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Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes : are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

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Abstract
This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3-4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensityduration-frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local subdaily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models.
Keywords
DOWNSCALING METHODS, CHANGE PROJECTIONS, EUROPE, PERFORMANCE, FORECASTS, COLORADO, BELGIUM, SCALES, BASIN, IRAN

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MLA
Tabari, Hossein, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, et al. “Local Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes : Are High-resolution Climate Models Needed for Realistic Simulations?” HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 20.9 (2016): 3843–3857. Print.
APA
Tabari, H., De Troch, R., Giot, O., Hamdi, R., Termonia, P., Saeed, S., Brisson, E., et al. (2016). Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes : are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations? HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 20(9), 3843–3857.
Chicago author-date
Tabari, Hossein, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Sajjad Saeed, Erwan Brisson, Nicole Van Lipzig, and Patrick Willems. 2016. “Local Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes : Are High-resolution Climate Models Needed for Realistic Simulations?” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 (9): 3843–3857.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Tabari, Hossein, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Sajjad Saeed, Erwan Brisson, Nicole Van Lipzig, and Patrick Willems. 2016. “Local Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes : Are High-resolution Climate Models Needed for Realistic Simulations?” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 (9): 3843–3857.
Vancouver
1.
Tabari H, De Troch R, Giot O, Hamdi R, Termonia P, Saeed S, et al. Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes : are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations? HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. 2016;20(9):3843–57.
IEEE
[1]
H. Tabari et al., “Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes : are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?,” HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, vol. 20, no. 9, pp. 3843–3857, 2016.
@article{8511185,
  abstract     = {This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3-4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensityduration-frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local subdaily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models.},
  author       = {Tabari, Hossein and De Troch, Rozemien and Giot, Olivier and Hamdi, Rafiq and Termonia, Piet and Saeed, Sajjad and Brisson, Erwan and Van Lipzig, Nicole and Willems, Patrick},
  issn         = {1607-7938},
  journal      = {HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES},
  keywords     = {DOWNSCALING METHODS,CHANGE PROJECTIONS,EUROPE,PERFORMANCE,FORECASTS,COLORADO,BELGIUM,SCALES,BASIN,IRAN},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {9},
  pages        = {3843--3857},
  title        = {Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes : are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016},
  volume       = {20},
  year         = {2016},
}

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