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Abstract
As a network is dimensioned to cope with future traffic, forecasts have to be used. In this paper we identify some parameters to describe such an uncertain forecast. We distinguish the predicted value for the considered variable (e.g. based on an expert's view) and an uncertainty level that indicates the doubt there is about the used forecast. Three possible implementations of an uncertain value are presented, which allow us to formalize some common planning practices that use a fixed safety margin to handle uncertainty. We show that it is very difficult to choose an appropriate value for this margin and that a wrong choice may lead to unexpected results. In a case study we consider the dimensioning of a pan-European network subject to uncertain traffic forecasts, under different protection schemes.
Keywords
uncertain traffic forecasts, survivable design to demand uncertainty, telecom network planning

Citation

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MLA
Verbrugge, Sofie, Didier Colle, Mario Pickavet, et al. “Common Planning Practices for Network Dimensioning Under Traffic Uncertainty.” Fourth International Workshop on Design of Reliable Communication Networks (DCRN 2003), Proceedings : Design and Management of Highly Reliable Networks and Services. Ed. M Mac Gregor. New York, NY, USA: IEEE, 2003. 317–324. Print.
APA
Verbrugge, S., Colle, D., Pickavet, M., & Demeester, P. (2003). Common planning practices for network dimensioning under traffic uncertainty. In M. Mac Gregor (Ed.), Fourth international workshop on design of reliable communication networks (DCRN 2003), proceedings : design and management of highly reliable networks and services (pp. 317–324). Presented at the 4th International workshop on Design of Reliable Communication Networks (DRCN 2003), New York, NY, USA: IEEE.
Chicago author-date
Verbrugge, Sofie, Didier Colle, Mario Pickavet, and Piet Demeester. 2003. “Common Planning Practices for Network Dimensioning Under Traffic Uncertainty.” In Fourth International Workshop on Design of Reliable Communication Networks (DCRN 2003), Proceedings : Design and Management of Highly Reliable Networks and Services, ed. M Mac Gregor, 317–324. New York, NY, USA: IEEE.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Verbrugge, Sofie, Didier Colle, Mario Pickavet, and Piet Demeester. 2003. “Common Planning Practices for Network Dimensioning Under Traffic Uncertainty.” In Fourth International Workshop on Design of Reliable Communication Networks (DCRN 2003), Proceedings : Design and Management of Highly Reliable Networks and Services, ed. M Mac Gregor, 317–324. New York, NY, USA: IEEE.
Vancouver
1.
Verbrugge S, Colle D, Pickavet M, Demeester P. Common planning practices for network dimensioning under traffic uncertainty. In: Mac Gregor M, editor. Fourth international workshop on design of reliable communication networks (DCRN 2003), proceedings : design and management of highly reliable networks and services. New York, NY, USA: IEEE; 2003. p. 317–24.
IEEE
[1]
S. Verbrugge, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, and P. Demeester, “Common planning practices for network dimensioning under traffic uncertainty,” in Fourth international workshop on design of reliable communication networks (DCRN 2003), proceedings : design and management of highly reliable networks and services, Banff, AB, Canada, 2003, pp. 317–324.
@inproceedings{403700,
  abstract     = {As a network is dimensioned to cope with future traffic, forecasts have to be used. In this paper we identify some parameters to describe such an uncertain forecast. We distinguish the predicted value for the considered variable (e.g. based on an expert's view) and an uncertainty level that indicates the doubt there is about the used forecast. Three possible implementations of an uncertain value are presented, which allow us to formalize some common planning practices that use a fixed safety margin to handle uncertainty. We show that it is very difficult to choose an appropriate value for this margin and that a wrong choice may lead to unexpected results. In a case study we consider the dimensioning of a pan-European network subject to uncertain traffic forecasts, under different protection schemes.},
  author       = {Verbrugge, Sofie and Colle, Didier and Pickavet, Mario and Demeester, Piet},
  booktitle    = {Fourth international workshop on design of reliable communication networks (DCRN 2003), proceedings : design and management of highly reliable networks and services},
  editor       = {Mac Gregor, M},
  isbn         = {0-7803-8118-1},
  keywords     = {uncertain traffic forecasts,survivable design to demand uncertainty,telecom network planning},
  language     = {eng},
  location     = {Banff, AB, Canada},
  pages        = {317--324},
  publisher    = {IEEE},
  title        = {Common planning practices for network dimensioning under traffic uncertainty},
  year         = {2003},
}

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