@misc{01JKD8GQXVM3P3HKQ9NS55S4JE,
  abstract     = {{  Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense
due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local
response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains
uncertain due mainly to dynamical differences. In this study, we outline a
methodology for a regional assessment of future extreme precipitation based on
the Lamb Weather Type classification and to evaluate future changes in weather
patterns. While anticyclonic days occur most frequently over Belgium, extreme
rainfall is mostly associated with days of cyclonic, westerly and
south-westerly weather patterns. GCMs from CMIP6 are first selected based on
their reliability in representing local atmospheric circulation patterns during
days with extreme rainfall days. It was found that for our case study over
Belgium, the future (end-of-the-century SSP3-7.0) changes in intensity and
likelihood of rainfall extremes can be primarily attributed to thermodynamic
factors, with minimal contribution from changes in atmospheric dynamics. Both
intensity and probability of extreme rainfall increase for all seasons. While
extreme-rainfall probabilities mostly increase in fall and winter, the
associated intensity changes are dominated by positive changes in spring and
summer. Additionally, the weather patterns that are historically associated
with extreme rainfall, disproportionally contribute to these changes,
especially to thermodynamic changes. More specifically, robust changes arise
from an increased extreme-rainfall occurrence probability in case of cyclonic,
south-westerly and westerly circulation types.
}},
  author       = {{Schoofs, Jozefien and Vandelanotte, Kobe and Van de Vyver, Hans and Van Der Sichel, Line and Vandersteene, Matthias and Serras, Fien and P. M. van Lipzig, Nicole and Van Schaeybroeck, Bert}},
  keywords     = {{circulation patterns,extreme precipitation,dynamical changes,model selection,climate change,CMIP6,Lamb weather types}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{36}},
  title        = {{Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to future extreme-rainfall intensification: a case study for Belgium}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2502.02436}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}

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