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Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle

(2024) EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS. 15(2). p.265-291
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Abstract
Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) play an important role in achieving low-end warming scenarios through land-based mitigation. However, their effects on moisture fluxes and recycling remain uncertain, although they have important implications for the future viability of such strategies. Here, we analyse the impact of idealized LCLMC scenarios on atmospheric moisture transport in three different Earth system model (ESMs): the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). The LCLMC scenarios comprise of a full cropland world, a fully afforested world, and a cropland world with unlimited irrigation expansion. The effects of these LCLMC in the different ESMs are analysed for precipitation, evaporation, and vertically integrated moisture flux convergence to understand the LCLMC-induced changes in the atmospheric moisture cycle. Then, a moisture tracking algorithm is applied to assess the effects of LCLMC on moisture recycling at the local (grid cell level) and the global scale (continental moisture recycling). By applying a moisture tracking algorithm on fully coupled ESM simulations we are able to quantify the complete effects of LCLMC on moisture recycling (including circulation changes), which are generally not considered in moisture recycling studies. Our results indicate that cropland expansion is generally causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation expansion generally cause wetting and increased local moisture recycling. However, the strength of this effect varies across ESMs and shows a large dependency on the dominant driver. Some ESMs show a dominance of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes while other ESMs show a dominance of local to regional changes in the atmospheric water cycle only within the vicinity of the LCLMC. Overall, these results corroborate that LCLMC can induce substantial effects on the atmospheric water cycle and moisture recycling, both through local effects and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, more research is needed to constrain the uncertainty of these effects within ESMs to better inform future land-based mitigation strategies.
Keywords
TEMPERATURE RESPONSE, SURFACE-TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, DEFORESTATION, IRRIGATION, IMPACTS, REMOTE, MODEL, TRANSPIRATION, VARIABILITY

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MLA
De Hertog, Steven, et al. “Effects of Idealized Land Cover and Land Management Changes on the Atmospheric Water Cycle.” EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, vol. 15, no. 2, 2024, pp. 265–91, doi:10.5194/esd-15-265-2024.
APA
De Hertog, S., Lopez-Fabara, C. E., van der Ent, R., Keune, J., Miralles, D., Portmann, R., … Thiery, W. (2024). Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, 15(2), 265–291. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024
Chicago author-date
De Hertog, Steven, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, et al. 2024. “Effects of Idealized Land Cover and Land Management Changes on the Atmospheric Water Cycle.” EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 15 (2): 265–91. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
De Hertog, Steven, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery. 2024. “Effects of Idealized Land Cover and Land Management Changes on the Atmospheric Water Cycle.” EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 15 (2): 265–291. doi:10.5194/esd-15-265-2024.
Vancouver
1.
De Hertog S, Lopez-Fabara CE, van der Ent R, Keune J, Miralles D, Portmann R, et al. Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS. 2024;15(2):265–91.
IEEE
[1]
S. De Hertog et al., “Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle,” EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 265–291, 2024.
@article{01HVGXYPARHPA0V6X16PC76XJS,
  abstract     = {{Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) play an important role in achieving low-end warming scenarios through land-based mitigation. However, their effects on moisture fluxes and recycling remain uncertain, although they have important implications for the future viability of such strategies. Here, we analyse the impact of idealized LCLMC scenarios on atmospheric moisture transport in three different Earth system model (ESMs): the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). The LCLMC scenarios comprise of a full cropland world, a fully afforested world, and a cropland world with unlimited irrigation expansion. The effects of these LCLMC in the different ESMs are analysed for precipitation, evaporation, and vertically integrated moisture flux convergence to understand the LCLMC-induced changes in the atmospheric moisture cycle. Then, a moisture tracking algorithm is applied to assess the effects of LCLMC on moisture recycling at the local (grid cell level) and the global scale (continental moisture recycling). By applying a moisture tracking algorithm on fully coupled ESM simulations we are able to quantify the complete effects of LCLMC on moisture recycling (including circulation changes), which are generally not considered in moisture recycling studies. Our results indicate that cropland expansion is generally causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation expansion generally cause wetting and increased local moisture recycling. However, the strength of this effect varies across ESMs and shows a large dependency on the dominant driver. Some ESMs show a dominance of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes while other ESMs show a dominance of local to regional changes in the atmospheric water cycle only within the vicinity of the LCLMC. Overall, these results corroborate that LCLMC can induce substantial effects on the atmospheric water cycle and moisture recycling, both through local effects and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, more research is needed to constrain the uncertainty of these effects within ESMs to better inform future land-based mitigation strategies.}},
  author       = {{De Hertog, Steven and  Lopez-Fabara, Carmen E. and  van der Ent, Ruud and Keune, Jessica and Miralles, Diego and  Portmann, Raphael and  Schemm, Sebastian and  Havermann, Felix and  Guo, Suqi and  Luo, Fei and  Manola, Iris and  Lejeune, Quentin and  Pongratz, Julia and  Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and  Seneviratne, Sonia I. and  Thiery, Wim}},
  issn         = {{2190-4979}},
  journal      = {{EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS}},
  keywords     = {{TEMPERATURE RESPONSE,SURFACE-TEMPERATURE,PRECIPITATION,DEFORESTATION,IRRIGATION,IMPACTS,REMOTE,MODEL,TRANSPIRATION,VARIABILITY}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  pages        = {{265--291}},
  title        = {{Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}

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