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Developing fragility curves and estimating failure probabilities for protected steel structural elements subject to fully developed fires

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Abstract
Reliability methods are at the core of ambient Eurocode design. Realising exceptional / complex buildings necessitates that an adequate level of safety be demonstrated. Rationally demonstrating adequate safety can only be achieved through the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This paper presents a novel application of PRA in a structural fire engineering context. It first proposes a generalised limit state for protected steel members undergoing failure modes dictated by yielding. Subsequently, fragility curves describing failure likelihood in function of protection specification and mean fire load are presented for a 1,000 m2 compartment, subject to fully developed fires (parametric and travelling fires). The presented fragility curves have subsequently proven to be of value for further life-time-cost-optimisation applications, with the intent of arriving at explicit safety targets.
Keywords
fire, steel, failure probability, fragility

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Chicago
Hopkin, Danny, Ruben Van Coile, and Ian Fu. 2018. “Developing Fragility Curves and Estimating Failure Probabilities for Protected Steel Structural Elements Subject to Fully Developed Fires.” In Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Structures in Fire. Belfast.
APA
Hopkin, D., Van Coile, R., & Fu, I. (2018). Developing fragility curves and estimating failure probabilities for protected steel structural elements subject to fully developed fires. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Structures in Fire. Presented at the 10th International Conference on Structures in Fire, Belfast.
Vancouver
1.
Hopkin D, Van Coile R, Fu I. Developing fragility curves and estimating failure probabilities for protected steel structural elements subject to fully developed fires. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Structures in Fire. Belfast; 2018.
MLA
Hopkin, Danny, Ruben Van Coile, and Ian Fu. “Developing Fragility Curves and Estimating Failure Probabilities for Protected Steel Structural Elements Subject to Fully Developed Fires.” Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Structures in Fire. Belfast, 2018. Print.
@inproceedings{8566495,
  abstract     = {Reliability methods are at the core of ambient Eurocode design. Realising exceptional / complex buildings necessitates that an adequate level of safety be demonstrated. Rationally demonstrating adequate safety can only be achieved through the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This paper presents a novel application of PRA in a structural fire engineering context. It first proposes a generalised limit state for protected steel members undergoing failure modes dictated by yielding. Subsequently, fragility curves describing failure likelihood in function of protection specification and mean fire load are presented for a 1,000 m2 compartment, subject to fully developed fires (parametric and travelling fires). The presented fragility curves have subsequently proven to be of value for further life-time-cost-optimisation applications, with the intent of arriving at explicit safety targets.},
  author       = {Hopkin, Danny and Van Coile, Ruben and Fu, Ian},
  booktitle    = {Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Structures in Fire},
  keyword      = {fire,steel,failure probability,fragility},
  language     = {eng},
  location     = {Belfast},
  title        = {Developing fragility curves and estimating failure probabilities for protected steel structural elements subject to fully developed fires},
  year         = {2018},
}