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Forecasting silver demand and supply by 2030 : impact of silver-intensive photovoltaic cells and sectoral competition

Vittoria Cattaneo, Justine Mast (UGent) , Isadora Corrêa Hackenhaar (UGent) , Steve Nardone, Stijn Scheerlinck, Jan Mertens (UGent) and Jo Dewulf (UGent)
(2026) RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING. 224.
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Abstract
The availability of raw materials is a key challenge for the expansion of solar energy to the levels needed to mitigate climate change. Therefore, understanding material demand and supply chains is crucial to avoid bottlenecks and enable the transition to sustainable energy. This research examines the global silver requirements of the photovoltaic industry under various deployment and technology trends, along with silver demand from competing industries, to provide a comprehensive supply-demand outlook. The results indicate that by 2030, supply may meet only 62–70 % of demand, which is projected at 48,000–54,000 t/y. The solar industry is expected to be the fastest-growing source of silver demand, reaching 10,000–14,000 t/y (29–41 % of supply). Despite slower growth, demand from competing sectors may rise to 38,000–40,000 t/y. As 72 % of primary silver is produced as co-product, significant expansion of primary output by 2030 is unlikely. Reducing silver consumption in all applications, identifying suitable substitutes, and expanding secondary production are essential to mitigate supply risks.
Keywords
Energy transition, Photovoltaic, Technology shift, Competing sectors, Critical materials, Demand-supply projection, CRITICALITY, FLOWS

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MLA
Cattaneo, Vittoria, et al. “Forecasting Silver Demand and Supply by 2030 : Impact of Silver-Intensive Photovoltaic Cells and Sectoral Competition.” RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING, vol. 224, 2026, doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108562.
APA
Cattaneo, V., Mast, J., Corrêa Hackenhaar, I., Nardone, S., Scheerlinck, S., Mertens, J., & Dewulf, J. (2026). Forecasting silver demand and supply by 2030 : impact of silver-intensive photovoltaic cells and sectoral competition. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING, 224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108562
Chicago author-date
Cattaneo, Vittoria, Justine Mast, Isadora Corrêa Hackenhaar, Steve Nardone, Stijn Scheerlinck, Jan Mertens, and Jo Dewulf. 2026. “Forecasting Silver Demand and Supply by 2030 : Impact of Silver-Intensive Photovoltaic Cells and Sectoral Competition.” RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108562.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Cattaneo, Vittoria, Justine Mast, Isadora Corrêa Hackenhaar, Steve Nardone, Stijn Scheerlinck, Jan Mertens, and Jo Dewulf. 2026. “Forecasting Silver Demand and Supply by 2030 : Impact of Silver-Intensive Photovoltaic Cells and Sectoral Competition.” RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 224. doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108562.
Vancouver
1.
Cattaneo V, Mast J, Corrêa Hackenhaar I, Nardone S, Scheerlinck S, Mertens J, et al. Forecasting silver demand and supply by 2030 : impact of silver-intensive photovoltaic cells and sectoral competition. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING. 2026;224.
IEEE
[1]
V. Cattaneo et al., “Forecasting silver demand and supply by 2030 : impact of silver-intensive photovoltaic cells and sectoral competition,” RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING, vol. 224, 2026.
@article{01K3TFA7NAP51EBAXBPHJ3PR48,
  abstract     = {{The availability of raw materials is a key challenge for the expansion of solar energy to the levels needed to mitigate climate change. Therefore, understanding material demand and supply chains is crucial to avoid bottlenecks and enable the transition to sustainable energy. This research examines the global silver requirements of the photovoltaic industry under various deployment and technology trends, along with silver demand from competing industries, to provide a comprehensive supply-demand outlook. The results indicate that by 2030, supply may meet only 62–70 % of demand, which is projected at 48,000–54,000 t/y. The solar industry is expected to be the fastest-growing source of silver demand, reaching 10,000–14,000 t/y (29–41 % of supply). Despite slower growth, demand from competing sectors may rise to 38,000–40,000 t/y. As 72 % of primary silver is produced as co-product, significant expansion of primary output by 2030 is unlikely. Reducing silver consumption in all applications, identifying suitable substitutes, and expanding secondary production are essential to mitigate supply risks.}},
  articleno    = {{108562}},
  author       = {{Cattaneo, Vittoria and Mast, Justine and Corrêa Hackenhaar, Isadora and Nardone, Steve and Scheerlinck, Stijn and Mertens, Jan and Dewulf, Jo}},
  issn         = {{0921-3449}},
  journal      = {{RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING}},
  keywords     = {{Energy transition,Photovoltaic,Technology shift,Competing sectors,Critical materials,Demand-supply projection,CRITICALITY,FLOWS}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{11}},
  title        = {{Forecasting silver demand and supply by 2030 : impact of silver-intensive photovoltaic cells and sectoral competition}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108562}},
  volume       = {{224}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}
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