@article{8655394,
  abstract     = {{Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.}},
  author       = {{Hubau, Wannes and Lewis, Simon L. and Phillips, Oliver L. and Affum-Baffoe, Kofi and Beeckman, Hans and Cuní-Sanchez, Aida and Daniels, Armandu K. and Ewango, Corneille E. N. and Fauset, Sophie and Mukinzi, Jacques M. and Sheil, Douglas and Sonké, Bonaventure and Sullivan, Martin J. P. and Sunderland, Terry C. H. and Taedoumg, Hermann and Thomas, Sean C. and White, Lee J. T. and Abernethy, Katharine A. and Adu-Bredu, Stephen and Amani, Christian A. and Baker, Timothy R. and Banin, Lindsay F. and Baya, Fidèle and Begne, Serge K. and Bennett, Amy C. and Benedet, Fabrice and Bitariho, Robert and Bocko, Yannick E. and Boeckx, Pascal and Boundja, Patrick and Brienen, Roel J. W. and Brncic, Terry and Chezeaux, Eric and Chuyong, George B. and Clark, Connie J. and Collins, Murray and Comiskey, James A. and Coomes, David A. and Dargie, Greta C. and de Haulleville, Thales and Kamdem, Marie Noel Djuikouo and Doucet, Jean-Louis and Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Fofanah, Alusine and Foli, Ernest G. and Gilpin, Martin and Gloor, Emanuel and Gonmadje, Christelle and Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie and Hall, Jefferson S. and Hamilton, Alan C. and Harris, David J. and Hart, Terese B. and Hockemba, Mireille B. N. and Hladik, Annette and Ifo, Suspense A. and Jeffery, Kathryn J. and Jucker, Tommaso and Kasongo Yakusu, Emmanuel and Kearsley, Elizabeth and Kenfack, David and Koch, Alexander and Leal, Miguel E. and Levesley, Aurora and Lindsell, Jeremy A. and Lisingo, Janvier and Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela and Lovett, Jon C. and Makana, Jean-Remy and Malhi, Yadvinder and Marshall, Andrew R. and Martin, Jim and Martin, Emanuel H. and Mbayu, Faustin M. and Medjibe, Vincent P. and Mihindou, Vianet and Mitchard, Edward T. A. and Moore, Sam and Munishi, Pantaleo K. T. and Bengone, Natacha Nssi and Ojo, Lucas and Ondo, Fidèle Evouna and Peh, Kelvin S.-H. and Pickavance, Georgia C. and Poulsen, Axel Dalberg and Poulsen, John R. and Qie, Lan and Reitsma, Jan and Rovero, Francesco and Swaine, Michael D. and Talbot, Joey and Taplin, James and Taylor, David M. and Thomas, Duncan W. and Toirambe, Benjamin and Mukendi, John Tshibamba and Tuagben, Darlington and Umunay, Peter M. and van der Heijden, Geertje M. F. and Verbeeck, Hans and Vleminckx, Jason and Willcock, Simon and Wöll, Hannsjörg and Woods, John T. and Zemagho, Lise}},
  issn         = {{0028-0836}},
  journal      = {{NATURE}},
  keywords     = {{Multidisciplinary,RAIN-FORESTS,DROUGHT SENSITIVITY,WOOD PRODUCTIVITY,CO2 FERTILIZATION,CLIMATE,BIOMASS,PHOTOSYNTHESIS,ACCLIMATION,RESPIRATION,PATTERNS,cavelab}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{7797}},
  pages        = {{80--87}},
  title        = {{Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0}},
  volume       = {{579}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}

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