convection-permitting models improved precipitation extremes on shorter time scales (i.e., hourly or 2 hourly), but not on 6-24-h time scales. Some metrics such as the diurnal cycle or the Clausius-Clapeyron rate are improved by convection-permitting models, whereas the seasonal cycle appears to be robust across spatial scales. On the other hand, the spatial dependence is poorly represented at both convection-permitting scales and coarser scales. Our framework provides perspectives for improving high-resolution atmospheric numerical modeling and datasets for hydrological applications.}},
  author       = {{Van de Vyver, Hans and Van Schaeybroeck, Bert and De Troch, Rozemien and De Cruz, Lesley and Hamdi, Rafiq and Villanueva-Birriel, Cecille and Marbaix, Philippe and van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal and Wouters, Hendrik and Vanden Broucke, Sam and van Lipzig, Nicole P.M. and Doutreloup, Sébastien and Wyard, Coraline and Scholzen, Chloé and Fettweis, Xavier and Caluwaerts, Steven and Termonia, Piet}},
  issn         = {{1558-8424}},
  journal      = {{JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY}},
  keywords     = {{Atmospheric Science,Extreme events,Precipitation,Statistical techniques,Statistics,Time series,Climate models,Model evaluation,performance,Regional models,DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVES,PRECIPITATION EXTREMES,SPATIAL DEPENDENCE,EURO-CORDEX,INTENSITY,PROSPECTS,MAXIMA,FLOODS,FLOW}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{10}},
  pages        = {{1423--1442}},
  title        = {{Evaluation framework for sub-daily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1}},
  volume       = {{60}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}

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