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A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium

(2013) PLOS ONE. 8(11).
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Abstract
When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases.
Keywords
EPIDEMIOLOGY, TRANSMISSION, RISK, VIRUS SEROTYPE-8, INFECTIOUS-DISEASES, NORTH-WESTERN EUROPE, TIME, FRAMEWORK, FARMS

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Chicago
Ensoy, Chellafe, Marc Aerts, Sarah Welby, Yves Van der Stede, and Christel Faes. 2013. “A Dynamic Spatio-temporal Model to Investigate the Effect of Cattle Movements on the Spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.” Plos One 8 (11).
APA
Ensoy, C., Aerts, M., Welby, S., Van der Stede, Y., & Faes, C. (2013). A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium. PLOS ONE, 8(11).
Vancouver
1.
Ensoy C, Aerts M, Welby S, Van der Stede Y, Faes C. A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium. PLOS ONE. 2013;8(11).
MLA
Ensoy, Chellafe, Marc Aerts, Sarah Welby, et al. “A Dynamic Spatio-temporal Model to Investigate the Effect of Cattle Movements on the Spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.” PLOS ONE 8.11 (2013): n. pag. Print.
@article{5863936,
  abstract     = {When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases.},
  articleno    = {e78591},
  author       = {Ensoy, Chellafe and Aerts, Marc and Welby, Sarah and Van der Stede, Yves and Faes, Christel},
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  journal      = {PLOS ONE},
  keyword      = {EPIDEMIOLOGY,TRANSMISSION,RISK,VIRUS SEROTYPE-8,INFECTIOUS-DISEASES,NORTH-WESTERN EUROPE,TIME,FRAMEWORK,FARMS},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {11},
  pages        = {12},
  title        = {A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0078591},
  volume       = {8},
  year         = {2013},
}

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