The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area
- Author
- Francesco Simone Lucidi, Marta Maria Pisa (UGent) and Massimiliano Tancioni
- Organization
- Abstract
- This paper traces the existence of an energy transmission channel of temperature anomalies to Euro-Area inflation. We show that, on average, warmer temperature shocks elicit a negative energy demand shift, exerting moderate deflationary pressure. By looking into several asymmetries and macroeconomic indicators, we rationalize that evidence as signaling that the “turn-off-heating” effect in Europe outweighs the “turn-on-cooling”. This result becomes clearer when energy market responses are decomposed into gas and electricity components. Weak inflationary effects from non-energy items are at play when the shock hits during warm seasons. A persistent inflationary tendency manifests when food and energy prices rise, an outcome emerging only when negative anomalies – cold spells – hit. These findings shed new light on monitoring price stability due to global warming.
- Keywords
- Climate change, Temperature shock, Macroeconomics, Inflation, Local projections, Energy market, Euro Area, Local, projections, CLIMATE-CHANGE, LOCAL PROJECTIONS, WEATHER, INCREASES, IMPACTS, DISRUPTIONS, COMPETITION, RESPONSES, MARKET
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Citation
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01J2TWKGSZJ8R6DG9JNE0X5G4X
- MLA
- Lucidi, Francesco Simone, et al. “The Effects of Temperature Shocks on Energy Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area.” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 166, 2024, doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771.
- APA
- Lucidi, F. S., Pisa, M. M., & Tancioni, M. (2024). The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area. EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771
- Chicago author-date
- Lucidi, Francesco Simone, Marta Maria Pisa, and Massimiliano Tancioni. 2024. “The Effects of Temperature Shocks on Energy Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area.” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771.
- Chicago author-date (all authors)
- Lucidi, Francesco Simone, Marta Maria Pisa, and Massimiliano Tancioni. 2024. “The Effects of Temperature Shocks on Energy Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area.” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 166. doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771.
- Vancouver
- 1.Lucidi FS, Pisa MM, Tancioni M. The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area. EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. 2024;166.
- IEEE
- [1]F. S. Lucidi, M. M. Pisa, and M. Tancioni, “The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area,” EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 166, 2024.
@article{01J2TWKGSZJ8R6DG9JNE0X5G4X,
abstract = {{This paper traces the existence of an energy transmission channel of temperature anomalies to Euro-Area inflation. We show that, on average, warmer temperature shocks elicit a negative energy demand shift, exerting moderate deflationary pressure. By looking into several asymmetries and macroeconomic indicators, we rationalize that evidence as signaling that the “turn-off-heating” effect in Europe outweighs the “turn-on-cooling”. This result becomes clearer when energy market responses are decomposed into gas and electricity components. Weak inflationary effects from non-energy items are at play when the shock hits during warm seasons. A persistent inflationary tendency manifests when food and energy prices rise, an outcome emerging only when negative anomalies – cold spells – hit. These findings shed new light on monitoring price stability due to global warming.}},
articleno = {{104771}},
author = {{Lucidi, Francesco Simone and Pisa, Marta Maria and Tancioni, Massimiliano}},
issn = {{0014-2921}},
journal = {{EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW}},
keywords = {{Climate change,Temperature shock,Macroeconomics,Inflation,Local projections,Energy market,Euro Area,Local,projections,CLIMATE-CHANGE,LOCAL PROJECTIONS,WEATHER,INCREASES,IMPACTS,DISRUPTIONS,COMPETITION,RESPONSES,MARKET}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{24}},
title = {{The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104771}},
volume = {{166}},
year = {{2024}},
}
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