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Conservative decision-making with sets of probabilities : how to infer new choices from previous ones

Arne Decadt (UGent) , Alexander Erreygers (UGent) and Jasper De Bock (UGent)
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Abstract
We study a generalized version of maximizing expected utility, called E-admissibility, to make decisions when the decision-maker's uncertainty is described by a set of probability mass functions. In particular, instead of specifying this set directly, we assume that we only have partial information about the decision-maker's preferences or choices, in the form of which options she rejects from some finite sets of options. We describe both the decision-making process and the available information using choice functions, and we provide an algorithm, based on linear programming, to compute the most conservative extension of a given choice assessment to a choice function that makes decisions based on E-admissibility. Next, we relate this E-admissible extension to the so-called coherent extension and show how the same techniques that are used to simplify the computation of this coherent extension can also be used to simplify that of the E-admissible one. In our experiments, we demonstrate that decision-making with the E-admissible extension is faster and more informative than with the coherent one, but also observe that the required computations are challenging once the parameters of the problem scale.
Keywords
E-admissible extension, Sets of probabilities, E-admissibility, Choice function, Decision-making, Linear programming

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Citation

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

MLA
Decadt, Arne, et al. “Conservative Decision-Making with Sets of Probabilities : How to Infer New Choices from Previous Ones.” FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS, vol. 523, 2026, doi:10.1016/j.fss.2025.109612.
APA
Decadt, A., Erreygers, A., & De Bock, J. (2026). Conservative decision-making with sets of probabilities : how to infer new choices from previous ones. FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS, 523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2025.109612
Chicago author-date
Decadt, Arne, Alexander Erreygers, and Jasper De Bock. 2026. “Conservative Decision-Making with Sets of Probabilities : How to Infer New Choices from Previous Ones.” FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS 523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2025.109612.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Decadt, Arne, Alexander Erreygers, and Jasper De Bock. 2026. “Conservative Decision-Making with Sets of Probabilities : How to Infer New Choices from Previous Ones.” FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS 523. doi:10.1016/j.fss.2025.109612.
Vancouver
1.
Decadt A, Erreygers A, De Bock J. Conservative decision-making with sets of probabilities : how to infer new choices from previous ones. FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS. 2026;523.
IEEE
[1]
A. Decadt, A. Erreygers, and J. De Bock, “Conservative decision-making with sets of probabilities : how to infer new choices from previous ones,” FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS, vol. 523, 2026.
@article{01K6Z8MFA3V2K6W53ZDV85DZ35,
  abstract     = {{We study a generalized version of maximizing expected utility, called E-admissibility, to make decisions when the decision-maker's uncertainty is described by a set of probability mass functions. In particular, instead of specifying this set directly, we assume that we only have partial information about the decision-maker's preferences or choices, in the form of which options she rejects from some finite sets of options. We describe both the decision-making process and the available information using choice functions, and we provide an algorithm, based on linear programming, to compute the most conservative extension of a given choice assessment to a choice function that makes decisions based on E-admissibility. Next, we relate this E-admissible extension to the so-called coherent extension and show how the same techniques that are used to simplify the computation of this coherent extension can also be used to simplify that of the E-admissible one. In our experiments, we demonstrate that decision-making with the E-admissible extension is faster and more informative than with the coherent one, but also observe that the required computations are challenging once the parameters of the problem scale.}},
  articleno    = {{109612}},
  author       = {{Decadt, Arne and Erreygers, Alexander and De Bock, Jasper}},
  issn         = {{0165-0114}},
  journal      = {{FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS}},
  keywords     = {{E-admissible extension,Sets of probabilities,E-admissibility,Choice function,Decision-making,Linear programming}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{26}},
  title        = {{Conservative decision-making with sets of probabilities : how to infer new choices from previous ones}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2025.109612}},
  volume       = {{523}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}

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