Advanced search
1 file | 850.43 KB Add to list

From quality control to structural reliability : where Bayesian statistics meets risk analysis

Robby Caspeele (UGent)
(2014) HERON. 59(2-3). p.79-100
Author
Organization
Abstract
Quality inspection plays an important role in the production processes of structural material as well as in design and construction activities, inherently stimulating a higher performance with respect to the investigated activities or properties. In case of the conformity assessment of concrete compressive strength, the concrete strength distribution is filtered due to the rejection or acceptance of certain lots and this filter effect can be qualified using Bayesian updating techniques. A methodology based on numerical integration and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations is applied to update prior knowledge with respect to the hyperparameters of concrete strength distributions, considering the conformity criteria for concrete strength according to EN206-1. Further, as a consequence of this filter effect, conformity control has a positive influence on the reliability of concrete structures and this effect is quantified here by classical FORM calculations. Finally, also the variance reduction effect of conformity control with respect to structural reliability calculations is quantified, illustrating the reducing vulnerability to parameter uncertainties when performing structural reliability calculations.
Keywords
Structural reliability, quality control, conformity, Bayesian updating, concrete

Downloads

  • (...).pdf
    • full text
    • |
    • UGent only
    • |
    • PDF
    • |
    • 850.43 KB

Citation

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

MLA
Caspeele, Robby. “From Quality Control to Structural Reliability : Where Bayesian Statistics Meets Risk Analysis.” HERON, edited by LJ Sluys et al., vol. 59, no. 2–3, TU/Eindhoven, 2014, pp. 79–100.
APA
Caspeele, R. (2014). From quality control to structural reliability : where Bayesian statistics meets risk analysis. HERON, 59(2–3), 79–100.
Chicago author-date
Caspeele, Robby. 2014. “From Quality Control to Structural Reliability : Where Bayesian Statistics Meets Risk Analysis.” Edited by LJ Sluys, RB Polder, JC Walraven, PCJ Hoogenboom, Raphaël Steenbergen, and ASJ Suiker. HERON 59 (2–3): 79–100.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Caspeele, Robby. 2014. “From Quality Control to Structural Reliability : Where Bayesian Statistics Meets Risk Analysis.” Ed by. LJ Sluys, RB Polder, JC Walraven, PCJ Hoogenboom, Raphaël Steenbergen, and ASJ Suiker. HERON 59 (2–3): 79–100.
Vancouver
1.
Caspeele R. From quality control to structural reliability : where Bayesian statistics meets risk analysis. Sluys L, Polder R, Walraven J, Hoogenboom P, Steenbergen R, Suiker A, editors. HERON. 2014;59(2–3):79–100.
IEEE
[1]
R. Caspeele, “From quality control to structural reliability : where Bayesian statistics meets risk analysis,” HERON, vol. 59, no. 2–3, pp. 79–100, 2014.
@article{8527218,
  abstract     = {{Quality inspection plays an important role in the production processes of structural material as well as in design and construction activities, inherently stimulating a higher performance with respect to the investigated activities or properties. In case of the conformity assessment of concrete compressive strength, the concrete strength distribution is filtered due to the rejection or acceptance of certain lots and this filter effect can be qualified using Bayesian updating techniques. A methodology based on numerical integration and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations is applied to update prior knowledge with respect to the hyperparameters of concrete strength distributions, considering the conformity criteria for concrete strength according to EN206-1. Further, as a consequence of this filter effect, conformity control has a positive influence on the reliability of concrete structures and this effect is quantified here by classical FORM calculations. Finally, also the variance reduction effect of conformity control with respect to structural reliability calculations is quantified, illustrating the reducing vulnerability to parameter uncertainties when performing structural reliability calculations.}},
  author       = {{Caspeele, Robby}},
  editor       = {{Sluys, LJ and Polder, RB and Walraven, JC and Hoogenboom, PCJ and Steenbergen, Raphaël and Suiker, ASJ}},
  issn         = {{0046-7316}},
  journal      = {{HERON}},
  keywords     = {{Structural reliability,quality control,conformity,Bayesian updating,concrete}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2-3}},
  pages        = {{79--100}},
  publisher    = {{TU/Eindhoven}},
  title        = {{From quality control to structural reliability : where Bayesian statistics meets risk analysis}},
  url          = {{http://heronjournal.nl/59-23/2.html}},
  volume       = {{59}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}