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Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

(2020) SCIENCE. 368(6493). p.869-874
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Abstract
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.
Keywords
CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACKS, CO2 FERTILIZATION, LEAF RESPIRATION, CLIMATE, BIOMASS, TREE, PRODUCTIVITY, GROWTH, PHOTOSYNTHESIS, ACCLIMATION

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MLA
Sullivan, Martin J. P., et al. “Long-Term Thermal Sensitivity of Earth’s Tropical Forests.” SCIENCE, vol. 368, no. 6493, 2020, pp. 869–74, doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578.
APA
Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A. C., … Phillips, O. L. (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. SCIENCE, 368(6493), 869–874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Chicago author-date
Sullivan, Martin J. P., Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flavia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, et al. 2020. “Long-Term Thermal Sensitivity of Earth’s Tropical Forests.” SCIENCE 368 (6493): 869–74. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Sullivan, Martin J. P., Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flavia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Wannes Hubau, Beatriz Marimon, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Lan Qie, Bonaventure Sonke, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Timothy R. Baker, Roel J. W. Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, David Galbraith, Manuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Miguel N. Alexiades, Everton C. Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Alvarez Davila, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz E. O. C. Aragao, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric J. M. M. Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter Ashton, Gerardo C. Aymard, Fabricio B. Baccaro, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Plinio Barbosa Camargo, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean-Francois Bastin, Sarah A. Batterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Erika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoit Burban, Jose Luis Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Ceron, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Victor Chama Moscoso, Jerome Chave, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J. Clark, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Lola da Costa, Martin Dancak, Greta C. Dargie, Stuart Davies, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Thales de Haulleville, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Jhon del Aguila Pasquel, Geraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Jean-Louis Doucet, Aurelie Dourdain, Vincent Droissart, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Terry Erwin, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Sophie Fauset, Joice Ferreira, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Ernest Foli, Andrew Ford, Martin Gilpin, Jefferson S. Hall, Keith C. Hamer, Alan C. Hamilton, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Radim Hedl, Bruno Herault, Rafael Herrera, Niro Higuchi, Annette Hladik, Euridice Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Walter Huaraca Huasco, Kathryn J. Jeffery, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Michelle Kalamandeen, Marie Noel Kamdem Djuikouo, Elizabeth Kearsley, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, Lip Khoon Kho, Timothy Killeen, Kanehiro Kitayama, Bente Klitgaard, Alexander Koch, Nicolas Labriere, William Laurance, Susan Laurance, Miguel E. Leal, Aurora Levesley, Adriano J. N. Lima, Janvier Lisingo, Aline P. Lopes, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Tom Lovejoy, Jon C. Lovett, Richard Lowe, William E. Magnusson, Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte, Angelo Gilberto Manzatto, Jr. Marimon, Ben Hur, Andrew R. Marshall, Toby Marthews, Simone Matias de Almeida Reis, Colin Maycock, Karina Melgaco, Casimiro Mendoza, Faizah Metali, Vianet Mihindou, William Milliken, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Paulo S. Morandi, Hannah L. Mossman, Laszlo Nagy, Henrique Nascimento, David Neill, Reuben Nilus, Percy Nunez Vargas, Walter Palacios, Nadir Pallqui Camacho, Julie Peacock, Colin Pendry, Maria Cristina Penuela Mora, Georgia C. Pickavance, John Pipoly, Nigel Pitman, Maureen Playfair, Lourens Poorter, John R. Poulsen, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Richard Preziosi, Adriana Prieto, Richard B. Primack, Hirma Ramirez-Angulo, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Rejou-Mechain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa, Lily Rodriguez Bayona, Anand Roopsind, Agustin Rudas, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P. Salomao, Juliana Schietti, Douglas Sheil, Richarlly C. Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, Camila Silva Valeria, Marcos Silveira, Murielle Simo-Droissart, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, James Singh, Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Clement Stahl, Juliana Stropp, Rahayu Sukri, Terry Sunderland, Martin Svatek, Michael D. Swaine, Varun Swamy, Hermann Taedoumg, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David Taylor, Hans ter Steege, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Sean C. Thomas, Armando Torres-Lezama, Peter Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Peter van der Meer, Mark van Nieuwstadt, Hans Verbeeck, Ronald Vernimmen, Alberto Vicentini, Ima Celia Guimaraes Vieira, Emilio Vilanova Torre, Jason Vleminckx, Vincent Vos, Ophelia Wang, Lee J. T. White, Simon Willcock, John T. Woods, Verginia Wortel, Kenneth Young, Roderick Zagt, Lise Zemagho, Pieter A. Zuidema, Joeri A. Zwerts, and Oliver L. Phillips. 2020. “Long-Term Thermal Sensitivity of Earth’s Tropical Forests.” SCIENCE 368 (6493): 869–874. doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578.
Vancouver
1.
Sullivan MJP, Lewis SL, Affum-Baffoe K, Castilho C, Costa F, Sanchez AC, et al. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. SCIENCE. 2020;368(6493):869–74.
IEEE
[1]
M. J. P. Sullivan et al., “Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests,” SCIENCE, vol. 368, no. 6493, pp. 869–874, 2020.
@article{8668895,
  abstract     = {The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.},
  author       = {Sullivan, Martin J. P. and Lewis, Simon L. and Affum-Baffoe, Kofi and Castilho, Carolina and Costa, Flavia and Sanchez, Aida Cuni and Ewango, Corneille E. N. and Hubau, Wannes and Marimon, Beatriz and Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel and Qie, Lan and Sonke, Bonaventure and Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo and Baker, Timothy R. and Brienen, Roel J. W. and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Galbraith, David and Gloor, Manuel and Malhi, Yadvinder and Aiba, Shin-Ichiro and Alexiades, Miguel N. and Almeida, Everton C. and de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida and Alvarez Davila, Esteban and Loayza, Patricia Alvarez and Andrade, Ana and Vieira, Simone Aparecida and Aragao, Luiz E. O. C. and Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro and Arets, Eric J. M. M. and Arroyo, Luzmila and Ashton, Peter and Aymard, Gerardo C. and Baccaro, Fabricio B. and Banin, Lindsay F. and Baraloto, Christopher and Camargo, Plinio Barbosa and Barlow, Jos and Barroso, Jorcely and Bastin, Jean-Francois and Batterman, Sarah A. and Beeckman, Hans and Begne, Serge K. and Bennett, Amy C. and Berenguer, Erika and Berry, Nicholas and Blanc, Lilian and Boeckx, Pascal and Bogaert, Jan and Bonal, Damien and Bongers, Frans and Bradford, Matt and Brearley, Francis Q. and Brncic, Terry and Brown, Foster and Burban, Benoit and Camargo, Jose Luis and Castro, Wendeson and Ceron, Carlos and Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto and Moscoso, Victor Chama and Chave, Jerome and Chezeaux, Eric and Clark, Connie J. and de Souza, Fernanda Coelho and Collins, Murray and Comiskey, James A. and Cornejo Valverde, Fernando and Corrales Medina, Massiel and da Costa, Lola and Dancak, Martin and Dargie, Greta C. and Davies, Stuart and Davila Cardozo, Nallaret and de Haulleville, Thales and de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante and del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon and Derroire, Geraldine and Di Fiore, Anthony and Doucet, Jean-Louis and Dourdain, Aurelie and Droissart, Vincent and Fernanda Duque, Luisa and Ekoungoulou, Romeo and Elias, Fernando and Erwin, Terry and Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane and Fauset, Sophie and Ferreira, Joice and Flores Llampazo, Gerardo and Foli, Ernest and Ford, Andrew and Gilpin, Martin and Hall, Jefferson S. and Hamer, Keith C. and Hamilton, Alan C. and Harris, David J. and Hart, Terese B. and Hedl, Radim and Herault, Bruno and Herrera, Rafael and Higuchi, Niro and Hladik, Annette and Honorio Coronado, Euridice and Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau and Huaraca Huasco, Walter and Jeffery, Kathryn J. and Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana and Kalamandeen, Michelle and Djuikouo, Marie Noel Kamdem and Kearsley, Elizabeth and Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi and Kho, Lip Khoon and Killeen, Timothy and Kitayama, Kanehiro and Klitgaard, Bente and Koch, Alexander and Labriere, Nicolas and Laurance, William and Laurance, Susan and Leal, Miguel E. and Levesley, Aurora and Lima, Adriano J. N. and Lisingo, Janvier and Lopes, Aline P. and Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela and Lovejoy, Tom and Lovett, Jon C. and Lowe, Richard and Magnusson, William E. and Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba and Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto and Marimon, Ben Hur, Jr. and Marshall, Andrew R. and Marthews, Toby and de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias and Maycock, Colin and Melgaco, Karina and Mendoza, Casimiro and Metali, Faizah and Mihindou, Vianet and Milliken, William and Mitchard, Edward T. A. and Morandi, Paulo S. and Mossman, Hannah L. and Nagy, Laszlo and Nascimento, Henrique and Neill, David and Nilus, Reuben and Nunez Vargas, Percy and Palacios, Walter and Camacho, Nadir Pallqui and Peacock, Julie and Pendry, Colin and Penuela Mora, Maria Cristina and Pickavance, Georgia C. and Pipoly, John and Pitman, Nigel and Playfair, Maureen and Poorter, Lourens and Poulsen, John R. and Poulsen, Axel Dalberg and Preziosi, Richard and Prieto, Adriana and Primack, Richard B. and Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma and Reitsma, Jan and Rejou-Mechain, Maxime and Restrepo Correa, Zorayda and de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues and Rodriguez Bayona, Lily and Roopsind, Anand and Rudas, Agustin and Rutishauser, Ervan and Abu Salim, Kamariah and Salomao, Rafael P. and Schietti, Juliana and Sheil, Douglas and Silva, Richarlly C. and Silva Espejo, Javier and Valeria, Camila Silva and Silveira, Marcos and Simo-Droissart, Murielle and Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni and Singh, James and Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos and Stahl, Clement and Stropp, Juliana and Sukri, Rahayu and Sunderland, Terry and Svatek, Martin and Swaine, Michael D. and Swamy, Varun and Taedoumg, Hermann and Talbot, Joey and Taplin, James and Taylor, David and ter Steege, Hans and Terborgh, John and Thomas, Raquel and Thomas, Sean C. and Torres-Lezama, Armando and Umunay, Peter and Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis and van der Heijden, Geertje and van der Hout, Peter and van der Meer, Peter and van Nieuwstadt, Mark and Verbeeck, Hans and Vernimmen, Ronald and Vicentini, Alberto and Guimaraes Vieira, Ima Celia and Torre, Emilio Vilanova and Vleminckx, Jason and Vos, Vincent and Wang, Ophelia and White, Lee J. T. and Willcock, Simon and Woods, John T. and Wortel, Verginia and Young, Kenneth and Zagt, Roderick and Zemagho, Lise and Zuidema, Pieter A. and Zwerts, Joeri A. and Phillips, Oliver L.},
  issn         = {0036-8075},
  journal      = {SCIENCE},
  keywords     = {CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACKS,CO2 FERTILIZATION,LEAF RESPIRATION,CLIMATE,BIOMASS,TREE,PRODUCTIVITY,GROWTH,PHOTOSYNTHESIS,ACCLIMATION},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {6493},
  pages        = {869--874},
  title        = {Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578},
  volume       = {368},
  year         = {2020},
}

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