Advanced search
1 file | 111.25 KB

Development and validation of a model for prediction of mortality in patients with acute burn injury

Stijn Blot (UGent) , Nele Brusselaers (UGent) , Stan Monstrey (UGent) , Koenraad Vandewoude (UGent) , Jan De Waele (UGent) , Kirsten Colpaert (UGent) , Johan Decruyenaere (UGent) , M Malbrain, C Lafaire, J-P Fauville, et al.
(2009) BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY. 96(1). p.111-117
Author
Organization
Abstract
Background: The objective was to develop a user-friendly model to predict the probability of death from acute burns soon after injury, based on burned surface area, age and presence of inhalation injury. Methods: This population-based cohort study included all burned patients admitted to one of the six Belgian burn centres. Data from 1999 to 2003 (5246 patients) were used to develop a mortality prediction model, and data from 2004 (981 patients) were used for validation. Results: Mortality in the derivation cohort was 4.6 per cent. A mortality score (0-10 points) was devised: 0-4 points according to the percentage of burned surface area less than 20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79 or at least 80 per cent), 0-3 points according to age (under 50, 50-64, 65-79 or at least 80 years) and 3 points for the presence of an inhalation injury. Mortality in the validation cohort was 4.3 per cent. The model predicted 40 deaths, and 42 deaths were observed (P = 0.950). Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis of the model for prediction of mortality demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.94 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97). Conclusion: An accurate model was developed to predict the probability of death from acute burn injury based on simple and objective clinical criteria.
Keywords
PROBABILITY, INHALATION INJURY, TRAUMA, OUTCOMES, AGE, SURVIVAL, CARE, DEATH

Downloads

  • (...).pdf
    • full text
    • |
    • UGent only
    • |
    • PDF
    • |
    • 111.25 KB

Citation

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

Chicago
Blot, Stijn, Nele Brusselaers, Stan Monstrey, Koenraad Vandewoude, Jan De Waele, Kirsten Colpaert, Johan Decruyenaere, et al. 2009. “Development and Validation of a Model for Prediction of Mortality in Patients with Acute Burn Injury.” British Journal of Surgery 96 (1): 111–117.
APA
Blot, S., Brusselaers, N., Monstrey, S., Vandewoude, K., De Waele, J., Colpaert, K., Decruyenaere, J., et al. (2009). Development and validation of a model for prediction of mortality in patients with acute burn injury. BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY, 96(1), 111–117.
Vancouver
1.
Blot S, Brusselaers N, Monstrey S, Vandewoude K, De Waele J, Colpaert K, et al. Development and validation of a model for prediction of mortality in patients with acute burn injury. BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY. 2009;96(1):111–7.
MLA
Blot, Stijn, Nele Brusselaers, Stan Monstrey, et al. “Development and Validation of a Model for Prediction of Mortality in Patients with Acute Burn Injury.” BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY 96.1 (2009): 111–117. Print.
@article{547644,
  abstract     = {Background: The objective was to develop a user-friendly model to predict the probability of death from acute burns soon after injury, based on burned surface area, age and presence of inhalation injury.
Methods: This population-based cohort study included all burned patients admitted to one of the six Belgian burn centres. Data from 1999 to 2003 (5246 patients) were used to develop a mortality prediction model, and data from 2004 (981 patients) were used for validation.
Results: Mortality in the derivation cohort was 4.6 per cent. A mortality score (0-10 points) was devised: 0-4 points according to the percentage of burned surface area less than 20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79 or at least 80 per cent), 0-3 points according to age (under 50, 50-64, 65-79 or at least 80 years) and 3 points for the presence of an inhalation injury. Mortality in the validation cohort was 4.3 per cent. The model predicted 40 deaths, and 42 deaths were observed (P = 0.950). Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis of the model for prediction of mortality demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.94 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97).
Conclusion: An accurate model was developed to predict the probability of death from acute burn injury based on simple and objective clinical criteria.},
  author       = {Blot, Stijn and Brusselaers, Nele and Monstrey, Stan and Vandewoude, Koenraad and De Waele, Jan and Colpaert, Kirsten and Decruyenaere, Johan and Malbrain, M and Lafaire, C and Fauville, J-P and Jennes, S and Casaer, MP and Muller, J and Jacquemin, D and De Bacquer, Dirk and Hoste, Eric},
  issn         = {0007-1323},
  journal      = {BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {111--117},
  title        = {Development and validation of a model for prediction of mortality in patients with acute burn injury},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bjs.6329},
  volume       = {96},
  year         = {2009},
}

Altmetric
View in Altmetric
Web of Science
Times cited: