@article{8720424,
  abstract     = {{Many organisms escape from lethal climatological conditions by entering a resistant resting stage called diapause, which needs to be optimally timed with seasonal change. As climate change exerts selection pressure on phenology, the evolution of mean diapause timing, but also of phenotypic plasticity and bet-hedging strategies is expected. The potential of the latter strategy as a means of coping with environmental unpredictability has received little attention in the climate change literature.

Populations should be adapted to spatial variation in local conditions; contemporary patterns of phenological strategies across a geographic range may hence provide information about their evolvability. We thus extracted 458 diapause reaction norms from 60 studies. First, we correlated mean diapause timing with mean winter onset. Then we partitioned the reaction norm variance into a temporal component (phenotypic plasticity) and among-offspring variance (diversified bet-hedging) and correlated this variance composition with variability of winter onset. Mean diapause timing correlated reasonably well with mean winter onset, except for populations at high latitudes, which apparently failed to track early onsets. Variance among offspring was, however, limited and correlated only weakly with environmental variability, indicating little scope for bet-hedging. The apparent lack of phenological bet-hedging strategies may pose a risk in a less predictable climate, but we also highlight the need for more data on alternative strategies.}},
  author       = {{Joschinski, Jens and Bonte, Dries}},
  issn         = {{0030-1299}},
  journal      = {{OIKOS}},
  keywords     = {{Ecology,Evolution,Behavior and Systematics,conservative bet-hedging,critical day length,diversified bet-hedging,phenology,phenotypic plasticity,photoperiodism,CLIMATE-CHANGE,PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE,ENVIRONMENT,ADAPTATION,TIME}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{8}},
  pages        = {{1240--1250}},
  title        = {{Diapause and bet‐hedging strategies in insects : a meta‐analysis of reaction norm shapes}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1111/oik.08116}},
  volume       = {{130}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}

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