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Potentials and limitations of existing forecasting models for Alternaria on potatoes : challenges for model improvement

Sofie Landschoot UGent, Jolien De Reu, Kris Audenaert UGent, Pieter Vanhaverbeke, Geert Haesaert UGent, Bernard De Baets UGent and Willem Waegeman UGent (2017) POTATO RESEARCH. 60(1). p.61-76
abstract
Alternaria species, including A. solani and A. alternata, are a serious threat to potato cultivation and cause necrotic leaf spots, leading to premature defoliation and yield losses. To reduce the impact of the disease, a timely prediction of a disease outbreak is important. Worldwide, modelling attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of Alternaria in order to take adequate measures. In the present paper, we made an effort to classify the existing prediction models and subdivided them into three categories: plant-based, pathogen-based and plant-pathogen-based models. Plant-based models predict the susceptibility of the host crop and presume that Alternaria inoculum is abundantly present and not the restrictive factor, whereas pathogen-based models consider one or more stages of the Alternaria life cycle and suppose that the host crop is always susceptible. The plant-pathogen-based models try to take into account the complete plant-pathogen-environment relationship. In this paper, a critical review of the described models for Alternaria leaf spot is presented. To illustrate the discrepancy between the predicted and the observed dates of the first Alternaria symptoms or the discrepancy between the suggested first treatment and necessity to treat Alternaria, the existing models were subjected to the Belgian weather conditions. It turns out that these models are not applicable in Belgium or similar regions. This can be partially attributed to the fact that most of the currently available models are too simplistic (only plant- or pathogen-based) for regions where the disease pressure highly fluctuates between growing seasons and between locations within one season. Finally, perspectives for model improvement are given taking into account both plant, pathogen and environment.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
year
type
journalArticle (original)
publication status
published
subject
keyword
Alternaria, Models, Potato, Validation, AIRBORNE FUNGAL SPORES, EARLY BLIGHT, METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS, PREDICTING VARIABLES, RESISTANCE, CROP, CLADOSPORIUM, SOLANI, YIELD, STRATEGIES
journal title
POTATO RESEARCH
Potato Res.
volume
60
issue
1
pages
61 - 76
Web of Science type
Article
Web of Science id
000403019300004
ISSN
0014-3065
1871-4528
DOI
10.1007/s11540-017-9341-4
language
English
UGent publication?
yes
classification
A1
copyright statement
I have transferred the copyright for this publication to the publisher
id
8528017
handle
http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8528017
date created
2017-08-02 11:44:28
date last changed
2017-10-02 10:04:21
@article{8528017,
  abstract     = {Alternaria species, including A. solani and A. alternata, are a serious threat to potato cultivation and cause necrotic leaf spots, leading to premature defoliation and yield losses. To reduce the impact of the disease, a timely prediction of a disease outbreak is important. Worldwide, modelling attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of Alternaria in order to take adequate measures. In the present paper, we made an effort to classify the existing prediction models and subdivided them into three categories: plant-based, pathogen-based and plant-pathogen-based models. Plant-based models predict the susceptibility of the host crop and presume that Alternaria inoculum is abundantly present and not the restrictive factor, whereas pathogen-based models consider one or more stages of the Alternaria life cycle and suppose that the host crop is always susceptible. The plant-pathogen-based models try to take into account the complete plant-pathogen-environment relationship. In this paper, a critical review of the described models for Alternaria leaf spot is presented. To illustrate the discrepancy between the predicted and the observed dates of the first Alternaria symptoms or the discrepancy between the suggested first treatment and necessity to treat Alternaria, the existing models were subjected to the Belgian weather conditions. It turns out that these models are not applicable in Belgium or similar regions. This can be partially attributed to the fact that most of the currently available models are too simplistic (only plant- or pathogen-based) for regions where the disease pressure highly fluctuates between growing seasons and between locations within one season. Finally, perspectives for model improvement are given taking into account both plant, pathogen and environment.},
  author       = {Landschoot, Sofie and De Reu, Jolien and Audenaert, Kris and Vanhaverbeke, Pieter and Haesaert, Geert and De Baets, Bernard and Waegeman, Willem},
  issn         = {0014-3065},
  journal      = {POTATO RESEARCH},
  keyword      = {Alternaria,Models,Potato,Validation,AIRBORNE FUNGAL SPORES,EARLY BLIGHT,METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS,PREDICTING VARIABLES,RESISTANCE,CROP,CLADOSPORIUM,SOLANI,YIELD,STRATEGIES},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {61--76},
  title        = {Potentials and limitations of existing forecasting models for Alternaria on potatoes : challenges for model improvement},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11540-017-9341-4},
  volume       = {60},
  year         = {2017},
}

Chicago
Landschoot, Sofie, Jolien De Reu, Kris Audenaert, Pieter Vanhaverbeke, Geert Haesaert, Bernard De Baets, and Willem Waegeman. 2017. “Potentials and Limitations of Existing Forecasting Models for Alternaria on Potatoes : Challenges for Model Improvement.” Potato Research 60 (1): 61–76.
APA
Landschoot, S., De Reu, J., Audenaert, K., Vanhaverbeke, P., Haesaert, G., De Baets, B., & Waegeman, W. (2017). Potentials and limitations of existing forecasting models for Alternaria on potatoes : challenges for model improvement. POTATO RESEARCH, 60(1), 61–76.
Vancouver
1.
Landschoot S, De Reu J, Audenaert K, Vanhaverbeke P, Haesaert G, De Baets B, et al. Potentials and limitations of existing forecasting models for Alternaria on potatoes : challenges for model improvement. POTATO RESEARCH. 2017;60(1):61–76.
MLA
Landschoot, Sofie, Jolien De Reu, Kris Audenaert, et al. “Potentials and Limitations of Existing Forecasting Models for Alternaria on Potatoes : Challenges for Model Improvement.” POTATO RESEARCH 60.1 (2017): 61–76. Print.