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Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development

(2021) MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS. 23(3). p.444-494
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Abstract
This paper contributes to the extant debate on port planning and development by analysing current approaches and challenges for academics and port authorities with respect to traffic forecasting. First, we examine how academics approach traffic forecasting in ports based on an extensive literature review. Next, using a sample of 28 core ports in the European Union, we provide empirical evidence on traffic forecasting challenges for, and approaches by, port authorities. Our findings are discussed by focussing on five themes, i.e. formalized planning versus ad hoc investment decisions, the types and time horizons of port planning documents, forecasting methods and data sources, attitudes towards the disclosure of traffic forecasts and methods, and institutional issues affecting traffic forecasting exercises.
Keywords
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous), Transportation, Forecasting, Strategic planning, Investment decisions, Port authority, INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS, CONTAINER THROUGHPUT, LE HAVRE, TERMINAL OPERATORS, NEURAL-NETWORKS, DETERMINANTS, MODEL, MANAGEMENT, MARITIME, DISCLOSURE

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MLA
Parola, Francesco, et al. “Revisiting Traffic Forecasting by Port Authorities in the Context of Port Planning and Development.” MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS, vol. 23, no. 3, 2021, pp. 444–94, doi:10.1057/s41278-020-00170-7.
APA
Parola, F., Satta, G., Notteboom, T., & Persico, L. (2021). Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development. MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS, 23(3), 444–494. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-020-00170-7
Chicago author-date
Parola, Francesco, Giovanni Satta, Theo Notteboom, and Luca Persico. 2021. “Revisiting Traffic Forecasting by Port Authorities in the Context of Port Planning and Development.” MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS 23 (3): 444–94. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-020-00170-7.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Parola, Francesco, Giovanni Satta, Theo Notteboom, and Luca Persico. 2021. “Revisiting Traffic Forecasting by Port Authorities in the Context of Port Planning and Development.” MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS 23 (3): 444–494. doi:10.1057/s41278-020-00170-7.
Vancouver
1.
Parola F, Satta G, Notteboom T, Persico L. Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development. MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS. 2021;23(3):444–94.
IEEE
[1]
F. Parola, G. Satta, T. Notteboom, and L. Persico, “Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development,” MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 444–494, 2021.
@article{8677433,
  abstract     = {{This paper contributes to the extant debate on port planning and development by analysing current approaches and challenges for academics and port authorities with respect to traffic forecasting. First, we examine how academics approach traffic forecasting in ports based on an extensive literature review. Next, using a sample of 28 core ports in the European Union, we provide empirical evidence on traffic forecasting challenges for, and approaches by, port authorities. Our findings are discussed by focussing on five themes, i.e. formalized planning versus ad hoc investment decisions, the types and time horizons of port planning documents, forecasting methods and data sources, attitudes towards the disclosure of traffic forecasts and methods, and institutional issues affecting traffic forecasting exercises.}},
  author       = {{Parola, Francesco and Satta, Giovanni and Notteboom, Theo and Persico, Luca}},
  issn         = {{1479-2931}},
  journal      = {{MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS}},
  keywords     = {{Economics,Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous),Transportation,Forecasting,Strategic planning,Investment decisions,Port authority,INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS,CONTAINER THROUGHPUT,LE HAVRE,TERMINAL OPERATORS,NEURAL-NETWORKS,DETERMINANTS,MODEL,MANAGEMENT,MARITIME,DISCLOSURE}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3}},
  pages        = {{444--494}},
  title        = {{Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41278-020-00170-7}},
  volume       = {{23}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}

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