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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

(2018) LANCET. 392(10159). p.2091-2138
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Abstract
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59.4 (IQR 35.4-67.3), ranging from a low of 11.6 (95% uncertainty interval 9.6-14.0) to a high of 84.9 (83.1-86.7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attaimnent by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health -related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health -related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence -related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains curative interventions in the case of NCDs towards multisectoral, prevention -oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the S DGs. What is clear is that our actions or inaction today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
Keywords
CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE, SMOKING PREVALENCE, GENDER-DIFFERENCES, ALCOHOL-USE, SUICIDE, PERSPECTIVE, CONSUMPTION, PREVENTION, TRANSITION, CESSATION

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MLA
Lozano, Rafael, Nancy Fullman, Degu Abate, et al. “Measuring Progress from 1990 to 2017 and Projecting Attainment to 2030 of the Health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 Countries and Territories : a Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.” LANCET 392.10159 (2018): 2091–2138. Print.
APA
Lozano, Rafael, Fullman, N., Abate, D., Abay, S. M., Abbafati, C., Abbasi, N., Abbastabar, H., et al. (2018). Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. LANCET, 392(10159), 2091–2138.
Chicago author-date
Lozano, Rafael, Nancy Fullman, Degu Abate, Solomon M Abay, Cristiana Abbafati, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, et al. 2018. “Measuring Progress from 1990 to 2017 and Projecting Attainment to 2030 of the Health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 Countries and Territories : a Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.” Lancet 392 (10159): 2091–2138.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Lozano, Rafael, Nancy Fullman, Degu Abate, Solomon M Abay, Cristiana Abbafati, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Jemal Abdela, Ahmed Abdelalim, Omar Abdel-Rahman, Alireza Abdi, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Nebiyu Dereje Abebe, Zegeye Abebe, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Semaw F Abera, Olifan Zewdie Abil, Victor Aboyans, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh, Gebre Y Abyu, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Pawan Acharya, Abdu A Adamu, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mina G Adib, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Jose C Adsuar, Mohsen Afarideh, Mahdi Afshari, Ashkan Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Sargis Aghasi Aghayan, Dominic Agius, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Hamid Ahmadieh, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Sayem Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ali S Akanda, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Mohammed Akibu, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Tomi Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Tahiya Alam, Ammar Albujeer, Animut Alebel, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ala’a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Christine A Allen, Ali Almasi, Fatma Al-Maskari, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Jordi Alonso, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T Amare, Kebede Amenu, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Nahla Hamed Anber, Jason A Anderson, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mina Anjomshoa, Hossein Ansari, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Lambert Tetteh Appiah, Olatunde Aremu, Habtamu Abera Areri, Johan Ärnlöv, Monika Arora, Krishna K Aryal, Hamid Asayesh, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Rana Jawad Asghar, Reza Assadi, Zerihun Ataro, Suleman Atique, Sachin R Atre, Madhu Sudhan Atteraya, Marcel Ausloos, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Euripide F G A Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Henok Tadesse Ayele, Yohanes Ayele, Rakesh Ayer, Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh, Peter S Azzopardi, Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Arefeh Babazadeh, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Ayele Geleto Bali, Maciej Banach, Amitava Banerjee, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Amrit Banstola, Aleksandra Barac, Miguel A Barboza, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Lope H Barrero, Celine M Barthelemy, Quique Bassat, Arindam Basu, Sanjay Basu, Robert J Battista, Bernhard T Baune, Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay, Saba Abraham Belay, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Michelle L Bell, Aminu K Bello, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Habib Benzian, Adugnaw Berhane, Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe, Adam E Berman, Eduardo Bernabe, Robert S Bernstein, Gregory J Bertolacci, Mircea Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Anil Bhansali, Suraj Bhattarai, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Molly H Biehl, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Nigus Bililign, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Sait Mentes Birlik, Charles Birungi, Donal Bisanzio, Tuhin Biswas, Helen Bitew, Hailemichael Bizuneh, Espen Bjertness, Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa, Soufiane Boufous, Rupert Bourne, Kayvan Bozorgmehr, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Michael Brainin, Luisa C Brant, Michael Brauer, Alexandra Brazinova, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle Britton, Traolach Brugha, Gene Bukhman, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Charlton SKH Callender, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Jorge Cano, Josip Car, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan J Carrero, Austin Carter, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Franz Castro, Kate Causey, Alanur Çavlin, Kelly M Cercy, Ester Cerin, Yazan Chaiah, Julian Chalek, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Chang, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Ken Lee Chin, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Jee-Young J Choi, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam J Christopher, Sheng-Chia Chung, Flavia M Cicuttini, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, Rafael M Claro, Thomas Khaled Dwayne Claßen, Aaron J Cohen, Daniel Collado-Mateo, Cyrus Cooper, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Leslie Cornaby, Monica Cortinovis, Megan Costa, Ewerton Cousin, Elizabeth A Cromwell, Christopher Stephen Crowe, Matthew Cunningham, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Paul I Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Siddharth K Das, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Aditya Prasad Dash, Adrian C Davis, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Kairat Davletov, Anand Dayama, Barbora de Courten, Diego De Leo, Jan-Walter De Neve, Hans De Steur, Meaza Girma Degefa, Louisa Degenhardt, Tizta Tilahun Degfie, Selina Deiparine, Robert P Dellavalle, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Balem Demtsu, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Getenet Ayalew Dessie, Subhojit Dey, Samath D Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Daniel Dicker, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, Eric L Ding, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc Do, Klara Dokova, David Teye Doku, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Tim Robert Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Bruce B Duncan, Andre R Duraes, Soheil Ebrahimpour, David Edvardsson, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Erika Eldrenkamp, Ziad El-Khatib, Iqbal RF Elyazar, Ahmadali Enayati, Aman Yesuf Endries, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Sadaf Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Mahdi Fakhar, Hamed Fakhim, Jessica Fanzo, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Farzaneh Farhadi, Talha A Farid, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, Andrea Farioli, Andre Faro, Maryam S Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Hossein Farzam, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Mir Sohail Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Andrea B Feigl, Wubalem Fekadu, Rachel Feldman, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Joao C Fernandes, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Irina Filip, Samuel Finegold, Jonas David Finger, Florian Fischer, Christina Fitzmaurice, Luisa Sorio Flor, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, Tahvi D Frank, Richard Charles Franklin, Takeshi Fukumoto, Kai Fukutaki, John E Fuller, Thomas Fürst, João M Furtado, Emmanuela Gakidou, Silvano Gallus, Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe, Ron T Gansevoort, Ana Cristina Garcia, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Miguel A Garcia-Gordillo, William M Gardner, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Teshome Gebre, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Bereket Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Johanna M Geleijnse, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Sefonias Getachew, Peter W Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman, Hesam Ghiasvand, Mamata Ghimire, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Simona Giampaoli, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Giorgia Giussani, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Ellen M Goldberg, Srinivas Goli, Philimon N Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Taren M Gorman, Atsushi Goto, Alessandra C Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Ayman Grada, Max G Griswold, Giuseppe Grosso, Harish Chander C Gugnani, Francis Guillemin, Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes, Yuming Guo, Prakash C Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Giang Hai Ha, Juanita A Haagsma, Vladimir Hachinski, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Michael Tamene Haile, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J Hankey, Hilda L Harb, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep Maria Haro, Mehedi Hasan, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Caitlin N Hawley, Simon I Hay, Yihua He, Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Mohamed I Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Behnam Heidari, Mohsen Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Claudiu Herteliu, Behzad Heydarpour, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Sousan Heydarpour, Desalegn T Hibstu, Martha Híjar, Hans W Hoek, Daniel J Hoffman, Michael K Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Praveen Hoogar, Nobuyuki Horita, H Dean Hosgood, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Peter J Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Mohamed Hsairi, Thomas Hsiao, Guoqing Hu, John J Huang, Caitlyn Hughes, Chantal K Huynh, Ehimario U Igumbor, Chad Thomas Ikeda, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Farhad Islami, Rebecca Q Ivers, Neda Izadi, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Leila Jahangiry, Nader Jahanmehr, Sudhir Kumar Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Moti Tolera Jalu, Amr A Jamal, Spencer L James, Simerjot K Jassal, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S Ji, Catherine O Johnson, Sarah C Johnson, Jost B Jonas, Jitendra Jonnagaddala, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Ankur Joshi, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Banayya Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, Madhanraj K, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Molla Kahssay, Rizwan Kalani, Umesh Kapil, Manoochehr Karami, Behzad Karami Matin, Marina Karanikolos, Narges Karimi, Seyed M Karimi, Hamidreza Karimi-Sari, Amir Kasaeian, Dessalegn H Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes Kassa, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Zhila Kazemi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Dhruv Satish Kazi, Prakash KC, Seifu Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Laura Kemmer, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Saleh Khader, Behzad 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Lafranconi, Abraham K Lagat, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Hilton Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Prabhat Lamichhane, Qing Lan, Justin J Lang, Van C Lansingh, Sonia Lansky, Heidi J Larson, Anders O Larsson, Dennis Odai Laryea, Zohra S Lassi, Arman Latifi, Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau, Avula Laxmaiah, Jeffrey V Lazarus, Janet L Leasher, Georgy Lebedev, Jorge R Ledesma, James B Lee, Paul H Lee, Andrew T Leever, James Leigh, Mall Leinsalu, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Janni Leung, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Xiaohong Li, Yichong Li, Juan Liang, Xiaofeng Liang, Misgan Legesse Liben, Lee-Ling Lim, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Giancarlo Logroscino, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A Lotufo, Lydia R Lucchesi, Ronan A Lyons, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Mark T Mackay, Emilie R Maddison, Fabiana Madotto, Dhaval P Maghavani, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Marek Majdan, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Ana-Laura Manda, Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho, Srikanth Mangalam, Helena Manguerra, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Joemer C Maravilla, Wagner Marcenes, Ashley Marks, Randall V Martin, Sheila C O Martins, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Ira Martopullo, Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson, Benjamin Ballard Massenburg, Manu Raj Mathur, Pallab K Maulik, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Brian J McMahon, Suresh Mehata, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ravi Mehrotra, Kala M Mehta, Varshil Mehta, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez, Tesfa Mekonen, Tefera C Chane Mekonnen, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Peter T N Memiah, Ziad A Memish, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, George A Mensah, Gert B M Mensink, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Anoushka I Millear, Ted R Miller, Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie, George J 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Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Pedro R Olivares, Helen Elizabeth Olsen, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Kanyin L Ong, Sok King Ong, Anu Mary Oommen, John Nelson Opio, Eyal Oren, Andrei Oros, Doris D V Ortega-Altamirano, Alberto Ortiz, Justin R Ortiz, Eduardo Ortiz-Panozo, Erika Ota, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Smita Pakhale, Abhijit P Pakhare, Wen-Harn Pan, Adrian Pana, Basant Kumar Panda, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Jeyaraj Durai Pandian, Nikolaos Papantoniou, Eun-Kee Park, Charles D H Parry, Hadi Parsian, Shanti Patel, Sanghamitra Pati, Ajay Patle, George C Patton, Vishnupriya Rao Paturi, Deepak Paudel, Katherine R Paulson, Neil Pearce, Emmanuel K Peprah, David M Pereira, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, William A Petri, Max Petzold, Michael R Phillips, David M Pigott, Julian David Pillay, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Martin Pletcher, Constance Dimity Pond, Maarten J Postma, Akram Pourshams, Hossein 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Sabde, Perminder S Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Ehsan Sadeghi, Hosein Safari, Yahya Safari, Roya Safari-Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Haniye Sadat Sajadi, Nasir Salam, Joseph S Salama, Payman Salamati, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Joshua A Salomon, Sundeep Santosh Salvi, Inbal Salz, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Mayank Sardana, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Miloje Savic, Arundhati R Sawant, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Mete Saylan, Mehdi Sayyah, Elke Schaeffner, Maria Inês Schmidt, Ione J C Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Soraya Seedat, Mario Sekerija, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván-Mori, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Katya Anne Shackelford, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Amira A Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammad Bagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Heidar Sharafi, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Sharad Kumar Sharma, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Muki Shehu Shey, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Chloe Shields, Girma Temam Shifa, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Shreya Shirude, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Farhad Shokraneh, Haitham Shoman, Mark G Shrime, Sharvari Rahul Shukla, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Abla Mehio Sibai, Tariq J Siddiqi, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Naris Silpakit, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Natacha Torres da Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Jasvinder A Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Om Prakash Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Eirini Skiadaresi, Karen Sliwa, Amanda E Smith, Mari Smith, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Soheila Sobhani, Michael Soljak, Moslem Soofi, Masoud Soosaraei, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B Soriano, Sergey Soshnikov, Ireneous N Soyiri, Angela Spinelli, Luciano A Sposato, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Raghavendra Guru Srinivasan, Vinay Srinivasan, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Vladimir I Starodubov, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nadine Steckling, Dan J Stein, Leo G Stewart, Leo Stockfelt, Mark A Stokes, Kurt Straif, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bruno F Sunguya, Patrick John Sur, Ipsita Sutradhar, Bryan L Sykes, P N Sylaja, Dillon O Sylte, Cassandra E I Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Nikhil Tandon, Frank C Tanser, Aberash Abay Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Nuno Taveira, Nega Yimer Tawye, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Tigist Gashaw Tekalign, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Habtamu Temesgen, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Omar Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Manaye Yihune Teshale, 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Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Luis Zavala-Arciniega, Desalegn Tegabu Zegeye, Elias Asfaw Zegeye, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Kazem Zendehdel, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Anthony Lin Zhang, Xueying Zhang, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Sanjay Zodpey, Leo Zoeckler, Inbar Zucker, Liesel Joanna J Zuhlke, Stephen S Lim, and Christopher J L Murray. 2018. “Measuring Progress from 1990 to 2017 and Projecting Attainment to 2030 of the Health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 Countries and Territories : a Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.” Lancet 392 (10159): 2091–2138.
Vancouver
1.
Lozano R, Fullman N, Abate D, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, et al. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. LANCET. 2018;392(10159):2091–138.
IEEE
[1]
R. Lozano et al., “Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017,” LANCET, vol. 392, no. 10159, pp. 2091–2138, 2018.
@article{8583590,
  abstract     = {Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. 
Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. 
Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59.4 (IQR 35.4-67.3), ranging from a low of 11.6 (95% uncertainty interval 9.6-14.0) to a high of 84.9 (83.1-86.7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attaimnent by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.
Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health -related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health -related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence -related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains curative interventions in the case of NCDs towards multisectoral, prevention -oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the S DGs. What is clear is that our actions or inaction today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.},
  author       = {Lozano, Rafael and Fullman, Nancy and Abate, Degu and Abay, Solomon M and Abbafati, Cristiana and Abbasi, Nooshin and Abbastabar, Hedayat and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abdela, Jemal and Abdelalim, Ahmed and Abdel-Rahman, Omar and Abdi, Alireza and Abdollahpour, Ibrahim and Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi and Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje and Abebe, Zegeye and Abejie, Ayenew Negesse and Abera, Semaw F and Abil, Olifan Zewdie and Aboyans, Victor and Abraha, Haftom Niguse and Abrham, Aklilu Roba and Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me and Abyu, Gebre Y and Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou and Acharya, Dilaram and Acharya, Pawan and Adamu, Abdu A and Adebayo, Oladimeji M and Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi and Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji and Adekanmbi, Victor and Adetokunboh, Olatunji O and Adhena, Beyene Meressa and Adhikari, Tara Ballav and Adib, Mina G and Adou, Arsène Kouablan and Adsuar, Jose C and Afarideh, Mohsen and Afshari, Mahdi and Afshin, Ashkan and Agarwal, Gina and Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi and Agius, Dominic and Agrawal, Anurag and Agrawal, Sutapa and Ahmadi, Alireza and Ahmadi, Mehdi and Ahmadieh, Hamid and Ahmed, Muktar Beshir and Ahmed, Sayem and Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie and Akanda, Ali S and Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil and Akibu, Mohammed and Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola and Akinyemiju, Tomi and Akseer, Nadia and Alahdab, Fares and Al-Aly, Ziyad and Alam, Khurshid and Alam, Tahiya and Albujeer, Ammar and Alebel, Animut and Alene, Kefyalew Addis and Al-Eyadhy, Ayman and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Alijanzadeh, Mehran and Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza and Aljunid, Syed Mohamed and Alkerwi, Ala'a and Alla, François and Allebeck, Peter and Allen, Christine A and Almasi, Ali and Al-Maskari, Fatma and Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M and Alonso, Jordi and Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M and Alsharif, Ubai and Altirkawi, Khalid and Alvis-Guzman, Nelson and Amare, Azmeraw T and Amenu, Kebede and Amini, Erfan and Ammar, Walid and Anber, Nahla Hamed and Anderson, Jason A and Andrei, Catalina Liliana and Androudi, Sofia and Animut, Megbaru Debalkie and Anjomshoa, Mina and Ansari, Hossein and Ansariadi, Ansariadi and Ansha, Mustafa Geleto and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T and Anwari, Palwasha and Appiah, Lambert Tetteh and Aremu, Olatunde and Areri, Habtamu Abera and Ärnlöv, Johan and Arora, Monika and Aryal, Krishna K and Asayesh, Hamid and Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay and Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal and Asghar, Rana Jawad and Assadi, Reza and Ataro, Zerihun and Atique, Suleman and Atre, Sachin R and Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan and Ausloos, Marcel and Avila-Burgos, Leticia and Avokpaho, Euripide F G A and Awasthi, Ashish and Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina and Ayele, Henok Tadesse and Ayele, Yohanes and Ayer, Rakesh and Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza and Azzopardi, Peter S and Azzopardi-Muscat, Natasha and Babalola, Tesleem Kayode and Babazadeh, Arefeh and Badali, Hamid and Badawi, Alaa and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Bali, Ayele Geleto and Banach, Maciej and Banerjee, Amitava and Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar and Banstola, Amrit and Barac, Aleksandra and Barboza, Miguel A and Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn and Bärnighausen, Till Winfried and Barrero, Lope H and Barthelemy, Celine M and Bassat, Quique and Basu, Arindam and Basu, Sanjay and Battista, Robert J and Baune, Bernhard T and Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw and Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad and Bedi, Neeraj and Beghi, Ettore and Behzadifar, Masoud and Behzadifar, Meysam and Béjot, Yannick and Bekele, Bayu Begashaw and Belachew, Abate Bekele and Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus and Belay, Saba Abraham and Belay, Yihalem Abebe and Bell, Michelle L and Bello, Aminu K and Bennett, Derrick A and Bensenor, Isabela M and Benzian, Habib and Berhane, Adugnaw and Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam and Berman, Adam E and Bernabe, Eduardo and Bernstein, Robert S and Bertolacci, Gregory J and Beuran, Mircea and Beyranvand, Tina and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhalla, Ashish and Bhansali, Anil and Bhattarai, Suraj and Bhaumik, Soumyadeep and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Biadgo, Belete and Biehl, Molly H and Bijani, Ali and Bikbov, Boris and Bililign, Nigus and Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat and Birlik, Sait Mentes and Birungi, Charles and Bisanzio, Donal and Biswas, Tuhin and Bitew, Helen and Bizuneh, Hailemichael and Bjertness, Espen and Bobasa, Eshetu Mulisa and Boufous, Soufiane and Bourne, Rupert and Bozorgmehr, Kayvan and Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi and Brainin, Michael and Brant, Luisa C and Brauer, Michael and Brazinova, Alexandra and Breitborde, Nicholas J K and Briant, Paul Svitil and Britton, Gabrielle and Brugha, Traolach and Bukhman, Gene and Busse, Reinhard and Butt, Zahid A and Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero and Callender, Charlton SKH and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R and Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar and Cano, Jorge and Car, Josip and Car, Mate and Cárdenas, Rosario and Carrero, Juan J and Carter, Austin and Carvalho, Félix and Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline and Castro, Franz and Causey, Kate and Çavlin, Alanur and Cercy, Kelly M and Cerin, Ester and Chaiah, Yazan and Chalek, Julian and Chang, Hsing-Yi and Chang, Jung-Chen and Chattopadhyay, Aparajita and Chattu, Vijay Kumar and Chaturvedi, Pankaj and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chin, Ken Lee and Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe and Chitheer, Abdulaal and Choi, Jee-Young J and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christensen, Hanne and Christopher, Devasahayam J and Chung, Sheng-Chia and Cicuttini, Flavia M and Ciobanu, Liliana G and Cirillo, Massimo and Claro, Rafael M and Claßen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne and Cohen, Aaron J and Collado-Mateo, Daniel and Cooper, Cyrus and Cooper, Leslie Trumbull and Cornaby, Leslie and Cortinovis, Monica and Costa, Megan and Cousin, Ewerton and Cromwell, Elizabeth A and Crowe, Christopher Stephen and Cunningham, Matthew and Daba, Alemneh Kabeta and Dadi, Abel Fekadu and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Dang, Anh Kim and Dargan, Paul I and Daryani, Ahmad and Das, Siddharth K and Das Gupta, Rajat and das Neves, José and Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye and Dash, Aditya Prasad and Davis, Adrian C and Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil and Davletov, Kairat and Dayama, Anand and de Courten, Barbora and De Leo, Diego and De Neve, Jan-Walter and De Steur, Hans and Degefa, Meaza Girma and Degenhardt, Louisa and Degfie, Tizta Tilahun and Deiparine, Selina and Dellavalle, Robert P and Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam and Demtsu, Balem and Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar and Deribe, Kebede and Dervenis, Nikolaos and Dessie, Getenet Ayalew and Dey, Subhojit and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dhimal, Meghnath and Dicker, Daniel and Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese and Ding, Eric L and Djalalinia, Shirin and Do, Huyen Phuc and Dokova, Klara and Doku, David Teye and Douwes-Schultz, Dirk and Driscoll, Tim Robert and Duan, Leilei and Dubey, Manisha and Dubljanin, Eleonora and Duken, Eyasu Ejeta and Duncan, Bruce B and Duraes, Andre R and Ebrahimpour, Soheil and Edvardsson, David and El Bcheraoui, Charbel and Eldrenkamp, Erika and El-Khatib, Ziad and Elyazar, Iqbal RF and Enayati, Ahmadali and Endries, Aman Yesuf and Eshrati, Babak and Eskandarieh, Sharareh and Esteghamati, Alireza and Esteghamati, Sadaf and Estep, Kara and Fakhar, Mahdi and Fakhim, Hamed and Fanzo, Jessica and Faramarzi, Mahbobeh and Fareed, Mohammad and Farhadi, Farzaneh and Farid, Talha A and Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá and Farioli, Andrea and Faro, Andre and Farvid, Maryam S and Farzadfar, Farshad and Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein and Farzam, Hossein and Fazaeli, Ali Akbar and Fazeli, Mir Sohail and Feigin, Valery L and Feigl, Andrea B and Fekadu, Wubalem and Feldman, Rachel and Fentahun, Netsanet and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fernandes, Eduarda and Fernandes, Joao C and Feyissa, Garumma Tolu and Fijabi, Daniel Obadare and Filip, Irina and Finegold, Samuel and Finger, Jonas David and Fischer, Florian and Fitzmaurice, Christina and Flor, Luisa Sorio and Foigt, Nataliya A and Foreman, Kyle J and Frank, Tahvi D and Franklin, Richard Charles and Fukumoto, Takeshi and Fukutaki, Kai and Fuller, John E and Fürst, Thomas and Furtado, João M and Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gallus, Silvano and Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho and Gansevoort, Ron T and Garcia, Ana Cristina and Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L and Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A and Gardner, William M and Gebre, Abadi Kahsu and Gebre, Teshome and Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe and Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde and Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay and Gebremichael, Bereket and Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo and Gelano, Tilayie Feto and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea and Getachew, Sefonias and Gething, Peter W and Gezae, Kebede Embaye and Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul and Ghadimi, Reza and Ghadiri, Keyghobad and Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam and Ghiasvand, Hesam and Ghimire, Mamata and Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal and Giampaoli, Simona and Gill, Paramjit Singh and Gill, Tiffany K and Giussani, Giorgia and Gnedovskaya, Elena V and Goldberg, Ellen M and Goli, Srinivas and Gona, Philimon N and Goodridge, Amador and Gopalani, Sameer Vali and Gorman, Taren M and Goto, Atsushi and Goulart, Alessandra C and Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia and Grada, Ayman and Griswold, Max G and Grosso, Giuseppe and Gugnani, Harish Chander C and Guillemin, Francis and Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena and Guo, Yuming and Gupta, Prakash C and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Gupta, Tanush and Ha, Giang Hai and Haagsma, Juanita A and Hachinski, Vladimir and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan and Hagos, Tekleberhan B and Haile, Michael Tamene and Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa and Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa and Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin and Haj-Mirzaian, Arya and Hamadeh, Randah R and Hamidi, Samer and Hankey, Graeme J and Harb, Hilda L and Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai and Haririan, Hamidreza and Haro, Josep Maria and Hasan, Mehedi and Hassankhani, Hadi and Hassen, Hamid Yimam and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hawley, Caitlin N and Hay, Simon I and He, Yihua and Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar and Hegazy, Mohamed I and Heibati, Behzad and Heidari, Behnam and Heidari, Mohsen and Hendrie, Delia and Henok, Andualem and Heredia-Pi, Ileana and Herteliu, Claudiu and Heydarpour, Behzad and Heydarpour, Fatemeh and Heydarpour, Sousan and Hibstu, Desalegn T and Híjar, Martha and Hoek, Hans W and Hoffman, Daniel J and Hole, Michael K and Homaie Rad, Enayatollah and Hoogar, Praveen and Horita, Nobuyuki and Hosgood, H Dean and Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa and Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi and Hostiuc, Mihaela and Hostiuc, Sorin and Hotez, Peter J and Hoy, Damian G and Hsairi, Mohamed and Hsiao, Thomas and Hu, Guoqing and Huang, John J and Hughes, Caitlyn and Huynh, Chantal K and Igumbor, Ehimario U and Ikeda, Chad Thomas and Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen and Iqbal, Usman and Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi and Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter and Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful and Islami, Farhad and Ivers, Rebecca Q and Izadi, Neda and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jahangiry, Leila and Jahanmehr, Nader and Jain, Sudhir Kumar and Jakovljevic, Mihajlo and Jalu, Moti Tolera and Jamal, Amr A and James, Spencer L and Jassal, Simerjot K and Javanbakht, Mehdi and Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra and Jeemon, Panniyammakal and Jha, Ravi Prakash and Jha, Vivekanand and Ji, John S and Johnson, Catherine O and Johnson, Sarah C and Jonas, Jost B and Jonnagaddala, Jitendra and Jorjoran Shushtari, Zahra and Joshi, Ankur and Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy and Jungari, Suresh Banayya and Jürisson, Mikk and K, Madhanraj and Kabir, Zubair and Kadel, Rajendra and Kahsay, Amaha and Kahssay, Molla and Kalani, Rizwan and Kapil, Umesh and Karami, Manoochehr and Karami Matin, Behzad and Karanikolos, Marina and Karimi, Narges and Karimi, Seyed M and Karimi-Sari, Hamidreza and Kasaeian, Amir and Kassa, Dessalegn H and Kassa, Getachew Mullu and Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale and Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes and Kassebaum, Nicholas J and Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazemi, Zhila and Karyani, Ali Kazemi and Kazi, Dhruv Satish and KC, Prakash and Kebede, Seifu and Keiyoro, Peter Njenga and Kemmer, Laura and Kemp, Grant Rodgers and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Keren, Andre and Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khafaei, Behzad and Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif and Khajavi, Alireza and Khalid, Nauman and Khalil, Ibrahim A and Khan, Ejaz Ahmad and Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb and Khan, Muhammad Ali and Khang, Young-Ho and Khanna, Tripti and Khater, Mona M and Khatony, Alireza and Khazaeipour, Zahra and Khazaie, Habibolah and Khoja, Abdullah T and Khosravi, Ardeshir and Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein and Khubchandani, Jagdish and Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A and Kiarie, Helen W and Kibret, Getiye D and Kiirithio, Daniel N and Kim, Daniel and Kim, Jun Y and Kim, Young-Eun and Kim, Yun Jin and Kimokoti, Ruth W and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinra, Sanjay and Kisa, Adnan and Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna and Kissoon, Niranjan and Kivimäki, Mika and Kocarnik, Jonathan M and Kochhar, Sonali and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kolola, Tufa and Kopec, Jacek A and Kosek, Margaret N and Kosen, Soewarta and Koul, Parvaiz A and Koyanagi, Ai and Kravchenko, Michael A and Krishan, Kewal and Krohn, Kristopher J and Kuate Defo, Barthelemy and Kucuk Bicer, Burcu and Kudom, Andreas A and Kulikoff, Xie Rachel and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Manasi and Kumar, Pushpendra and Kutz, Michael J and Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe and Lachat, Carl and Lad, Deepesh P and Lad, Sheetal D and Lafranconi, Alessandra and Lagat, Abraham K and Lal, Dharmesh Kumar and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lam, Hilton and Lami, Faris Hasan and Lamichhane, Prabhat and Lan, Qing and Lang, Justin J and Lansingh, Van C and Lansky, Sonia and Larson, Heidi J and Larsson, Anders O and Laryea, Dennis Odai and Lassi, Zohra S and Latifi, Arman and Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming and Laxmaiah, Avula and Lazarus, Jeffrey V and Leasher, Janet L and Lebedev, Georgy and Ledesma, Jorge R and Lee, James B and Lee, Paul H and Leever, Andrew T and Leigh, James and Leinsalu, Mall and Leshargie, Cheru Tesema and Leung, Janni and Lewycka, Sonia and Li, Shanshan and Li, Xiaohong and Li, Yichong and Liang, Juan and Liang, Xiaofeng and Liben, Misgan Legesse and Lim, Lee-Ling and Limenih, Miteku Andualem and Linn, Shai and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lodha, Rakesh and Logroscino, Giancarlo and Lopez, Alan D and Lorkowski, Stefan and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lucchesi, Lydia R and Lyons, Ronan A and Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King and Mackay, Mark T and Maddison, Emilie R and Madotto, Fabiana and Maghavani, Dhaval P and Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos and Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur and Majdan, Marek and Majdzadeh, Reza and Majeed, Azeem and Malekzadeh, Reza and Malta, Deborah Carvalho and Mamun, Abdullah A and Manda, Ana-Laura and Mandarano-Filho, Luiz Garcia and Mangalam, Srikanth and Manguerra, Helena and Mansournia, Mohammad Ali and Mapoma, Chabila Christopher and Maravilla, Joemer C and Marcenes, Wagner and Marks, Ashley and Martin, Randall V and Martins, Sheila C O and Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio and Martopullo, Ira and Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa and Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard and Mathur, Manu Raj and Maulik, Pallab K and Mazidi, Mohsen and McAlinden, Colm and McGrath, John J and McKee, Martin and McMahon, Brian J and Mehata, Suresh and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mehrotra, Ravi and Mehta, Kala M and Mehta, Varshil and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Mekonen, Tesfa and Mekonnen, Tefera C Chane and Meles, Hagazi Gebre and Melese, Addisu and Melku, Mulugeta and Memiah, Peter T N and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese and Mengistu, Getnet and Mensah, George A and Mensink, Gert B M and Mereta, Seid Tiku and Meretoja, Atte and Meretoja, Tuomo J and Mestrovic, Tomislav and Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane and Miazgowski, Bartosz and Miazgowski, Tomasz and Millear, Anoushka I and Miller, Ted R and Miller-Petrie, Molly Katherine and Milne, George J and Mini, G K and Minnig, Shawn P and Mirabi, Parvaneh and Mirarefin, Mojde and Mirrakhimov, Erkin M and Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen and Mitchell, Philip B and Moazen, Babak and Moghadamnia, Ali Akbar and Mohajer, Bahram and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mohammadi, Moslem and Mohammadifard, Noushin and Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa and Mohammed, Mohammed A and Mohammed, Shafiu and Mohan, Murali B V and Mohan, Viswanathan and Mohebi, Farnam and Moitra, Modhurima and Mokdad, Ali H and Molokhia, Mariam and Monasta, Lorenzo and Montañez, Julio Cesar and Moosazadeh, Mahmood and Moradi, Ghobad and Moradi, Mahmoudreza and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Moradinazar, Mehdi and Moraga, Paula and Morawska, Lidia and Morgado-da-Costa, Joana and Morisaki, Naho and Morrison, Shane Douglas and Mosapour, Abbas and Moschos, Marilita M and Mountjoy-Venning, W Cliff and Mouodi, Simin and Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam and Muche, Achenef Asmamaw and Muchie, Kindie Fentahun and Mueller, Ulrich Otto and Muhammed, Oumer Sada S and Mukhopadhyay, Satinath and Mullany, Erin C and Muller, Kate and Mumford, John Everett and Murhekar, Manoj and Murthy, G V S and Murthy, Srinivas and Musa, Jonah and Musa, Kamarul Imran and Mustafa, Ghulam and Muthupandian, Saravanan and Nabhan, Ashraf F and Nachega, Jean B and Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman and Nagel, Gabriele and Naghavi, Mohsen and Naheed, Aliya and Nahvijou, Azin and Naidoo, Kovin and Naik, Gurudatta and Naik, Nitish and Najafi, Farid and Naldi, Luigi and Nam, Hae Sung and Nangia, Vinay and Nansseu, Jobert Richie and Nascimento, Bruno Ramos and Nawaz, Haseeb and Neamati, Nahid and Negoi, Ionut and Negoi, Ruxandra Irina and Neupane, Subas and Newton, Charles Richard James and Ngalesoni, Frida N and Ngunjiri, Josephine W and Nguyen, Anh and Nguyen, Grant and Nguyen, Ha and Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi and Nguyen, Huong Thanh and Nguyen, Minh and Nichols, Emma and Nigatu, Solomon Gedlu and Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini and Nirayo, Yirga Legesse and Nisar, Muhammad Imran and Nixon, Molly R and Nolutshungu, Nomonde and Nomura, Marika and Norheim, Ole F and Noroozi, Mehdi and Norrving, Bo and Noubiap, Jean Jacques and Nouri, Hamid Reza and Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe and Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza and Nyasulu, Peter S and Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf and Ofori-Asenso, Richard and Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel and Ogbo, Felix Akpojene and Oh, In-Hwan and Okoro, Anselm and Oladimeji, Kelechi E and Oladimeji, Olanrewaju and Olagunju, Andrew T and Olagunju, Tinuke O and Olivares, Pedro R and Olsen, Helen Elizabeth and Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola and Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun and Ong, Kanyin L and Ong, Sok King and Oommen, Anu Mary and Opio, John Nelson and Oren, Eyal and Oros, Andrei and Ortega-Altamirano, Doris D V and Ortiz, Alberto and Ortiz, Justin R and Ortiz-Panozo, Eduardo and Ota, Erika and Otstavnov, Stanislav S and Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo and P A, Mahesh and Pakhale, Smita and Pakhare, Abhijit P and Pan, Wen-Harn and Pana, Adrian and Panda, Basant Kumar and Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra and Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai and Papantoniou, Nikolaos and Park, Eun-Kee and Parry, Charles D H and Parsian, Hadi and Patel, Shanti and Pati, Sanghamitra and Patle, Ajay and Patton, George C and Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao and Paudel, Deepak and Paulson, Katherine R and Pearce, Neil and Peprah, Emmanuel K and Pereira, David M and Perico, Norberto and Pervaiz, Aslam and Pesudovs, Konrad and Petri, William A and Petzold, Max and Phillips, Michael R and Pigott, David M and Pillay, Julian David and Pirsaheb, Meghdad and Pletcher, Martin and Pond, Constance Dimity and Postma, Maarten J and Pourshams, Akram and Poustchi, Hossein and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Prakash, Swayam and Prasad, Narayan and Purcell, Caroline A and Pyakurel, Manita and Qorbani, Mostafa and Quansah, Reginald and Radfar, Amir and Rafay, Anwar and Rafiei, Alireza and Rahim, Fakher and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Rahman, Mahfuzar and Rahman, Md Shafiur and Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur and Rahman, Muhammad Aziz and Rahman, Sajjad ur and Rai, Rajesh Kumar and Rajati, Fatemeh and Rajsic, Sasa and Ram, Usha and Rana, Saleem M and Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal and Ranjan, Prabhat and Rasella, Davide and Rawaf, David Laith and Rawaf, Salman and Razo-García, Christian and Reddy, K Srinath and Reiner, Robert C and Reis, Cesar and Reitsma, Marissa B and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Renzaho, Andre M N and Resnikoff, Serge and Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam and Rezaei, Satar and Rezaeian, Shahab and Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh and Riahi, Seyed Mohammad and Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P and Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus and Roba, Kedir Teji and Roberts, Nicholas L S and Roever, Leonardo and Ronfani, Luca and Roshandel, Gholamreza and Rostami, Ali and Roth, Gregory A and Roy, Ambuj and Rubagotti, Enrico and Ruhago, George Mugambage and Sabde, Yogesh Damodar and Sachdev, Perminder S and Saddik, Basema and Sadeghi, Ehsan and Safari, Hosein and Safari, Yahya and Safari-Faramani, Roya and Safdarian, Mahdi and Safi, Sare and Safiri, Saeid and Sagar, Rajesh and Sahebkar, Amirhossein and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Sajadi, Haniye Sadat and Salam, Nasir and Salama, Joseph S and Salamati, Payman and Saldanha, Raphael de Freitas and Saleem, Zikria and Salimi, Yahya and Salimzadeh, Hamideh and Salomon, Joshua A and Salvi, Sundeep Santosh and Salz, Inbal and Sambala, Evanson Zondani and Samy, Abdallah M and Sanabria, Juan and Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores and Santos, Itamar S and Santric Milicevic, Milena M and Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi and Sardana, Mayank and Sarker, Abdur Razzaque and Sarrafzadegan, Nizal and Sartorius, Benn and Sarvi, Shahabeddin and Sathian, Brijesh and Satpathy, Maheswar and Savic, Miloje and Sawant, Arundhati R and Sawhney, Monika and Saxena, Sonia and Saylan, Mete and Sayyah, Mehdi and Schaeffner, Elke and Schmidt, Maria Inês and Schneider, Ione J C and Schöttker, Ben and Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth and Schwebel, David C and Schwendicke, Falk and Seedat, Soraya and Sekerija, Mario and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Serván-Mori, Edson and Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba and Shabaninejad, Hosein and Shackelford, Katya Anne and Shafieesabet, Azadeh and Shaheen, Amira A and Shaikh, Masood Ali and Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran and Shamsi, Mohammad Bagher and Shamsizadeh, Morteza and Sharafi, Heidar and Sharafi, Kiomars and Sharif, Mehdi and Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi and Sharma, Jayendra and Sharma, Rajesh and Sharma, Sharad Kumar and She, Jun and Sheikh, Aziz and Shey, Muki Shehu and Shi, Peilin and Shibuya, Kenji and Shields, Chloe and Shifa, Girma Temam and Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay and Shigematsu, Mika and Shiri, Rahman and Shirkoohi, Reza and Shirude, Shreya and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Shokraneh, Farhad and Shoman, Haitham and Shrime, Mark G and Shukla, Sharvari Rahul and Si, Si and Siabani, Soraya and Sibai, Abla Mehio and Siddiqi, Tariq J and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Silpakit, Naris and Silva, Diego Augusto Santos and Silva, João Pedro and Silva, Natacha Torres da and Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves and Singh, Jasvinder A and Singh, Narinder Pal and Singh, Om Prakash and Singh, Prashant Kumar and Singh, Virendra and Sinha, Dhirendra Narain and Skiadaresi, Eirini and Sliwa, Karen and Smith, Amanda E and Smith, Mari and Soares Filho, Adauto Martins and Sobaih, Badr Hasan and Sobhani, Soheila and Soljak, Michael and Soofi, Moslem and Soosaraei, Masoud and Sorensen, Reed J D and Soriano, Joan B and Soshnikov, Sergey and Soyiri, Ireneous N and Spinelli, Angela and Sposato, Luciano A and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Srinivasan, Raghavendra Guru and Srinivasan, Vinay and Stanaway, Jeffrey D and Starodubov, Vladimir I and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki and Steckling, Nadine and Stein, Dan J and Stewart, Leo G and Stockfelt, Leo and Stokes, Mark A and Straif, Kurt and Sudaryanto, Agus and Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale and Sunguya, Bruno F and Sur, Patrick John and Sutradhar, Ipsita and Sykes, Bryan L and Sylaja, P N and Sylte, Dillon O and Szoeke, Cassandra E I and Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael and Tabuchi, Takahiro and Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar and Tamirat, Koku Sisay and Tandon, Nikhil and Tanser, Frank C and Tassew, Aberash Abay and Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel and Tavakkoli, Mohammad and Taveira, Nuno and Tawye, Nega Yimer and Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash and Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw and Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin and Temesgen, Habtamu and Temsah, Mohamad-Hani and Temsah, Omar and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Teshale, Manaye Yihune and Teshome, Destaw Fetene and Tessema, Belay and Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu and Thakur, Jarnail Singh and Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman and Theis, Andrew and Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish and Thomas, Laura Anne and Thomas, Nihal and Thomson, Alan J and Thrift, Amanda G and Tilahun, Binyam and To, Quyen G and Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan and Tonelli, Marcello and Topor-Madry, Roman and Torre, Anna E and Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel and Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto and Towbin, Jeffrey A and Tran, Bach Xuan and Tran, Khanh Bao and Tran, Tung Thanh and Tripathy, Srikanth Prasad and Troeger, Christopher E and Truelsen, Thomas Clement and Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel and Tudor Car, Lorainne and Tuzcu, E Murat and Tymeson, Hayley D and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Ullah, Irfan and Updike, Rachel L and Usman, Muhammad Shariq and Uthman, Olalekan A and Vaduganathan, Muthiah and Vaezi, Afsane and Vaidya, Gaurang and Valdez, Pascual R and van Donkelaar, Aaron and Varavikova, Elena and Vasankari, Tommi Juhani and Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy and Vidavalur, Ramesh and Villafaina, Santos and Violante, Francesco S and Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch and Vlassov, Vasily and Vollmer, Sebastian and Vollset, Stein Emil and Vos, Theo and Vosoughi, Kia and Vujcic, Isidora S and Wagner, Gregory R and Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw and Waheed, Yasir and Walson, Judd L and Wang, Yanping and Wang, Yuan-Pang and Wassie, Molla Mesele and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Weiss, Jordan and Weldegebreal, Fitsum and Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey and Werdecker, Andrea and Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew and West, T Eoin and Westerman, Ronny and Whisnant, Joanna L and Whiteford, Harvey A and Widecka, Justyna and Widecka, Katarzyna and Wijeratne, Tissa and Wilner, Lauren B and Winkler, Andrea Sylvia and Wiyeh, Alison B and Wiysonge, Charles Shey and Wolde, Haileab Fekadu and Wolfe, Charles D A and Wu, Shouling and Xavier, Denis and Xu, Gelin and Xu, Rixing and Yadollahpour, Ali and Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein and Yakob, Bereket and Yamada, Tomohide and Yan, Lijing L and Yano, Yuichiro and Yaseri, Mehdi and Yasin, Yasin Jemal and Ye, Pengpeng and Yearwood, Jamal A and Yeshaneh, Alex and Yimer, Ebrahim M and Yip, Paul and Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn and Yisma, Engida and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yonga, Gerald and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Yotebieng, Marcel and Younis, Mustafa Z and Yousefifard, Mahmoud and Yu, Chuanhua and Zaman, Sojib Bin and Zamani, Mohammad and Zare, Zohreh and Zavala-Arciniega, Luis and Zegeye, Desalegn Tegabu and Zegeye, Elias Asfaw and Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw and Zendehdel, Kazem and Zerfu, Taddese Alemu and Zhang, Anthony Lin and Zhang, Xueying and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zimsen, Stephanie R M and Zodpey, Sanjay and Zoeckler, Leo and Zucker, Inbar and Zuhlke, Liesel Joanna J and Lim, Stephen S and Murray, Christopher J L},
  issn         = {0140-6736},
  journal      = {LANCET},
  keywords     = {CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE,SMOKING PREVALENCE,GENDER-DIFFERENCES,ALCOHOL-USE,SUICIDE,PERSPECTIVE,CONSUMPTION,PREVENTION,TRANSITION,CESSATION},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {10159},
  pages        = {2091--2138},
  title        = {Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5},
  volume       = {392},
  year         = {2018},
}

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