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When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates

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Abstract
People's affective forecasts are often inaccurate because they tend to overestimate how they will feel after an event. As life decisions are often based on affective forecasts, it is crucial to find ways to manage forecasting errors. We examined the impact of a fair treatment on forecasting errors in candidates in a Belgian reality TV talent show. We found that perceptions of fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers (a negative audition decision) but decreased it for winners (a positive audition decision). For winners, this effect was even more pronounced when candidates were highly invested in their self-view as a future pop idol whereas for losers, the effect was more pronounced when importance was low. The results in this study point to a potential paradox between maximizing happiness and decreasing forecasting errors. A fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers, but actually made them happier.
Keywords
SELF, CONSEQUENCES, JUSTICE, PROCEDURAL FAIRNESS, OUTCOME FAVORABILITY, INDIVIDUAL-DIFFERENCES, WORLD, JUDGMENTS, LOOKING, EVENTS, affective forecasting, treatment, importance, decision-making, reality TV show

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Chicago
Feys, Marjolein, and Frederik Anseel. 2015. “When Idols Look into the Future: Fair Treatment Modulates the Affective Forecasting Error in Talent Show Candidates.” British Journal of Social Psychology 54 (1): 19–36.
APA
Feys, Marjolein, & Anseel, F. (2015). When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates. BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, 54(1), 19–36.
Vancouver
1.
Feys M, Anseel F. When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates. BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY. 2015;54(1):19–36.
MLA
Feys, Marjolein, and Frederik Anseel. “When Idols Look into the Future: Fair Treatment Modulates the Affective Forecasting Error in Talent Show Candidates.” BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY 54.1 (2015): 19–36. Print.
@article{5972724,
  abstract     = {People's affective forecasts are often inaccurate because they tend to overestimate how they will feel after an event. As life decisions are often based on affective forecasts, it is crucial to find ways to manage forecasting errors. We examined the impact of a fair treatment on forecasting errors in candidates in a Belgian reality TV talent show. We found that perceptions of fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers (a negative audition decision) but decreased it for winners (a positive audition decision). For winners, this effect was even more pronounced when candidates were highly invested in their self-view as a future pop idol whereas for losers, the effect was more pronounced when importance was low. The results in this study point to a potential paradox between maximizing happiness and decreasing forecasting errors. A fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers, but actually made them happier.},
  author       = {Feys, Marjolein and Anseel, Frederik},
  issn         = {0144-6665},
  journal      = {BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {19--36},
  title        = {When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12063},
  volume       = {54},
  year         = {2015},
}

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