@article{01KAEVPSYC8YEEJH65P15KJ092,
  abstract     = {{Tests and experiments are critical to Fire Safety Science and Engineering (FSSE), providing essential data for understanding fire behaviour, validating models, and demonstrating compliance with standards. However, traditional emphasis has been placed on data quality rather than on strategically selecting experimental parameters that maximise the expected “utility” of a test. This paper develops a framework to quantify such a utility before execution. The framework builds on Bayesian experimental design principles and accommodates different utility metrics—such as expected information gain, economic value of information, and environmental benefit of information—tailored to FSSE contexts. These metrics explicitly link laboratory-scale tests and experiments to system-level performance indicators, including safety, risk, resilience, and environmental impact. The framework is demonstrated through two examples: (i) quantification of the expected uncertainty reduction in ignition time from repeated cone calorimeter tests, showing that the information gain plateaus after 10–15 trials; and (ii) comparison of two post-fire assessment methods for reinforced concrete structures, where a simplified value-of-information analysis highlights the benefit of testing and identifies the preferred method. Beyond these examples, the proposed framework serves as a versatile tool for utility-based optimisation of experimental design parameters and comparison of alternative experimental protocols.}},
  articleno    = {{104538}},
  author       = {{Franchini, Andrea and Van Coile, Ruben}},
  issn         = {{0379-7112}},
  journal      = {{FIRE SAFETY JOURNAL}},
  keywords     = {{experimental design,bayesian utility quantification,flammability testing,post-fire assessment,uncertainty quantification}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{16}},
  title        = {{Quantifying the expected utility of fire tests and experiments before execution}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2025.104538}},
  volume       = {{159}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}

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