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Are short-lived jobs stepping stones to long-lasting jobs?

Bart Cockx (UGent) and Matteo Picchio (UGent)
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Abstract
This article assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.
Keywords
long-lasting jobs., transition data, state dependence, stepping stone effect, short-lived jobs, event history model, UNEMPLOYMENT-INSURANCE, TEMPORARY JOBS, NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT, DURATION DATA, LABOR-MARKET, DEAD-ENDS, EMPLOYMENT, MODELS, IMPACT

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Citation

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Chicago
Cockx, Bart, and Matteo Picchio. 2012. “Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-lasting Jobs?” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 74 (5): 646–675.
APA
Cockx, B., & Picchio, M. (2012). Are short-lived jobs stepping stones to long-lasting jobs? OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, 74(5), 646–675.
Vancouver
1.
Cockx B, Picchio M. Are short-lived jobs stepping stones to long-lasting jobs? OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS. 2012;74(5):646–75.
MLA
Cockx, Bart, and Matteo Picchio. “Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-lasting Jobs?” OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS 74.5 (2012): 646–675. Print.
@article{2000377,
  abstract     = {This article assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.},
  author       = {Cockx, Bart and Picchio, Matteo},
  issn         = {1468-0084},
  journal      = {OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {5},
  pages        = {646--675},
  title        = {Are short-lived jobs stepping stones to long-lasting jobs?},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00668.x},
  volume       = {74},
  year         = {2012},
}

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