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NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment

Ides Boone, Yves Van der Stede, Jeroen Dewulf UGent, Winy Messens, Marc Aerts, Georges Daube and Koen Mintiens (2010) JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH. 13(3). p.337-352
abstract
The Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate assumptions in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. This QMRA model allows the testing of mitigation strategies for the reduction of human salmonellosis and aims to serve as a basis for science-based policy making. The NUSAP method was used to assess the subjective component of assumptions in the QMRA model by a set of four pedigree criteria: 'the influence of situational limitations', 'plausibility', 'choice space' and 'the agreement among peers'. After identifying 13 key assumptions relevant for the QMRA model, a workshop was organized to assess the importance of these assumptions on the output of the QMRA. The quality of the assumptions was visualized using diagnostic and kite diagrams. The diagnostic diagram pinpointed assumptions with a high degree of subjectivity and a high 'expected influence on the model results' score. Examples of those assumptions that should be dealt with care are the assumptions regarding the concentration of Salmonella on the pig carcass at the beginning of the slaughter process and the assumptions related to the Salmonella prevalence in the slaughter process. The kite diagrams allowed a clear overview of the pedigree scores for each assumption as well as a representation of expert (dis)agreement. The evaluation of the assumptions using the NUSAP system enhanced the debate on the uncertainty and its communication in the results of a QMRA model. It highlighted the model's strong and weak points and was helpful for redesigning critical modules. Since the evaluation of assumptions allows a more critical approach of the QMRA process, it is useful for policy makers as it aims to increase the transparency and acceptance of management decisions based on a QMRA model.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
year
type
journalArticle (original)
publication status
published
subject
keyword
HUMAN SALMONELLOSIS, assumptions, NUSAP, pedigree matrix, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT, MODEL, MEAT
journal title
JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
J. Risk Res.
volume
13
issue
3
pages
337 - 352
Web of Science type
Article
Web of Science id
000277569200007
JCR category
SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
JCR impact factor
0.946 (2010)
JCR rank
26/83 (2010)
JCR quartile
2 (2010)
ISSN
1366-9877
DOI
10.1080/13669870903564574
language
English
UGent publication?
yes
classification
A1
copyright statement
I have transferred the copyright for this publication to the publisher
id
1060254
handle
http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-1060254
date created
2010-10-18 16:09:04
date last changed
2010-10-19 08:51:02
@article{1060254,
  abstract     = {The Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate assumptions in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. This QMRA model allows the testing of mitigation strategies for the reduction of human salmonellosis and aims to serve as a basis for science-based policy making. The NUSAP method was used to assess the subjective component of assumptions in the QMRA model by a set of four pedigree criteria: 'the influence of situational limitations', 'plausibility', 'choice space' and 'the agreement among peers'. After identifying 13 key assumptions relevant for the QMRA model, a workshop was organized to assess the importance of these assumptions on the output of the QMRA. The quality of the assumptions was visualized using diagnostic and kite diagrams. The diagnostic diagram pinpointed assumptions with a high degree of subjectivity and a high 'expected influence on the model results' score. Examples of those assumptions that should be dealt with care are the assumptions regarding the concentration of Salmonella on the pig carcass at the beginning of the slaughter process and the assumptions related to the Salmonella prevalence in the slaughter process. The kite diagrams allowed a clear overview of the pedigree scores for each assumption as well as a representation of expert (dis)agreement. The evaluation of the assumptions using the NUSAP system enhanced the debate on the uncertainty and its communication in the results of a QMRA model. It highlighted the model's strong and weak points and was helpful for redesigning critical modules. Since the evaluation of assumptions allows a more critical approach of the QMRA process, it is useful for policy makers as it aims to increase the transparency and acceptance of management decisions based on a QMRA model.},
  author       = {Boone, Ides and Van der Stede, Yves and Dewulf, Jeroen and Messens, Winy and Aerts, Marc and Daube, Georges and Mintiens, Koen},
  issn         = {1366-9877},
  journal      = {JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH},
  keyword      = {HUMAN SALMONELLOSIS,assumptions,NUSAP,pedigree matrix,quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA),ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT,MODEL,MEAT},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {337--352},
  title        = {NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13669870903564574},
  volume       = {13},
  year         = {2010},
}

Chicago
Boone, Ides, Yves Van der Stede, Jeroen Dewulf, Winy Messens, Marc Aerts, Georges Daube, and Koen Mintiens. 2010. “NUSAP: a Method to Evaluate the Quality of Assumptions in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment.” Journal of Risk Research 13 (3): 337–352.
APA
Boone, Ides, Van der Stede, Y., Dewulf, J., Messens, W., Aerts, M., Daube, G., & Mintiens, K. (2010). NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment. JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH, 13(3), 337–352.
Vancouver
1.
Boone I, Van der Stede Y, Dewulf J, Messens W, Aerts M, Daube G, et al. NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment. JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH. 2010;13(3):337–52.
MLA
Boone, Ides, Yves Van der Stede, Jeroen Dewulf, et al. “NUSAP: a Method to Evaluate the Quality of Assumptions in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment.” JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH 13.3 (2010): 337–352. Print.