Advanced search
1 file | 1.79 MB Add to list

Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models

(2020) CLIMATE DYNAMICS. 54(3-4). p.1267-1280
Author
Organization
Abstract
Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change, contrasting sensitivities with respect to resolution (CPM vs. models with parameterized convection) are found for different parts of the world. In this study, we explore to which extent this contrasting sensitivity is due to the specific characteristics of the model or due to the characteristics of the region. Therefore, we examine the results of 360 years of climate model data from two different climate models (COSMO-CLM driven by EC-EARTH and ALARO-0 driven by CNRM ARPEGE) both at convection-permitting scale (CPS, similar to 3 km resolution) and non-convection-permitting scale (non-CPS, 12.5 km resolution) over two distinct regions (flatland vs. hilly region) in Belgium. We found that both models show an overall consistent scale-dependency of the future increase in hourly extreme precipitation for day-time. More specifically, both models yield a larger discrepancy in the day-time climate change signal between CPS and non-CPS for extreme precipitation over flatland (Flanders) than for orographically induced extreme precipitation (Ardennes). This result is interesting, since both RCMs are very different (e.g., in terms of model physics and driving GCM) and use very different ways to represent deep convection processes. Despite those model differences, the scale-dependency of projected precipitation extremes is surprisingly similar in both models, suggesting that the this scale-dependency is more dependent on the characteristics of the region, than on the model used.
Keywords
CORDEX.be, Convection-permitting simulations, COSMO-CLM, ALARO-0, Extreme hourly precipitation, Climate change, Parameterization, PARAMETRIZATION, SIMULATIONS, PARAMETERIZATION, IMPACT, CLOUD, CHALLENGES, FEEDBACK, SCHEME

Downloads

  • (...).pdf
    • full text
    • |
    • UGent only
    • |
    • PDF
    • |
    • 1.79 MB

Citation

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

MLA
Helsen, Samuel, et al. “Consistent Scale-Dependency of Future Increases in Hourly Extreme Precipitation in Two Convection-Permitting Climate Models.” CLIMATE DYNAMICS, vol. 54, no. 3–4, 2020, pp. 1267–80.
APA
Helsen, S., van Lipzig, N. P., Demuzere, M., Vanden Broucke, S., Caluwaerts, S., De Cruz, L., … Wouters, H. (2020). Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models. CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 54(3–4), 1267–1280.
Chicago author-date
Helsen, Samuel, Nicole PM van Lipzig, Matthias Demuzere, Sam Vanden Broucke, Steven Caluwaerts, Lesley De Cruz, Rozemien De Troch, et al. 2020. “Consistent Scale-Dependency of Future Increases in Hourly Extreme Precipitation in Two Convection-Permitting Climate Models.” CLIMATE DYNAMICS 54 (3–4): 1267–80.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Helsen, Samuel, Nicole PM van Lipzig, Matthias Demuzere, Sam Vanden Broucke, Steven Caluwaerts, Lesley De Cruz, Rozemien De Troch, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, and Hendrik Wouters. 2020. “Consistent Scale-Dependency of Future Increases in Hourly Extreme Precipitation in Two Convection-Permitting Climate Models.” CLIMATE DYNAMICS 54 (3–4): 1267–1280.
Vancouver
1.
Helsen S, van Lipzig NP, Demuzere M, Vanden Broucke S, Caluwaerts S, De Cruz L, et al. Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models. CLIMATE DYNAMICS. 2020;54(3–4):1267–80.
IEEE
[1]
S. Helsen et al., “Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models,” CLIMATE DYNAMICS, vol. 54, no. 3–4, pp. 1267–1280, 2020.
@article{8637388,
  abstract     = {Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change, contrasting sensitivities with respect to resolution (CPM vs. models with parameterized convection) are found for different parts of the world. In this study, we explore to which extent this contrasting sensitivity is due to the specific characteristics of the model or due to the characteristics of the region. Therefore, we examine the results of 360 years of climate model data from two different climate models (COSMO-CLM driven by EC-EARTH and ALARO-0 driven by CNRM ARPEGE) both at convection-permitting scale (CPS, similar to 3 km resolution) and non-convection-permitting scale (non-CPS, 12.5 km resolution) over two distinct regions (flatland vs. hilly region) in Belgium. We found that both models show an overall consistent scale-dependency of the future increase in hourly extreme precipitation for day-time. More specifically, both models yield a larger discrepancy in the day-time climate change signal between CPS and non-CPS for extreme precipitation over flatland (Flanders) than for orographically induced extreme precipitation (Ardennes). This result is interesting, since both RCMs are very different (e.g., in terms of model physics and driving GCM) and use very different ways to represent deep convection processes. Despite those model differences, the scale-dependency of projected precipitation extremes is surprisingly similar in both models, suggesting that the this scale-dependency is more dependent on the characteristics of the region, than on the model used.},
  author       = {Helsen, Samuel and van Lipzig, Nicole PM and Demuzere, Matthias and Vanden Broucke, Sam and Caluwaerts, Steven and De Cruz, Lesley and De Troch, Rozemien and Hamdi, Rafiq and Termonia, Piet and Van Schaeybroeck, Bert and Wouters, Hendrik},
  issn         = {0930-7575},
  journal      = {CLIMATE DYNAMICS},
  keywords     = {CORDEX.be,Convection-permitting simulations,COSMO-CLM,ALARO-0,Extreme hourly precipitation,Climate change,Parameterization,PARAMETRIZATION,SIMULATIONS,PARAMETERIZATION,IMPACT,CLOUD,CHALLENGES,FEEDBACK,SCHEME},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3-4},
  pages        = {1267--1280},
  title        = {Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05056-w},
  volume       = {54},
  year         = {2020},
}

Altmetric
View in Altmetric
Web of Science
Times cited: