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Party mobilisation in the era of direct democracy : an analysis of parties’ role in local referendums in Flanders (Belgium)

Ward Maréchal (UGent) and Bram Wauters (UGent)
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Abstract
The traditional role of local political parties, as central actors in the party paradigm, is increasingly challenged by democratic innovations like referendums. This raises key questions: Do these innovations signal a decline in the centrality of parties, suggesting a paradigm shift? Or do parties actively seek to maintain their power, and if so, how? One strategy that parties use to retain influence during referendums is to assume the participant role. By encouraging voter engagement, either in favour of or against specific proposals, parties attempt to shape the referendum outcome in their favour. This paper explores how local parties respond to local referendums, focusing on voter mobilization as a key strategy. This study provides the first empirical analysis of party mobilization during local referendums. Using a framework based on the three I’s—institutions, ideas, and interests—we assess the extent of party mobilization and the factors influencing it during local referendums. The analysis examines 25 local referendums in Flanders (Belgium) from 1996 to 2024, encompassing 118 observations. Data were gathered through a systematic review of newspaper articles, creating a comprehensive dataset analysed via logistic regression. The findings show that parties do not passively accept a decline in influence but actively work to preserve the party paradigm. Over 75% of local parties engage in mobilization efforts, with varying levels based on the referendum topic. Local government parties, in particular, prioritize mobilization, especially when opposition parties initiate the referendum, often promoting pro-voting or encouraging abstention. This behaviour is likely driven by a desire to protect their current influence. The study also explores how factors such as municipal size, referendum experience, party ideology, and referendum competitiveness affect mobilization efforts. This research enhances our understanding of the dynamics between party politics and direct democracy, affirming the continued relevance of the party paradigm in contemporary democratic processes.

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MLA
Maréchal, Ward, and Bram Wauters. “Party Mobilisation in the Era of Direct Democracy : An Analysis of Parties’ Role in Local Referendums in Flanders (Belgium).” LoPaPol 2025 : Conference Local Party Politics, Proceedings, 2025, pp. 1–45.
APA
Maréchal, W., & Wauters, B. (2025). Party mobilisation in the era of direct democracy : an analysis of parties’ role in local referendums in Flanders (Belgium). LoPaPol 2025 : Conference Local Party Politics, Proceedings, 1–45.
Chicago author-date
Maréchal, Ward, and Bram Wauters. 2025. “Party Mobilisation in the Era of Direct Democracy : An Analysis of Parties’ Role in Local Referendums in Flanders (Belgium).” In LoPaPol 2025 : Conference Local Party Politics, Proceedings, 1–45.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Maréchal, Ward, and Bram Wauters. 2025. “Party Mobilisation in the Era of Direct Democracy : An Analysis of Parties’ Role in Local Referendums in Flanders (Belgium).” In LoPaPol 2025 : Conference Local Party Politics, Proceedings, 1–45.
Vancouver
1.
Maréchal W, Wauters B. Party mobilisation in the era of direct democracy : an analysis of parties’ role in local referendums in Flanders (Belgium). In: LoPaPol 2025 : conference Local Party Politics, Proceedings. 2025. p. 1–45.
IEEE
[1]
W. Maréchal and B. Wauters, “Party mobilisation in the era of direct democracy : an analysis of parties’ role in local referendums in Flanders (Belgium),” in LoPaPol 2025 : conference Local Party Politics, Proceedings, Leiden, the Netherlands, 2025, pp. 1–45.
@inproceedings{01JSEZBHTBEGYQE3T8STP83GNC,
  abstract     = {{The traditional role of local political parties, as central actors in the party paradigm, is increasingly challenged by democratic innovations like referendums. This raises key questions: Do these innovations signal a decline in the centrality of parties, suggesting a paradigm shift? Or do parties actively seek to maintain their power, and if so, how? One strategy that parties use to retain influence during referendums is to assume the participant role. By encouraging voter engagement, either in favour of or against specific proposals, parties attempt to shape the referendum outcome in their favour. This paper explores how local parties respond to local referendums, focusing on voter mobilization as a key strategy.
This study provides the first empirical analysis of party mobilization during local referendums. Using a framework based on the three I’s—institutions, ideas, and interests—we assess the extent of party mobilization and the factors influencing it during local referendums. The analysis examines 25 local referendums in Flanders (Belgium) from 1996 to 2024, encompassing 118 observations. Data were gathered through a systematic review of newspaper articles, creating a comprehensive dataset analysed via logistic regression.
The findings show that parties do not passively accept a decline in influence but actively work to preserve the party paradigm. Over 75% of local parties engage in mobilization efforts, with varying levels based on the referendum topic. Local government parties, in particular, prioritize mobilization, especially when opposition parties initiate the referendum, often promoting pro-voting or encouraging abstention. This behaviour is likely driven by a desire to protect their current influence. The study also explores how factors such as municipal size, referendum experience, party ideology, and referendum competitiveness affect mobilization efforts.
This research enhances our understanding of the dynamics between party politics and direct democracy, affirming the continued relevance of the party paradigm in contemporary democratic processes.}},
  author       = {{Maréchal, Ward and Wauters, Bram}},
  booktitle    = {{LoPaPol 2025 : conference Local Party Politics, Proceedings}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  location     = {{Leiden, the Netherlands}},
  pages        = {{1--45}},
  title        = {{Party mobilisation in the era of direct democracy : an analysis of parties’ role in local referendums in Flanders (Belgium)}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}