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The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area

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Abstract
This paper traces the existence of an energy transmission channel of temperature anomalies to Euro-Area inflation. We show that, on average, warmer temperature shocks elicit a negative energy demand shift, exerting moderate deflationary pressure. By looking into several asymmetries and macroeconomic indicators, we rationalize that evidence as signaling that the “turn-off-heating” effect in Europe outweighs the “turn-on-cooling”. This result becomes clearer when energy market responses are decomposed into gas and electricity components. Weak inflationary effects from non-energy items are at play when the shock hits during warm seasons. A persistent inflationary tendency manifests when food and energy prices rise, an outcome emerging only when negative anomalies – cold spells – hit. These findings shed new light on monitoring price stability due to global warming.
Keywords
Climate change, Temperature shock, Macroeconomics, Inflation, Local projections, Energy market, Euro Area, Local, projections, CLIMATE-CHANGE, LOCAL PROJECTIONS, WEATHER, INCREASES, IMPACTS, DISRUPTIONS, COMPETITION, RESPONSES, MARKET

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MLA
Lucidi, Francesco Simone, et al. “The Effects of Temperature Shocks on Energy Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area.” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 166, 2024, doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771.
APA
Lucidi, F. S., Pisa, M. M., & Tancioni, M. (2024). The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area. EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771
Chicago author-date
Lucidi, Francesco Simone, Marta Maria Pisa, and Massimiliano Tancioni. 2024. “The Effects of Temperature Shocks on Energy Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area.” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Lucidi, Francesco Simone, Marta Maria Pisa, and Massimiliano Tancioni. 2024. “The Effects of Temperature Shocks on Energy Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area.” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 166. doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771.
Vancouver
1.
Lucidi FS, Pisa MM, Tancioni M. The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area. EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. 2024;166.
IEEE
[1]
F. S. Lucidi, M. M. Pisa, and M. Tancioni, “The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area,” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 166, 2024.
@article{01J2TWKGSZJ8R6DG9JNE0X5G4X,
  abstract     = {{This paper traces the existence of an energy transmission channel of temperature anomalies to Euro-Area inflation. We show that, on average, warmer temperature shocks elicit a negative energy demand shift, exerting moderate deflationary pressure. By looking into several asymmetries and macroeconomic indicators, we rationalize that evidence as signaling that the “turn-off-heating” effect in Europe outweighs the “turn-on-cooling”. This result becomes clearer when energy market responses are decomposed into gas and electricity components. Weak inflationary effects from non-energy items are at play when the shock hits during warm seasons. A persistent inflationary tendency manifests when food and energy prices rise, an outcome emerging only when negative anomalies – cold spells – hit. These findings shed new light on monitoring price stability due to global warming.}},
  articleno    = {{104771}},
  author       = {{Lucidi, Francesco Simone and Pisa, Marta Maria and  Tancioni, Massimiliano}},
  issn         = {{0014-2921}},
  journal      = {{EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW}},
  keywords     = {{Climate change,Temperature shock,Macroeconomics,Inflation,Local projections,Energy market,Euro Area,Local,projections,CLIMATE-CHANGE,LOCAL PROJECTIONS,WEATHER,INCREASES,IMPACTS,DISRUPTIONS,COMPETITION,RESPONSES,MARKET}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{24}},
  title        = {{The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771}},
  volume       = {{166}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}

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