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Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia

Jiangyue Li (UGent) , Xi Chen, Alishir Kurban, Tim Van de Voorde (UGent) , Philippe De Maeyer (UGent) and Chi Zhang
(2021) ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS. 129.
Author
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Abstract
Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects of future climate change and socioeconomic development. We propose a new framework that integrates the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model and integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) was chosen to project future (2021–2100) variations in water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation was adopted to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between multiple ESs. Results showed that cropland degradation (− 4.11% to − 19.93%) and urban (+33.14% to +127.96%) and forestland (+5.31% to +25.52%) expansion will be the main forms of future land-use change in CA. Compared with the reference period (1995–2015), four ESs will exhibit different decreasing trends across CA under the three scenarios. We observed that the risk of soil erosion will increase in the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; cropland degradation and urban expansion would lead to a sharp reduction of CS and HQ in the Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin and southern Turkmenistan, especially in SSP245 scenario. We found that the weak pairwise correlations between HQ, SC and CS will be strengthened (R = 0.22–0.58; p < 0.05) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas the significant positive correlation (R = 0.47–0.60; p < 0.01) between WY and SC will be weakened. An important information/ recommendation provided by this study is that different management strategies should be designed in accordance with the major interactions among water, soil, carbon and biodiversity services.
Keywords
Ecosystem services (ESs), Representative concentration pathways (RCPs), Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), Future land use simulation (FLUS), Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST), LAND-USE SCENARIOS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, CLIMATE-CHANGE, TRADE-OFFS, URBAN EXPANSION, YIELD REDUCTION, RIVER-BASIN, VEGETATION, IMPACTS, EROSION

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MLA
Li, Jiangyue, et al. “Coupled SSPs-RCPs Scenarios to Project the Future Dynamic Variations of Water-Soil-Carbon-Biodiversity Services in Central Asia.” ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, vol. 129, 2021, doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107936.
APA
Li, J., Chen, X., Kurban, A., Van de Voorde, T., De Maeyer, P., & Zhang, C. (2021). Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, 129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107936
Chicago author-date
Li, Jiangyue, Xi Chen, Alishir Kurban, Tim Van de Voorde, Philippe De Maeyer, and Chi Zhang. 2021. “Coupled SSPs-RCPs Scenarios to Project the Future Dynamic Variations of Water-Soil-Carbon-Biodiversity Services in Central Asia.” ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107936.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Li, Jiangyue, Xi Chen, Alishir Kurban, Tim Van de Voorde, Philippe De Maeyer, and Chi Zhang. 2021. “Coupled SSPs-RCPs Scenarios to Project the Future Dynamic Variations of Water-Soil-Carbon-Biodiversity Services in Central Asia.” ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 129. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107936.
Vancouver
1.
Li J, Chen X, Kurban A, Van de Voorde T, De Maeyer P, Zhang C. Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS. 2021;129.
IEEE
[1]
J. Li, X. Chen, A. Kurban, T. Van de Voorde, P. De Maeyer, and C. Zhang, “Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia,” ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, vol. 129, 2021.
@article{8719996,
  abstract     = {{Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations 
between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to 
describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects of future climate change and socioeconomic development. We propose a new framework that integrates the future land-use simulation (FLUS) 
model and integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from the 
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) was chosen to project future (2021–2100) variations in water 
yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation was 
adopted to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between multiple ESs. Results showed that cropland degradation 
(− 4.11% to − 19.93%) and urban (+33.14% to +127.96%) and forestland (+5.31% to +25.52%) expansion will 
be the main forms of future land-use change in CA. Compared with the reference period (1995–2015), four ESs 
will exhibit different decreasing trends across CA under the three scenarios. We observed that the risk of soil 
erosion will increase in the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; cropland degradation and urban 
expansion would lead to a sharp reduction of CS and HQ in the Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin and southern 
Turkmenistan, especially in SSP245 scenario. We found that the weak pairwise correlations between HQ, SC and 
CS will be strengthened (R = 0.22–0.58; p < 0.05) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas the significant positive 
correlation (R = 0.47–0.60; p < 0.01) between WY and SC will be weakened. An important information/ 
recommendation provided by this study is that different management strategies should be designed in accordance with the major interactions among water, soil, carbon and biodiversity services.}},
  articleno    = {{107936}},
  author       = {{Li, Jiangyue and Chen, Xi and Kurban, Alishir and Van de Voorde, Tim and De Maeyer, Philippe and Zhang, Chi}},
  issn         = {{1470-160X}},
  journal      = {{ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS}},
  keywords     = {{Ecosystem services (ESs),Representative concentration pathways (RCPs),Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs),Future land use simulation (FLUS),Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and  trade-offs (InVEST),LAND-USE SCENARIOS,ECOSYSTEM SERVICES,CLIMATE-CHANGE,TRADE-OFFS,URBAN EXPANSION,YIELD REDUCTION,RIVER-BASIN,VEGETATION,IMPACTS,EROSION}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{15}},
  title        = {{Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107936}},
  volume       = {{129}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}
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