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Extrapolating metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) toxicity from individuals to populations across daphnia species using mechanistic models : the roles of uncertainty propagation and combined physiological modes of action

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Abstract
Mechanistic effect modeling is a promising tool to improve the ecological realism of environmental risk assessment. An open question for the mechanistic modeling of metal toxicity is whether the same physiological mode of action (PMoA) could be assumed for closely related species. The implications of various modeling choices, such as the use of parameter point estimates and assumption of simplistic toxicodynamic models, are largely unexplored. We conducted life-table experiments with Daphnia longispina, Daphnia magna, and Daphnia pulex exposed to the single metals Cu, Ni, and Zn, and calibrated toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models based on dynamic energy budget theory. We developed TKTD models with single and combined PMoAs to compare their goodness-of-fit and predicted population-level sensitivity. We identified the PMoA reproduction efficiency as most probable in all species for Ni and Zn, but not for Cu, and found that combined-PMoA models predicted higher population-level sensitivity than single-PMoA models, which was related to the predicted individual-level sensitivity, rather than to mechanistic differences between models. Using point estimates of parameters, instead of sampling from the probability distributions of parameters, could also lead to differences in the predicted population-level sensitivity. According to model predictions, apical chronic endpoints (cumulative reproduction, survival) are conservative for single-metal population effects across metals and species. We conclude that the assumption of an identical PMoA for different species of Daphnia could be justified for Ni and Zn, but not for Cu. Single-PMoA models are more appropriate than combined-PMoA models from a model selection perspective, but propagation of the associated uncertainty should be considered. More accurate predictions of effects at low concentrations may nevertheless motivate the use of combined-PMoA models.
Keywords
Freshwater toxicology, Metals, Population-level effects, Predictive toxicology, Toxicity mechanisms, Mechanistic effect modeling, Dynamic energy budget theory-toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (DEB-TKTD), Physiological modes of action, FRESH-WATER CLADOCERAN, FOOD CONCENTRATION, EMPIRICAL BAYES, MAGNA, DYNAMICS, NICKEL, COPPER, DEBTOX, ZINC

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MLA
Hansul, Simon, et al. “Extrapolating Metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) Toxicity from Individuals to Populations across Daphnia Species Using Mechanistic Models : The Roles of Uncertainty Propagation and Combined Physiological Modes of Action.” ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY, vol. 43, no. 2, 2024, pp. 338–58, doi:10.1002/etc.5782.
APA
Hansul, S., Fettweis, A., Smolders, E., & De Schamphelaere, K. (2024). Extrapolating metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) toxicity from individuals to populations across daphnia species using mechanistic models : the roles of uncertainty propagation and combined physiological modes of action. ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY, 43(2), 338–358. https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.5782
Chicago author-date
Hansul, Simon, Andreas Fettweis, Erik Smolders, and Karel De Schamphelaere. 2024. “Extrapolating Metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) Toxicity from Individuals to Populations across Daphnia Species Using Mechanistic Models : The Roles of Uncertainty Propagation and Combined Physiological Modes of Action.” ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY 43 (2): 338–58. https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.5782.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Hansul, Simon, Andreas Fettweis, Erik Smolders, and Karel De Schamphelaere. 2024. “Extrapolating Metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) Toxicity from Individuals to Populations across Daphnia Species Using Mechanistic Models : The Roles of Uncertainty Propagation and Combined Physiological Modes of Action.” ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY 43 (2): 338–358. doi:10.1002/etc.5782.
Vancouver
1.
Hansul S, Fettweis A, Smolders E, De Schamphelaere K. Extrapolating metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) toxicity from individuals to populations across daphnia species using mechanistic models : the roles of uncertainty propagation and combined physiological modes of action. ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY. 2024;43(2):338–58.
IEEE
[1]
S. Hansul, A. Fettweis, E. Smolders, and K. De Schamphelaere, “Extrapolating metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) toxicity from individuals to populations across daphnia species using mechanistic models : the roles of uncertainty propagation and combined physiological modes of action,” ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 338–358, 2024.
@article{01HY0C59VETSTD8FFS70DCS35Q,
  abstract     = {{Mechanistic effect modeling is a promising tool to improve the ecological realism of environmental risk assessment. An open question for the mechanistic modeling of metal toxicity is whether the same physiological mode of action (PMoA) could be assumed for closely related species. The implications of various modeling choices, such as the use of parameter point estimates and assumption of simplistic toxicodynamic models, are largely unexplored. We conducted life-table experiments with Daphnia longispina, Daphnia magna, and Daphnia pulex exposed to the single metals Cu, Ni, and Zn, and calibrated toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models based on dynamic energy budget theory. We developed TKTD models with single and combined PMoAs to compare their goodness-of-fit and predicted population-level sensitivity. We identified the PMoA reproduction efficiency as most probable in all species for Ni and Zn, but not for Cu, and found that combined-PMoA models predicted higher population-level sensitivity than single-PMoA models, which was related to the predicted individual-level sensitivity, rather than to mechanistic differences between models. Using point estimates of parameters, instead of sampling from the probability distributions of parameters, could also lead to differences in the predicted population-level sensitivity. According to model predictions, apical chronic endpoints (cumulative reproduction, survival) are conservative for single-metal population effects across metals and species. We conclude that the assumption of an identical PMoA for different species of Daphnia could be justified for Ni and Zn, but not for Cu. Single-PMoA models are more appropriate than combined-PMoA models from a model selection perspective, but propagation of the associated uncertainty should be considered. More accurate predictions of effects at low concentrations may nevertheless motivate the use of combined-PMoA models.}},
  author       = {{Hansul, Simon and Fettweis, Andreas and Smolders, Erik and De Schamphelaere, Karel}},
  issn         = {{0730-7268}},
  journal      = {{ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY}},
  keywords     = {{Freshwater toxicology,Metals,Population-level effects,Predictive toxicology,Toxicity mechanisms,Mechanistic effect modeling,Dynamic energy budget theory-toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (DEB-TKTD),Physiological modes of action,FRESH-WATER CLADOCERAN,FOOD CONCENTRATION,EMPIRICAL BAYES,MAGNA,DYNAMICS,NICKEL,COPPER,DEBTOX,ZINC}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  pages        = {{338--358}},
  title        = {{Extrapolating metal (Cu, Ni, Zn) toxicity from individuals to populations across daphnia species using mechanistic models : the roles of uncertainty propagation and combined physiological modes of action}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1002/etc.5782}},
  volume       = {{43}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}

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