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A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions : a case study on substituting meat by fish

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Abstract
Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.
Keywords
Risk-benefit assessment (RBA), Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), Usual intake difference model, Food-based dietary guidelines, Substitution, Health impact, INTENSE SWEETENERS, TIERED APPROACH, SUGAR INTAKE, HUMAN HEALTH, CONSUMPTION, MODEL, CONTAMINANTS, VARIABILITY, COUNTRIES, EXPOSURE

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MLA
Thomsen, Sofie Theresa et al. “A Probabilistic Approach for Risk-benefit Assessment of Food Substitutions : a Case Study on Substituting Meat by Fish.” FOOD AND CHEMICAL TOXICOLOGY 126 (2019): 79–96. Print.
APA
Thomsen, S. T., de Boer, W., Pires, S. M., Devleesschauwer, B., Fagt, S., Andersen, R., Poulsen, M., et al. (2019). A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions : a case study on substituting meat by fish. FOOD AND CHEMICAL TOXICOLOGY, 126, 79–96.
Chicago author-date
Thomsen, Sofie Theresa, Waldo de Boer, Sara M Pires, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Sisse Fagt, Rikke Andersen, Morten Poulsen, and Hilko van der Voet. 2019. “A Probabilistic Approach for Risk-benefit Assessment of Food Substitutions : a Case Study on Substituting Meat by Fish.” Food and Chemical Toxicology 126: 79–96.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Thomsen, Sofie Theresa, Waldo de Boer, Sara M Pires, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Sisse Fagt, Rikke Andersen, Morten Poulsen, and Hilko van der Voet. 2019. “A Probabilistic Approach for Risk-benefit Assessment of Food Substitutions : a Case Study on Substituting Meat by Fish.” Food and Chemical Toxicology 126: 79–96.
Vancouver
1.
Thomsen ST, de Boer W, Pires SM, Devleesschauwer B, Fagt S, Andersen R, et al. A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions : a case study on substituting meat by fish. FOOD AND CHEMICAL TOXICOLOGY. 2019;126:79–96.
IEEE
[1]
S. T. Thomsen et al., “A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions : a case study on substituting meat by fish,” FOOD AND CHEMICAL TOXICOLOGY, vol. 126, pp. 79–96, 2019.
@article{8601704,
  abstract     = {Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods.
We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability.
We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men.
This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.},
  author       = {Thomsen, Sofie Theresa and de Boer, Waldo and Pires, Sara M and Devleesschauwer, Brecht and Fagt, Sisse and Andersen, Rikke and Poulsen, Morten and van der Voet, Hilko},
  issn         = {0278-6915},
  journal      = {FOOD AND CHEMICAL TOXICOLOGY},
  keywords     = {Risk-benefit assessment (RBA),Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY),Usual intake difference model,Food-based dietary guidelines,Substitution,Health impact,INTENSE SWEETENERS,TIERED APPROACH,SUGAR INTAKE,HUMAN HEALTH,CONSUMPTION,MODEL,CONTAMINANTS,VARIABILITY,COUNTRIES,EXPOSURE},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {79--96},
  title        = {A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions : a case study on substituting meat by fish},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fct.2019.02.018},
  volume       = {126},
  year         = {2019},
}

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