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No better moment to score a goal than just before half time? A soccer myth statistically tested

Stijn Baert UGent and Simon Amez UGent (2018) PLOS ONE. 13(3).
abstract
We test the soccer myth suggesting that a particularly good moment to score a goal is just before half time. To this end, rich data on 1,179 games played in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are analysed. In contrast to the myth, we find that, conditional on the goal difference and other game characteristics at half time, the final goal difference at the advantage of the home team is 0.520 goals lower in case of a goal just before half time by this team. We show that this finding relates to this team’s lower probability of scoring a goal during the second half.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
year
type
journalArticle (original)
publication status
published
subject
keyword
soccer, sports, goal scoring, fixed effects regression
journal title
PLOS ONE
volume
13
issue
3
article number
e0194255
publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Web of Science type
Article
Web of Science id
000426902900078
ISSN
1932-6203
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0194255
language
English
UGent publication?
yes
classification
A1
id
8556348
handle
http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8556348
alternative location
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194255
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194255
date created
2018-03-18 12:12:16
date last changed
2018-07-10 09:21:29
@article{8556348,
  abstract     = {We test the soccer myth suggesting that a particularly good moment to score a goal is just before half time. To this end, rich data on 1,179 games played in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are analysed. In contrast to the myth, we find that, conditional on the goal difference and other game characteristics at half time, the final goal difference at the advantage of the home team is 0.520 goals lower in case of a goal just before half time by this team. We show that this finding relates to this team{\textquoteright}s lower probability of scoring a goal during the second half.},
  articleno    = {e0194255},
  author       = {Baert, Stijn and Amez, Simon},
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  journal      = {PLOS ONE},
  keyword      = {soccer,sports,goal scoring,fixed effects regression},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  publisher    = {Public Library of Science (PLoS)},
  title        = {No better moment to score a goal than just before half time? A soccer myth statistically tested},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194255},
  volume       = {13},
  year         = {2018},
}

Chicago
Baert, Stijn, and Simon Amez. 2018. “No Better Moment to Score a Goal Than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested.” Plos One 13 (3).
APA
Baert, Stijn, & Amez, S. (2018). No better moment to score a goal than just before half time? A soccer myth statistically tested. PLOS ONE, 13(3).
Vancouver
1.
Baert S, Amez S. No better moment to score a goal than just before half time? A soccer myth statistically tested. PLOS ONE. Public Library of Science (PLoS); 2018;13(3).
MLA
Baert, Stijn, and Simon Amez. “No Better Moment to Score a Goal Than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested.” PLOS ONE 13.3 (2018): n. pag. Print.