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Pastforward: development trajectories of temperate forest plant communities under global change: combining hindsight and forecasting

Leen Depauw (UGent) , Sybryn Maes and Kris Verheyen (UGent)
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Abstract
Climate warming, atmospheric deposition and land-use change are three important and well-known threats to biodiversity in temperate forests. Since most studies focused on the effects of single factors over short time periods, little is known about the combined effects of multiple global change drivers over longer time periods. To fill this gap, the ERC project PASTFORWARD will build an integrative understanding of the interactive effects of these three threats on forest herb layer communities, starting from the insight that community changes are driven primarily by past land use, but can be modulated by atmospheric deposition, climate warming and forest management. Three complementary data sources (a database with resurveyed vegetation plots, i.e. ForestREplot; field measurements and a multi-factor experiment) combined with an ecosystem model will be used. ForestREplot is a database of temperate forest herb layer resurvey plots, comprising ca. 36 study regions in Europe and North America. In a first stage, this database will be expanded – focussing on the extension of the land-use, atmospheric deposition and climate gradients covered – and exploited to test hypotheses about expected development trajectories of forest herb layer communities under different global-change scenarios. In a second stage, detailed field measurements quantifying present and past biotic and abiotic characteristics in a well-chosen subset of plots and regions will be performed in order to verify the validity of the inferred processes from the first stage and gain a better understanding of the drivers behind the observed changes. In a third stage, we will experimentally apply global change treatments to herb layer communities in a controlled environment to gain an understanding of the relative impact of the interacting factors. Finally, the overarching fourth stage will combine all data and outcomes to calibrate and validate a phenomenological-mechanistic model that allows predicting trajectories of forest herb community development under different global-change scenarios.
Keywords
land use change, resurvey, climate change, global warming, understorey, herb layer

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MLA
Depauw, Leen, et al. “Pastforward: Development Trajectories of Temperate Forest Plant Communities under Global Change: Combining Hindsight and Forecasting.” BES and SFÉ Joint Annual Meeting, Abstracts, 2014.
APA
Depauw, L., Maes, S., & Verheyen, K. (2014). Pastforward: development trajectories of temperate forest plant communities under global change: combining hindsight and forecasting. BES and SFÉ Joint Annual Meeting, Abstracts. Presented at the BES and SFÉ 2014 Joint annual meeting, Lille, France.
Chicago author-date
Depauw, Leen, Sybryn Maes, and Kris Verheyen. 2014. “Pastforward: Development Trajectories of Temperate Forest Plant Communities under Global Change: Combining Hindsight and Forecasting.” In BES and SFÉ Joint Annual Meeting, Abstracts.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Depauw, Leen, Sybryn Maes, and Kris Verheyen. 2014. “Pastforward: Development Trajectories of Temperate Forest Plant Communities under Global Change: Combining Hindsight and Forecasting.” In BES and SFÉ Joint Annual Meeting, Abstracts.
Vancouver
1.
Depauw L, Maes S, Verheyen K. Pastforward: development trajectories of temperate forest plant communities under global change: combining hindsight and forecasting. In: BES and SFÉ Joint annual meeting, Abstracts. 2014.
IEEE
[1]
L. Depauw, S. Maes, and K. Verheyen, “Pastforward: development trajectories of temperate forest plant communities under global change: combining hindsight and forecasting,” in BES and SFÉ Joint annual meeting, Abstracts, Lille, France, 2014.
@inproceedings{5820830,
  abstract     = {{Climate warming, atmospheric deposition and land-use change are three important and well-known threats to biodiversity in temperate forests. Since most studies focused on the effects of single factors over short time periods, little is known about the combined effects of multiple global change drivers over longer time periods. To fill this gap, the ERC project PASTFORWARD will build an integrative understanding of the interactive effects of these three threats on forest herb layer communities, starting from the insight that community changes are driven primarily by past land use, but can be modulated by atmospheric deposition, climate warming and forest management. Three complementary data sources (a database with resurveyed vegetation plots, i.e. ForestREplot; field measurements and a multi-factor experiment) combined with an ecosystem model will be used. ForestREplot is a database of temperate forest herb layer resurvey plots, comprising ca. 36 study regions in Europe and North America. In a first stage, this database will be expanded – focussing on the extension of the land-use, atmospheric deposition and climate gradients covered – and exploited to test hypotheses about expected development trajectories of forest herb layer communities under different global-change scenarios. In a second stage, detailed field measurements quantifying present and past biotic and abiotic characteristics in a well-chosen subset of plots and regions will be performed in order to verify the validity of the inferred processes from the first stage and gain a better understanding of the drivers behind the observed changes. In a third stage, we will experimentally apply global change treatments to herb layer communities in a controlled environment to gain an understanding of the relative impact of the interacting factors. Finally, the overarching fourth stage will combine all data and outcomes to calibrate and validate a phenomenological-mechanistic model that allows predicting trajectories of forest herb community development under different global-change scenarios.}},
  articleno    = {{abstract C1.15}},
  author       = {{Depauw, Leen and Maes, Sybryn and Verheyen, Kris}},
  booktitle    = {{BES and SFÉ Joint annual meeting, Abstracts}},
  keywords     = {{land use change,resurvey,climate change,global warming,understorey,herb layer}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  location     = {{Lille, France}},
  title        = {{Pastforward: development trajectories of temperate forest plant communities under global change: combining hindsight and forecasting}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}