Common neural choice signals reflect accumulated evidence, not confidence
- Author
- Kobe Desender, Andi Smet, Deniz Erdil, Esna Mualla Gunay, Yvonne F Visser, Pierre Le Denmat and Hélène Van Marcke (UGent)
- Organization
- Abstract
- Centro-parietal electroencephalogram signals (centro-parietal positivity and error positivity) correlate with the reported level of confidence. According to recent computational work these signals reflect evidence which feeds into the computation of confidence, not directly confidence. To test this prediction, we causally manipulated prior beliefs to selectively affect confidence, while leaving objective task performance unaffected. Behaviorally, we found that manipulating prior beliefs causally affected confidence without corresponding changes in accuracy and a negligible effect on reaction times. The electroencephalogram data showed a monotonic relation between the reported level of confidence and both centro-parietal positivity and error positivity amplitudes. Importantly, this finding is compatible both with the theory that these signals track confidence as well as with the alternative theory that they track accumulated evidence. Critically, both neural signals were insensitive to the influence of prior beliefs on confidence, showing that they reflect the accumulated evidence that is used by the system to compute confidence, not directly confidence. Likewise, oscillatory activity in alpha and beta band was insensitive to the influence of prior beliefs on confidence. Decoding analyses revealed that the brain does hold shared representations for prior beliefs and confidence, and we identified a frontal signal that is sensitive to both confidence and prior beliefs.
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Citation
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01KE9NCRFCZGG868V5SVBH4WAW
- MLA
- Desender, Kobe, et al. “Common Neural Choice Signals Reflect Accumulated Evidence, Not Confidence.” CEREBRAL CORTEX, vol. 35, no. 8, 2025, doi:10.1093/cercor/bhaf257.
- APA
- Desender, K., Smet, A., Erdil, D., Gunay, E. M., Visser, Y. F., Le Denmat, P., & Van Marcke, H. (2025). Common neural choice signals reflect accumulated evidence, not confidence. CEREBRAL CORTEX, 35(8). https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhaf257
- Chicago author-date
- Desender, Kobe, Andi Smet, Deniz Erdil, Esna Mualla Gunay, Yvonne F Visser, Pierre Le Denmat, and Hélène Van Marcke. 2025. “Common Neural Choice Signals Reflect Accumulated Evidence, Not Confidence.” CEREBRAL CORTEX 35 (8). https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhaf257.
- Chicago author-date (all authors)
- Desender, Kobe, Andi Smet, Deniz Erdil, Esna Mualla Gunay, Yvonne F Visser, Pierre Le Denmat, and Hélène Van Marcke. 2025. “Common Neural Choice Signals Reflect Accumulated Evidence, Not Confidence.” CEREBRAL CORTEX 35 (8). doi:10.1093/cercor/bhaf257.
- Vancouver
- 1.Desender K, Smet A, Erdil D, Gunay EM, Visser YF, Le Denmat P, et al. Common neural choice signals reflect accumulated evidence, not confidence. CEREBRAL CORTEX. 2025;35(8).
- IEEE
- [1]K. Desender et al., “Common neural choice signals reflect accumulated evidence, not confidence,” CEREBRAL CORTEX, vol. 35, no. 8, 2025.
@article{01KE9NCRFCZGG868V5SVBH4WAW,
abstract = {{Centro-parietal electroencephalogram signals (centro-parietal positivity and error positivity) correlate with the reported level of confidence. According to recent computational work these signals reflect evidence which feeds into the computation of confidence, not directly confidence. To test this prediction, we causally manipulated prior beliefs to selectively affect confidence, while leaving objective task performance unaffected. Behaviorally, we found that manipulating prior beliefs causally affected confidence without corresponding changes in accuracy and a negligible effect on reaction times. The electroencephalogram data showed a monotonic relation between the reported level of confidence and both centro-parietal positivity and error positivity amplitudes. Importantly, this finding is compatible both with the theory that these signals track confidence as well as with the alternative theory that they track accumulated evidence. Critically, both neural signals were insensitive to the influence of prior beliefs on confidence, showing that they reflect the accumulated evidence that is used by the system to compute confidence, not directly confidence. Likewise, oscillatory activity in alpha and beta band was insensitive to the influence of prior beliefs on confidence. Decoding analyses revealed that the brain does hold shared representations for prior beliefs and confidence, and we identified a frontal signal that is sensitive to both confidence and prior beliefs.}},
articleno = {{bhaf257}},
author = {{Desender, Kobe and Smet, Andi and Erdil, Deniz and Gunay, Esna Mualla and Visser, Yvonne F and Le Denmat, Pierre and Van Marcke, Hélène}},
issn = {{1047-3211}},
journal = {{CEREBRAL CORTEX}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{8}},
pages = {{13}},
title = {{Common neural choice signals reflect accumulated evidence, not confidence}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhaf257}},
volume = {{35}},
year = {{2025}},
}
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