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A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

Minh Tu Pham (UGent) , Hilde Vernieuwe (UGent) , Bernard De Baets (UGent) and Niko Verhoest (UGent)
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Abstract
A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.
Keywords
stochastic hydrology, copula, evapotranspiration, modelling, POINT PROCESS MODELS, BARTLETT-LEWIS TYPE, PRECIPITATION, DESIGN, STATISTICS, COPULAS, BELGIUM, TIME, DISTRIBUTIONS, SIMULATION

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Citation

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

Chicago
Pham, Minh Tu, Hilde Vernieuwe, Bernard De Baets, and Niko Verhoest. 2018. “A Coupled Stochastic Rainfall-evapotranspiration Model for Hydrological Impact Analysis.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 (2): 1263–1283.
APA
Pham, M. T., Vernieuwe, H., De Baets, B., & Verhoest, N. (2018). A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 22(2), 1263–1283.
Vancouver
1.
Pham MT, Vernieuwe H, De Baets B, Verhoest N. A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. 2018;22(2):1263–83.
MLA
Pham, Minh Tu et al. “A Coupled Stochastic Rainfall-evapotranspiration Model for Hydrological Impact Analysis.” HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 22.2 (2018): 1263–1283. Print.
@article{8552188,
  abstract     = {A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.},
  author       = {Pham, Minh Tu and Vernieuwe, Hilde and De Baets, Bernard and Verhoest, Niko},
  issn         = {1027-5606},
  journal      = {HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {1263--1283},
  title        = {A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018},
  volume       = {22},
  year         = {2018},
}

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