Quantifying climate change variability for the better management of water resources : the case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia
- Author
- Mengesha Tesfaw, Mekete Dessie, Kristine Walraevens (UGent) , Thomas Hermans (UGent) , Fenta Nigate Abera, Tewodros Assefa and Kasye Shitu
- Organization
- Project
- Abstract
- Alterations in the hydrological cycle due to climate change are one of the key threats to the future accessibility of natural resources. This study used 12 GCM climate models from CMIP6 to evaluate future climate change scenarios by applying model performance measures and trend analysis in Kobo Valley, Ethiopia. The models were ranked based on their ability to analyze the historical datasets. The result of this study showed that the outputs of the FIO-ESM-2-0 CIMP6 model had a good overall ranking for both precipitation and temperature. After bias correction of the model-based projections with the observed data, the average annual precipitation in the average scenario (SSP2-4.5) decreased by 4.4% and 13% in 2054 and 2084, respectively. Similarly, in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5), by the end of 2054 and 2084, decreases of 4% and 12.8%, respectively, were predicted. The average annual maximum temperature under the SSP2-4.5 scenario increased by 1.5 °C in 2054 and by 2.1 °C in 2084. The average annual maximum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 1.7 °C in 2054 and by 3.2 °C in 2084. In the middle scenario (SSP4.5), the average annual minimum temperature increased by 2.2 °C in 2054 and by 3 °C in 2084. The average annual minimum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 2.6 °C in 2054 and by 4.3 °C in 2084. The seasonal variability in precipitation in the studied valley will decrease in the winter and increase in the summer. A decrease in precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will strengthen the risk of drought events in the future.
- Keywords
- climate change, precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, climate projection, Kobo, Valley, Ethiopia, Kobo Valley, EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
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Citation
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01J9P867PAQSH8J47308KS3X3J
- MLA
- Tesfaw, Mengesha, et al. “Quantifying Climate Change Variability for the Better Management of Water Resources : The Case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia.” CLIMATE, vol. 12, no. 10, 2024, doi:10.3390/cli12100159.
- APA
- Tesfaw, M., Dessie, M., Walraevens, K., Hermans, T., Abera, F. N., Assefa, T., & Shitu, K. (2024). Quantifying climate change variability for the better management of water resources : the case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia. CLIMATE, 12(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12100159
- Chicago author-date
- Tesfaw, Mengesha, Mekete Dessie, Kristine Walraevens, Thomas Hermans, Fenta Nigate Abera, Tewodros Assefa, and Kasye Shitu. 2024. “Quantifying Climate Change Variability for the Better Management of Water Resources : The Case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia.” CLIMATE 12 (10). https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12100159.
- Chicago author-date (all authors)
- Tesfaw, Mengesha, Mekete Dessie, Kristine Walraevens, Thomas Hermans, Fenta Nigate Abera, Tewodros Assefa, and Kasye Shitu. 2024. “Quantifying Climate Change Variability for the Better Management of Water Resources : The Case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia.” CLIMATE 12 (10). doi:10.3390/cli12100159.
- Vancouver
- 1.Tesfaw M, Dessie M, Walraevens K, Hermans T, Abera FN, Assefa T, et al. Quantifying climate change variability for the better management of water resources : the case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia. CLIMATE. 2024;12(10).
- IEEE
- [1]M. Tesfaw et al., “Quantifying climate change variability for the better management of water resources : the case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia,” CLIMATE, vol. 12, no. 10, 2024.
@article{01J9P867PAQSH8J47308KS3X3J,
abstract = {{Alterations in the hydrological cycle due to climate change are one of the key threats to the future accessibility of natural resources. This study used 12 GCM climate models from CMIP6 to evaluate future climate change scenarios by applying model performance measures and trend analysis in Kobo Valley, Ethiopia. The models were ranked based on their ability to analyze the historical datasets. The result of this study showed that the outputs of the FIO-ESM-2-0 CIMP6 model had a good overall ranking for both precipitation and temperature. After bias correction of the model-based projections with the observed data, the average annual precipitation in the average scenario (SSP2-4.5) decreased by 4.4% and 13% in 2054 and 2084, respectively. Similarly, in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5), by the end of 2054 and 2084, decreases of 4% and 12.8%, respectively, were predicted. The average annual maximum temperature under the SSP2-4.5 scenario increased by 1.5 °C in 2054 and by 2.1 °C in 2084. The average annual maximum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 1.7 °C in 2054 and by 3.2 °C in 2084. In the middle scenario (SSP4.5), the average annual minimum temperature increased by 2.2 °C in 2054 and by 3 °C in 2084. The average annual minimum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 2.6 °C in 2054 and by 4.3 °C in 2084. The seasonal variability in precipitation in the studied valley will decrease in the winter and increase in the summer. A decrease in precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will strengthen the risk of drought events in the future.}},
articleno = {{159}},
author = {{Tesfaw, Mengesha and Dessie, Mekete and Walraevens, Kristine and Hermans, Thomas and Abera, Fenta Nigate and Assefa, Tewodros and Shitu, Kasye}},
issn = {{2225-1154}},
journal = {{CLIMATE}},
keywords = {{climate change,precipitation,temperature,evapotranspiration,climate projection,Kobo,Valley,Ethiopia,Kobo Valley,EARTH SYSTEM MODELS}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{10}},
pages = {{24}},
title = {{Quantifying climate change variability for the better management of water resources : the case of Kobo Valley, Danakil Basin, Ethiopia}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.3390/cli12100159}},
volume = {{12}},
year = {{2024}},
}
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