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Regional climate simulations for the impact of climate change over the CAS-CORDEX domain

Author
Organization
Abstract
The AFTER project was initiated to investigate the “Impact of climate change and climate extremes on the Agriculture and Forestry in the Europe-Russia-Turkey Region”. In this context high-resolution climate data was produced by running the RCMs ALARO-0 and REMO at a resolution of 25 km over the Central Asia (CAS)-CORDEX domain. The models were evaluated by comparing the output of ERA-Interim driven runs with CRU data over the 1980-2017 period. Different climate variables that will be used later as input for crop and vegetation models are validated. First validation results show that both RCMs reproduce realistic spatial patterns for temperature and precipitation, with biases in an acceptable range. Similar precipitation biases appear for both models with a strong wet winter bias in the east and a dry summer bias in the south-western part of the CAS-CORDEX domain. In contrast, there are differences between the RCMs in terms of spatial bias patterns for air temperature. For both variables large biases are observed over the mountainous areas but these could be largely attributed to the observational error. The climate change results over the CAS-CORDEX domain using CMIP5 driven simulations enable an assessment of climate impacts and extreme events. The REMO model is driven by three GCMs (MPIESM, HadGEM and NorESM), while ALARO is driven by CNMR-CM5. The comparison of the historical period with the future model output up to 2100 allows to estimate the response of the climate over Central Asia under the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 (only for ALARO) and RCP8.5. The AFTER consortium bridges the gap between supply and demand of climate information by implementing the newly created climate data directly into crop and vegetation models. For specific sub-regions of Latvia, Turkey and major crop areas of Russia detailed studies will be done. In addition stakeholders from different countries in the CAS-CORDEX domain are involved in discussing the scientific results.
Keywords
ALARO, REMO, climate change impact, CAS-CORDEX, RCM

Citation

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

MLA
Top, Sara, et al. “Regional Climate Simulations for the Impact of Climate Change over the CAS-CORDEX Domain.” Abstract Book ICRC-CORDEX 2019, 2019.
APA
Top, S., Aniskevich, S., Bobylev, L., Caluwaerts, S., De Cruz, L., De Maeyer, P., … Viksna, A. (2019). Regional climate simulations for the impact of climate change over the CAS-CORDEX domain. In Abstract book ICRC-CORDEX 2019. Beijing, China.
Chicago author-date
Top, Sara, Svetlana Aniskevich, Leonid Bobylev, Steven Caluwaerts, Lesley De Cruz, Philippe De Maeyer, Rozemien De Troch, et al. 2019. “Regional Climate Simulations for the Impact of Climate Change over the CAS-CORDEX Domain.” In Abstract Book ICRC-CORDEX 2019.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Top, Sara, Svetlana Aniskevich, Leonid Bobylev, Steven Caluwaerts, Lesley De Cruz, Philippe De Maeyer, Rozemien De Troch, Natalia Gnatiuk, Anne Gobin, Rafiq Hamdi, Lola Kotova, Arne Kriegsmann, Armelle Reca Remedio, Abdulla Sakalli, Andrey Sirin, Piet Termonia, Hans Van De Vyver, Bert Van Schaebroeck, and Andris Viksna. 2019. “Regional Climate Simulations for the Impact of Climate Change over the CAS-CORDEX Domain.” In Abstract Book ICRC-CORDEX 2019.
Vancouver
1.
Top S, Aniskevich S, Bobylev L, Caluwaerts S, De Cruz L, De Maeyer P, et al. Regional climate simulations for the impact of climate change over the CAS-CORDEX domain. In: Abstract book ICRC-CORDEX 2019. 2019.
IEEE
[1]
S. Top et al., “Regional climate simulations for the impact of climate change over the CAS-CORDEX domain,” in Abstract book ICRC-CORDEX 2019, Beijing, China, 2019.
@inproceedings{8668305,
  abstract     = {The AFTER project was initiated to investigate the “Impact of climate change and climate extremes on the Agriculture and Forestry in the Europe-Russia-Turkey Region”. In this context high-resolution climate data was produced by running the RCMs ALARO-0 and REMO at a resolution of 25 km over the Central Asia (CAS)-CORDEX domain. The models were evaluated by comparing the output of ERA-Interim driven runs with CRU data over the 1980-2017 period. Different climate variables that will be used later as input for crop and vegetation models are validated. 
First validation results show that both RCMs reproduce realistic spatial patterns for temperature and precipitation, with biases in an acceptable range. Similar precipitation biases appear for both models with a strong wet winter bias in the east and a dry summer bias in the south-western part of the CAS-CORDEX domain. In contrast, there are differences between the RCMs in terms of spatial bias patterns for air temperature. For both variables large biases are observed over the mountainous areas but these could be largely attributed to the observational error.
The climate change results over the CAS-CORDEX domain using CMIP5 driven simulations enable an assessment of climate impacts and extreme events. The REMO model is driven by three GCMs (MPIESM, HadGEM and NorESM), while ALARO is driven by CNMR-CM5. The comparison of the historical period with the future model output up to 2100 allows to estimate the response of the climate over Central Asia under the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 (only for ALARO) and RCP8.5.
The AFTER consortium bridges the gap between supply and demand of climate information by implementing the newly created climate data directly into crop and vegetation models. For specific sub-regions of Latvia, Turkey and major crop areas of Russia detailed studies will be done. In addition stakeholders from different countries in the CAS-CORDEX domain are involved in discussing the scientific results.},
  author       = {Top, Sara and Aniskevich, Svetlana and Bobylev, Leonid and Caluwaerts, Steven and De Cruz, Lesley and De Maeyer, Philippe and De Troch, Rozemien and Gnatiuk, Natalia and Gobin, Anne and Hamdi, Rafiq and Kotova, Lola and Kriegsmann, Arne and Reca Remedio, Armelle and Sakalli, Abdulla and Sirin, Andrey and Termonia, Piet and Van De Vyver, Hans and Van Schaebroeck, Bert and Viksna, Andris},
  booktitle    = {Abstract book ICRC-CORDEX 2019},
  keywords     = {ALARO,REMO,climate change impact,CAS-CORDEX,RCM},
  language     = {eng},
  location     = {Beijing, China},
  title        = {Regional climate simulations for the impact of climate change over the CAS-CORDEX domain},
  url          = {https://icrc-cordex2019.cordex.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/11/AbstractBook_20191114.pdf},
  year         = {2019},
}