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Development of a full probabilistic QRA method for quantifying the life safety risk in complex building designs

Bart Van Weyenberge (UGent) , Xavier Deckers (UGent) , Robby Caspeele (UGent) and Bart Merci (UGent)
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Abstract
The present paper describes part of a framework for the development of a risk assessment methodology to quantify the life safety risk for people present in buildings in the context of the creation of a fire safety design. Complex building designs and regulations drive engineers towards quantitative risk analysis (QRA). One of the key aspects in quantitative risk analysis is finding the proper balance between simplification of the scope by using different models and taking important case specific features into account. In other words, a proper balance needs to be found between modelling cost versus accuracy. Increasing the accuracy by means of sophisticated models will increase the computational cost or might force to reduce the amount of representative scenarios to be analysed. In this paper, a method is discussed which quantifies the safety level with regard to building configuration detailing. Attention is given to the accuracy of the deterministic models, and at the same time approaches are analysed which reduce the computational cost. The output for the quantification of the life safety level of the building is determined by means of a procedure in which several steps are taken to obtain the risk outcome. The final risk value is calculated with regard to a failure probability in analogy with structural engineering.
Keywords
Quantitative risk assessment, risk analysis, response surface modelling, performance based design, Polynomial Chaos Expansion, limit state design

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Chicago
Van Weyenberge, Bart, Xavier Deckers, Robby Caspeele, and Bart Merci. 2016. “Development of a Full Probabilistic QRA Method for Quantifying the Life Safety Risk in Complex Building Designs.” In Performance Based Codes and Fire Safety Design Methods, 1–12.
APA
Van Weyenberge, B., Deckers, X., Caspeele, R., & Merci, B. (2016). Development of a full probabilistic QRA method for quantifying the life safety risk in complex building designs. Performance based codes and fire safety design methods (pp. 1–12). Presented at the 11th Conference on performance based codes and dire safety design methods.
Vancouver
1.
Van Weyenberge B, Deckers X, Caspeele R, Merci B. Development of a full probabilistic QRA method for quantifying the life safety risk in complex building designs. Performance based codes and fire safety design methods. 2016. p. 1–12.
MLA
Van Weyenberge, Bart, Xavier Deckers, Robby Caspeele, et al. “Development of a Full Probabilistic QRA Method for Quantifying the Life Safety Risk in Complex Building Designs.” Performance Based Codes and Fire Safety Design Methods. 2016. 1–12. Print.
@inproceedings{8531504,
  abstract     = {The present paper describes part of a framework for the development of a risk assessment methodology to quantify the life safety risk for people present in buildings in the context of the creation of a fire safety design. Complex building designs and regulations drive engineers towards quantitative risk analysis (QRA). One of the key aspects in quantitative risk analysis is finding the proper balance between simplification of the scope by using different models and taking important case specific features into account. In other words, a proper balance needs to be found between modelling cost versus accuracy. Increasing the accuracy by means of sophisticated models will increase the computational cost or might force to reduce the amount of representative scenarios to be analysed. In this paper, a method is discussed which quantifies the safety level with regard to building configuration detailing. Attention is given to the accuracy of the deterministic models, and at the same time approaches are analysed which reduce the computational cost. The output for the quantification of the life safety level of the building is determined by means of a procedure in which several steps are taken to obtain the risk outcome. The final risk value is calculated with regard to a failure probability in analogy with structural engineering.},
  author       = {Van Weyenberge, Bart and Deckers, Xavier and Caspeele, Robby and Merci, Bart},
  booktitle    = {Performance based codes and fire safety design methods},
  keyword      = {Quantitative risk assessment,risk analysis,response surface modelling,performance based design,Polynomial Chaos Expansion,limit state design},
  language     = {eng},
  location     = {Warsaw, Poland},
  pages        = {1--12},
  title        = {Development of a full probabilistic QRA method for quantifying the life safety risk in complex building designs},
  year         = {2016},
}