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Predicting the short-term risk of diabetes in HIV-positive patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study

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Abstract
Introduction: HIV-positive patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) frequently experience metabolic complications such as dyslipidemia and insulin resistance, as well as lipodystrophy, increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Rates of DM and other glucose-associated disorders among HIV-positive patients have been reported to range between 2 and 14%, and in an ageing HIV-positive population, the prevalence of DM is expected to continue to increase. This study aims to develop a model to predict the short-term (six-month) risk of DM in HIV-positive populations and to compare the existing models developed in the general population. Methods: All patients recruited to the Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with follow-up data, without prior DM, myocardial infarction or other CVD events and with a complete DM risk factor profile were included. Conventional risk factors identified in the general population as well as key HIV-related factors were assessed using Poisson-regression methods. Expected probabilities of DM events were also determined based on the Framingham Offspring Study DM equation. The D:A:D and Framingham equations were then assessed using an internal-external validation process; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and predicted DM events were determined. Results: Of 33,308 patients, 16,632 (50%) patients were included, with 376 cases of new onset DM during 89,469 person-years (PY). Factors predictive of DM included higher glucose, body mass index (BMI) and triglyceride levels, and older age. Among HIV-related factors, recent CD4 counts of < 200 cells/mu L and lipodystrophy were predictive of new onset DM. The mean performance of the D:A:D and Framingham equations yielded AUROC of 0.894 (95% CI: 0.849, 0.940) and 0.877 (95% CI: 0.823, 0.932), respectively. The Framingham equation over-predicted DM events compared to D:A:D for lower glucose and lower triglycerides, and for BMI levels below 25 kg/m(2). Conclusions: The D:A:D equation performed well in predicting the short-term onset of DM in the validation dataset and for specific subgroups provided better estimates of DM risk than the Framingham.
Keywords
CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE, MELLITUS, PROGNOSTIC MODEL, INFECTED PATIENTS, ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY, MULTICENTER AIDS COHORT, HIV, combination antiretroviral treatment, risk equation, diabetes mellitus, VALIDATION, ADULTS, LIPODYSTROPHY, ASSOCIATION

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MLA
Petoumenos, Kathy, Signe W Worm, Eric Fontas, et al. “Predicting the Short-term Risk of Diabetes in HIV-positive Patients: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) Study.” JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL AIDS SOCIETY 15 (2012): n. pag. Print.
APA
Petoumenos, Kathy, Worm, S. W., Fontas, E., Weber, R., De Wit, S., Bruyand, M., Reiss, P., et al. (2012). Predicting the short-term risk of diabetes in HIV-positive patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL AIDS SOCIETY, 15.
Chicago author-date
Petoumenos, Kathy, Signe W Worm, Eric Fontas, Rainer Weber, Stephane De Wit, Mathias Bruyand, Peter Reiss, et al. 2012. “Predicting the Short-term Risk of Diabetes in HIV-positive Patients: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) Study.” Journal of the International Aids Society 15.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Petoumenos, Kathy, Signe W Worm, Eric Fontas, Rainer Weber, Stephane De Wit, Mathias Bruyand, Peter Reiss, Wafaa El-Sadr, Antonella D’Arminio Monforte, Nina Friss-Moller, Jens D Lundgren, Matthew G Law, the D:A:D study group, and Linos Vandekerckhove. 2012. “Predicting the Short-term Risk of Diabetes in HIV-positive Patients: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) Study.” Journal of the International Aids Society 15.
Vancouver
1.
Petoumenos K, Worm SW, Fontas E, Weber R, De Wit S, Bruyand M, et al. Predicting the short-term risk of diabetes in HIV-positive patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL AIDS SOCIETY. 2012;15.
IEEE
[1]
K. Petoumenos et al., “Predicting the short-term risk of diabetes in HIV-positive patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study,” JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL AIDS SOCIETY, vol. 15, 2012.
@article{3225960,
  abstract     = {Introduction: HIV-positive patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) frequently experience metabolic complications such as dyslipidemia and insulin resistance, as well as lipodystrophy, increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Rates of DM and other glucose-associated disorders among HIV-positive patients have been reported to range between 2 and 14%, and in an ageing HIV-positive population, the prevalence of DM is expected to continue to increase. This study aims to develop a model to predict the short-term (six-month) risk of DM in HIV-positive populations and to compare the existing models developed in the general population. 
Methods: All patients recruited to the Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with follow-up data, without prior DM, myocardial infarction or other CVD events and with a complete DM risk factor profile were included. Conventional risk factors identified in the general population as well as key HIV-related factors were assessed using Poisson-regression methods. Expected probabilities of DM events were also determined based on the Framingham Offspring Study DM equation. The D:A:D and Framingham equations were then assessed using an internal-external validation process; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and predicted DM events were determined. 
Results: Of 33,308 patients, 16,632 (50%) patients were included, with 376 cases of new onset DM during 89,469 person-years (PY). Factors predictive of DM included higher glucose, body mass index (BMI) and triglyceride levels, and older age. Among HIV-related factors, recent CD4 counts of < 200 cells/mu L and lipodystrophy were predictive of new onset DM. The mean performance of the D:A:D and Framingham equations yielded AUROC of 0.894 (95% CI: 0.849, 0.940) and 0.877 (95% CI: 0.823, 0.932), respectively. The Framingham equation over-predicted DM events compared to D:A:D for lower glucose and lower triglycerides, and for BMI levels below 25 kg/m(2). 
Conclusions: The D:A:D equation performed well in predicting the short-term onset of DM in the validation dataset and for specific subgroups provided better estimates of DM risk than the Framingham.},
  articleno    = {17426},
  author       = {Petoumenos, Kathy and Worm, Signe W and Fontas, Eric and Weber, Rainer and De Wit, Stephane and Bruyand, Mathias and Reiss, Peter and El-Sadr, Wafaa and D'Arminio Monforte, Antonella and Friss-Moller, Nina and Lundgren, Jens D and Law, Matthew G and D:A:D study group, the and Vandekerckhove, Linos},
  issn         = {1758-2652},
  journal      = {JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL AIDS SOCIETY},
  keywords     = {CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE,MELLITUS,PROGNOSTIC MODEL,INFECTED PATIENTS,ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY,MULTICENTER AIDS COHORT,HIV,combination antiretroviral treatment,risk equation,diabetes mellitus,VALIDATION,ADULTS,LIPODYSTROPHY,ASSOCIATION},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {10},
  title        = {Predicting the short-term risk of diabetes in HIV-positive patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.7448/IAS.15.2.17426},
  volume       = {15},
  year         = {2012},
}

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