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Unraveling policy effects on airline networks in China : a temporal exponential random graph framework for slot control and route entry restrictions

Yue Hu (UGent) , Liang Dai (UGent) , Kurt Fuellhart (UGent) and Frank Witlox (UGent)
(2025) TRANSPORT POLICY. 171. p.882-895
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Abstract
Although extensive research has examined the impact of deregulation on the air transport market, relatively few studies have investigated how to advance further liberalization in markets still shaped by legacy regulatory policies. This study addresses that gap by focusing on China's domestic air transport market. Using a temporal exponential random graph model framework, we analyze the effects of regulatory policies on the evolution of airline networks. By incorporating both endogenous and exogenous effects, we analyze the differentiated impact of slot control policies and route entry restrictions across different types of carriers. Results show that slot control policies influence network development for all carrier categories, whereas route entry restrictions primarily constrain the network expansion of Network-expansion carriers. Moreover, these carriers encounter greater challenges when attempting to access slot-controlled airports than when navigating route entry barriers. The study concludes with policy recommendations to reduce these barriers to support more equitable and efficient network growth.
Keywords
Aviation liberalization, Legacy policy, Temporal exponential random graph model, Preferential attachment effect, Triadic closure effect, Airline networks, China, AIR TRANSPORT NETWORK, LOW-COST CARRIERS, HIGH-SPEED RAIL, EUROPEAN AVIATION, COMPETITION, LIBERALIZATION, IMPACT, DEREGULATION, TOPOLOGY, TOURISM

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MLA
Hu, Yue, et al. “Unraveling Policy Effects on Airline Networks in China : A Temporal Exponential Random Graph Framework for Slot Control and Route Entry Restrictions.” TRANSPORT POLICY, vol. 171, 2025, pp. 882–95, doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.017.
APA
Hu, Y., Dai, L., Fuellhart, K., & Witlox, F. (2025). Unraveling policy effects on airline networks in China : a temporal exponential random graph framework for slot control and route entry restrictions. TRANSPORT POLICY, 171, 882–895. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.017
Chicago author-date
Hu, Yue, Liang Dai, Kurt Fuellhart, and Frank Witlox. 2025. “Unraveling Policy Effects on Airline Networks in China : A Temporal Exponential Random Graph Framework for Slot Control and Route Entry Restrictions.” TRANSPORT POLICY 171: 882–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.017.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Hu, Yue, Liang Dai, Kurt Fuellhart, and Frank Witlox. 2025. “Unraveling Policy Effects on Airline Networks in China : A Temporal Exponential Random Graph Framework for Slot Control and Route Entry Restrictions.” TRANSPORT POLICY 171: 882–895. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.017.
Vancouver
1.
Hu Y, Dai L, Fuellhart K, Witlox F. Unraveling policy effects on airline networks in China : a temporal exponential random graph framework for slot control and route entry restrictions. TRANSPORT POLICY. 2025;171:882–95.
IEEE
[1]
Y. Hu, L. Dai, K. Fuellhart, and F. Witlox, “Unraveling policy effects on airline networks in China : a temporal exponential random graph framework for slot control and route entry restrictions,” TRANSPORT POLICY, vol. 171, pp. 882–895, 2025.
@article{01K1HGW9GAR4EDS8K8BNFAWTXR,
  abstract     = {{Although extensive research has examined the impact of deregulation on the air transport market, relatively few studies have investigated how to advance further liberalization in markets still shaped by legacy regulatory policies. This study addresses that gap by focusing on China's domestic air transport market. Using a temporal exponential random graph model framework, we analyze the effects of regulatory policies on the evolution of airline networks. By incorporating both endogenous and exogenous effects, we analyze the differentiated impact of slot control policies and route entry restrictions across different types of carriers. Results show that slot control policies influence network development for all carrier categories, whereas route entry restrictions primarily constrain the network expansion of Network-expansion carriers. Moreover, these carriers encounter greater challenges when attempting to access slot-controlled airports than when navigating route entry barriers. The study concludes with policy recommendations to reduce these barriers to support more equitable and efficient network growth.}},
  author       = {{Hu, Yue and Dai, Liang and Fuellhart, Kurt and Witlox, Frank}},
  issn         = {{0967-070X}},
  journal      = {{TRANSPORT POLICY}},
  keywords     = {{Aviation liberalization,Legacy policy,Temporal exponential random graph model,Preferential attachment effect,Triadic closure effect,Airline networks,China,AIR TRANSPORT NETWORK,LOW-COST CARRIERS,HIGH-SPEED RAIL,EUROPEAN AVIATION,COMPETITION,LIBERALIZATION,IMPACT,DEREGULATION,TOPOLOGY,TOURISM}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{882--895}},
  title        = {{Unraveling policy effects on airline networks in China : a temporal exponential random graph framework for slot control and route entry restrictions}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.017}},
  volume       = {{171}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}
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