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Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

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Abstract
Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly.
Keywords
Climate change, Food security, Crop modeling, Crop yield, Scenario, Food production, Policy, China, CROP YIELD, CO2 FERTILIZATION, MODEL, SIMULATION, PRODUCTIVITY, TEMPERATURE, ADAPTATION, EMISSIONS, CARBON, SCALE

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Chicago
Ye, Liming, Wei Xiong, Zhengguo Li, Peng Yang, Wenbin Wu, Guixia Yang, Yijiang Fu, et al. 2013. “Climate Change Impact on China Food Security in 2050.” Agronomy for Sustainable Development 33 (2): 363–374.
APA
Ye, Liming, Xiong, W., Li, Z., Yang, P., Wu, W., Yang, G., Fu, Y., et al. (2013). Climate change impact on China food security in 2050. AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, 33(2), 363–374.
Vancouver
1.
Ye L, Xiong W, Li Z, Yang P, Wu W, Yang G, et al. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050. AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. 2013;33(2):363–74.
MLA
Ye, Liming, Wei Xiong, Zhengguo Li, et al. “Climate Change Impact on China Food Security in 2050.” AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 33.2 (2013): 363–374. Print.
@article{2964611,
  abstract     = {Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 \% under A2 scenario and +4 \% under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 \% in 2009 to -4.5 \% and +10.2 \% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 \% and +20.0 \% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly.},
  author       = {Ye, Liming and Xiong, Wei and Li, Zhengguo and Yang, Peng and Wu, Wenbin and Yang, Guixia and Fu, Yijiang and zou, Jinqiu and Chen, Zhongxin and Van Ranst, Eric and Tang, Huajun},
  issn         = {1774-0746},
  journal      = {AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT},
  keyword      = {Climate change,Food security,Crop modeling,Crop yield,Scenario,Food production,Policy,China,CROP YIELD,CO2 FERTILIZATION,MODEL,SIMULATION,PRODUCTIVITY,TEMPERATURE,ADAPTATION,EMISSIONS,CARBON,SCALE},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {363--374},
  title        = {Climate change impact on China food security in 2050},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-012-0102-0},
  volume       = {33},
  year         = {2013},
}

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