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Not so far east? The impact of Central-Eastern European imports on the Brexit referendum

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Abstract
We explore the effect of the UK’s economic links with Central-Eastern Europe and China in the case of the Brexit referendum. First, replicate and independently verify the Colantone and Stanig findings (2018a) on the effect of globalization on Brexit. Then, we extend their original analysis and demonstrate that although both Chinese and Central-Eastern European imports were significant causal determinants of the referendum’s outcome, exposure to Central-Eastern European imports was up to three times more important than exposure to Chinese imports. This may be due to cultural correlates of trade. Our analysis reveals that differences in media coverage between Central-Eastern European and Chinese economic news, as well as migrant population shares from these two regions, might have played a decisive role. Overall, the article also suggests that the import-shock method, as currently applied in the literature, is ill-suited to compare shocks with diverse origins.
Keywords
Public Administration, Sociology and Political Science, Brexit, euroscepticism, import shock, instrumental variables, trade

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MLA
Nicoli, Francesco, et al. “Not so Far East? The Impact of Central-Eastern European Imports on the Brexit Referendum.” JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY, 2021, pp. 1–20, doi:10.1080/13501763.2021.1968935.
APA
Nicoli, F., Guelen Walters, D., & Reinl, A.-K. (2021). Not so far east? The impact of Central-Eastern European imports on the Brexit referendum. JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2021.1968935
Chicago author-date
Nicoli, Francesco, Dominik Guelen Walters, and Ann-Kathrin Reinl. 2021. “Not so Far East? The Impact of Central-Eastern European Imports on the Brexit Referendum.” JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2021.1968935.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Nicoli, Francesco, Dominik Guelen Walters, and Ann-Kathrin Reinl. 2021. “Not so Far East? The Impact of Central-Eastern European Imports on the Brexit Referendum.” JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY: 1–20. doi:10.1080/13501763.2021.1968935.
Vancouver
1.
Nicoli F, Guelen Walters D, Reinl A-K. Not so far east? The impact of Central-Eastern European imports on the Brexit referendum. JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY. 2021;1–20.
IEEE
[1]
F. Nicoli, D. Guelen Walters, and A.-K. Reinl, “Not so far east? The impact of Central-Eastern European imports on the Brexit referendum,” JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY, pp. 1–20, 2021.
@article{8718117,
  abstract     = {{We explore the effect of the UK’s economic links with Central-Eastern Europe and China in the case of the Brexit referendum. First, replicate and independently verify the Colantone and Stanig findings (2018a) on the effect of globalization on Brexit. Then, we extend their original analysis and demonstrate that although both Chinese and Central-Eastern European imports were significant causal determinants of the referendum’s outcome, exposure to Central-Eastern European imports was up to three times more important than exposure to Chinese imports. This may be due to cultural correlates of trade. Our analysis reveals that differences in media coverage between Central-Eastern European and Chinese economic news, as well as migrant population shares from these two regions, might have played a decisive role. Overall, the article also suggests that the import-shock method, as currently applied in the literature, is ill-suited to compare shocks with diverse origins.}},
  author       = {{Nicoli, Francesco and Guelen Walters, Dominik and Reinl, Ann-Kathrin}},
  issn         = {{1350-1763}},
  journal      = {{JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY}},
  keywords     = {{Public Administration,Sociology and Political Science,Brexit,euroscepticism,import shock,instrumental variables,trade}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{1--20}},
  title        = {{Not so far east? The impact of Central-Eastern European imports on the Brexit referendum}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2021.1968935}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}

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