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Assessing the convergence of LHS Monte Carlo simulations of wastewater treatment models

(2011) WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. 63(10). p.2219-2224
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Abstract
Monte Carlo (MC) simulation appears to be the only currently adopted tool to estimate global sensitivities and uncertainties in wastewater treatment modelling. Such models are highly complex, dynamic and non-linear, requiring long computation times, especially in the scope of MC simulation, due to the large number of simulations usually required. However, no stopping rule to decide on the number of simulations required to achieve a given confidence in the MC simulation results has been adopted so far in the field. In this work, a pragmatic method is proposed to minimize the computation time by using a combination of several criteria. It makes no use of prior knowledge about the model, is very simple, intuitive and can be automated: all convenient features in engineering applications. A case study is used to show an application of the method, and the results indicate that the required number of simulations strongly depends on the model output(s) selected, and on the type and desired accuracy of the analysis conducted. Hence, no prior indication is available regarding the necessary number of MC simulations, but the proposed method is capable of dealing with these variations and stopping the calculations after convergence is reached.
Keywords
global methods, computation time, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, UNCERTAINTY

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

Chicago
Benedetti, Lorenzo, Filip Claeys, Ingmar Nopens, and Peter A Vanrolleghem. 2011. “Assessing the Convergence of LHS Monte Carlo Simulations of Wastewater Treatment Models.” Water Science and Technology 63 (10): 2219–2224.
APA
Benedetti, Lorenzo, Claeys, F., Nopens, I., & Vanrolleghem, P. A. (2011). Assessing the convergence of LHS Monte Carlo simulations of wastewater treatment models. WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 63(10), 2219–2224.
Vancouver
1.
Benedetti L, Claeys F, Nopens I, Vanrolleghem PA. Assessing the convergence of LHS Monte Carlo simulations of wastewater treatment models. WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. 2011;63(10):2219–24.
MLA
Benedetti, Lorenzo, Filip Claeys, Ingmar Nopens, et al. “Assessing the Convergence of LHS Monte Carlo Simulations of Wastewater Treatment Models.” WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 63.10 (2011): 2219–2224. Print.
@article{1922233,
  abstract     = {Monte Carlo (MC) simulation appears to be the only currently adopted tool to estimate global sensitivities and uncertainties in wastewater treatment modelling. Such models are highly complex, dynamic and non-linear, requiring long computation times, especially in the scope of MC simulation, due to the large number of simulations usually required. However, no stopping rule to decide on the number of simulations required to achieve a given confidence in the MC simulation results has been adopted so far in the field. In this work, a pragmatic method is proposed to minimize the computation time by using a combination of several criteria. It makes no use of prior knowledge about the model, is very simple, intuitive and can be automated: all convenient features in engineering applications. A case study is used to show an application of the method, and the results indicate that the required number of simulations strongly depends on the model output(s) selected, and on the type and desired accuracy of the analysis conducted. Hence, no prior indication is available regarding the necessary number of MC simulations, but the proposed method is capable of dealing with these variations and stopping the calculations after convergence is reached.},
  author       = {Benedetti, Lorenzo and Claeys, Filip and Nopens, Ingmar and Vanrolleghem, Peter A},
  issn         = {0273-1223},
  journal      = {WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY},
  keyword      = {global methods,computation time,sensitivity and uncertainty analysis,UNCERTAINTY},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {10},
  pages        = {2219--2224},
  title        = {Assessing the convergence of LHS Monte Carlo simulations of wastewater treatment models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2011.453},
  volume       = {63},
  year         = {2011},
}

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