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Donald Trump's tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate

Qisi Zhang (UGent) , Michael Frömmel (UGent) and Edwin Baidoo
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Abstract
This study examines the correlation between former U.S. President Donald Trump’s China-related tweets and the daily return and conditional volatility of onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Renminbi exchange rates. Using sentiment analysis techniques to quantify political value judgment, we find that Trump’s sentiment towards China has a significantly negative relationship with the CNH value but no significant linkage with the CNY price. During the trade tension period, both markets’ conditional volatility responded to the tweets, with the CNH daily return displaying a heightened reaction to the sentiment. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering market conditions when analyzing the effects of political rhetoric on different segments of the Renminbi exchange rate market.
Keywords
twitter, Donald Trump, Trump, Renminbi, Chinese Yuan, CNH, CNY, Exchange rate, social media, sentiment, Political value judgment, Trump tweets, Trade tension, COVID-19, RMB, Central parity rate, TIME PRICE DISCOVERY, ANNOUNCEMENTS, PRESSURE, OFFSHORE

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Citation

Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:

MLA
Zhang, Qisi, et al. “Donald Trump’s Tweets, Political Value Judgment, and the Renminbi Exchange Rate.” INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, vol. 93, 2024, doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103159.
APA
Zhang, Q., Frömmel, M., & Baidoo, E. (2024). Donald Trump’s tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, 93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103159
Chicago author-date
Zhang, Qisi, Michael Frömmel, and Edwin Baidoo. 2024. “Donald Trump’s Tweets, Political Value Judgment, and the Renminbi Exchange Rate.” INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103159.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Zhang, Qisi, Michael Frömmel, and Edwin Baidoo. 2024. “Donald Trump’s Tweets, Political Value Judgment, and the Renminbi Exchange Rate.” INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 93. doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103159.
Vancouver
1.
Zhang Q, Frömmel M, Baidoo E. Donald Trump’s tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS. 2024;93.
IEEE
[1]
Q. Zhang, M. Frömmel, and E. Baidoo, “Donald Trump’s tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate,” INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, vol. 93, 2024.
@article{01HX2E84YPS3S20ZHAFRJ4KSFB,
  abstract     = {{This study examines the correlation between former U.S. President Donald Trump’s China-related tweets and the daily return and conditional volatility of onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Renminbi exchange rates. Using sentiment analysis techniques to quantify political value judgment, we find that Trump’s sentiment towards China has a significantly negative relationship with the CNH value but no significant linkage with the CNY price. During the trade tension period, both markets’ conditional volatility responded to the tweets, with the CNH daily return displaying a heightened reaction to the sentiment. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering market conditions when analyzing the effects of political rhetoric on different segments of the Renminbi exchange rate market.}},
  articleno    = {{103159}},
  author       = {{Zhang, Qisi and Frömmel, Michael and Baidoo, Edwin}},
  issn         = {{1057-5219}},
  journal      = {{INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS}},
  keywords     = {{twitter,Donald Trump,Trump,Renminbi,Chinese Yuan,CNH,CNY,Exchange rate,social media,sentiment,Political value judgment,Trump tweets,Trade tension,COVID-19,RMB,Central parity rate,TIME PRICE DISCOVERY,ANNOUNCEMENTS,PRESSURE,OFFSHORE}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{15}},
  title        = {{Donald Trump's tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103159}},
  volume       = {{93}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}

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