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Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

(2023) NATURE. 624(7990). p.92-101
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Abstract
Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets. Analysis of ground-sourced and satellite-derived models reveals a global forest carbon potential of 226 Gt outside agricultural and urban lands, with a difference of only 12% across these modelling approaches.
Keywords
Climate-change mitigation, Forest ecology, Restoration ecology, cavelab, CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION, LAND-USE CHANGE, ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS, SPATIALLY EXPLICIT, SOIL CARBON, WORLDS, VEGETATION, MAP, MANAGEMENT, PATTERNS

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MLA
Mo, Lidong, et al. “Integrated Global Assessment of the Natural Forest Carbon Potential.” NATURE, vol. 624, no. 7990, 2023, pp. 92–101, doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z.
APA
Mo, L., Zohner, C. M., Reich, P. B., Liang, J., de Miguel, S., Nabuurs, G.-J., … Crowther, T. W. (2023). Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential. NATURE, 624(7990), 92–101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z
Chicago author-date
Mo, Lidong, Constantin M. Zohner, Peter B. Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de Miguel, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Susanne S. Renner, et al. 2023. “Integrated Global Assessment of the Natural Forest Carbon Potential.” NATURE 624 (7990): 92–101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Mo, Lidong, Constantin M. Zohner, Peter B. Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de Miguel, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Susanne S. Renner, Johan van den Hoogen, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, Leila Mirzagholi, Haozhi Ma, Colin Averill, Oliver L. Phillips, Javier G. P. Gamarra, Iris Hordijk, Devin Routh, Meinrad Abegg, Yves C. Adou Yao, Giorgio Alberti, Angelica M. Almeyda Zambrano, Braulio Vilchez Alvarado, Esteban Alvarez-Dávila, Patricia Alvarez-Loayza, Luciana F. Alves, Iêda Amaral, Christian Ammer, Clara Antón-Fernández, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Luzmila Arroyo, Valerio Avitabile, Gerardo A. Aymard, Timothy R. Baker, Radomir Bałazy, Olaf Banki, Jorcely G. Barroso, Meredith L. Bastian, Jean-Francois Bastin, Luca Birigazzi, Philippe Birnbaum, Robert Bitariho, Pascal Boeckx, Frans Bongers, Olivier Bouriaud, Pedro H. S. Brancalion, Susanne Brandl, Francis Q. Brearley, Roel Brienen, Eben N. Broadbent, Helge Bruelheide, Filippo Bussotti, Roberto Cazzolla Gatti, Ricardo G. César, Goran Cesljar, Robin L. Chazdon, Han Y. H. Chen, Chelsea Chisholm, Hyunkook Cho, Emil Cienciala, Connie Clark, David Clark, Gabriel D. Colletta, David A. Coomes, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, José J. Corral-Rivas, Philip M. Crim, Jonathan R. Cumming, Selvadurai Dayanandan, André L. de Gasper, Mathieu Decuyper, Géraldine Derroire, Ben DeVries, Ilija Djordjevic, Jiri Dolezal, Aurélie Dourdain, Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang, Brian J. Enquist, Teresa J. Eyre, Adandé Belarmain Fandohan, Tom M. Fayle, Ted R. Feldpausch, Leandro V. Ferreira, Leena Finér, Markus Fischer, Christine Fletcher, Lorenzo Frizzera, Damiano Gianelle, Henry B. Glick, David J. Harris, Andrew Hector, Andreas Hemp, Geerten Hengeveld, Bruno Hérault, John L. Herbohn, Annika Hillers, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Cang Hui, Thomas Ibanez, Nobuo Imai, Andrzej M. Jagodziński, Bogdan Jaroszewicz, Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Carlos A. Joly, Tommaso Jucker, Ilbin Jung, Viktor Karminov, Kuswata Kartawinata, Elizabeth Kearsley, David Kenfack, Deborah K. Kennard, Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Gunnar Keppel, Mohammed Latif Khan, Timothy J. Killeen, Hyun Seok Kim, Kanehiro Kitayama, Michael Köhl, Henn Korjus, Florian Kraxner, Dmitry Kucher, Diana Laarmann, Mait Lang, Huicui Lu, Natalia V. Lukina, Brian S. Maitner, Yadvinder Malhi, Eric Marcon, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Andrew R. Marshall, Emanuel H. Martin, Jorge A. Meave, Omar Melo-Cruz, Casimiro Mendoza, Irina Mendoza-Polo, Stanislaw Miscicki, Cory Merow, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Vanessa S. Moreno, Sharif A. Mukul, Philip Mundhenk, María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda, David Neill, Victor J. Neldner, Radovan V. Nevenic, Michael R. Ngugi, Pascal A. Niklaus, Jacek Oleksyn, Petr Ontikov, Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi, Yude Pan, Alain Paquette, Alexander Parada-Gutierrez, Elena I. Parfenova, Minjee Park, Marc Parren, Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy, Pablo L. Peri, Sebastian Pfautsch, Nicolas Picard, Maria Teresa F. Piedade, Daniel Piotto, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Hans Pretzsch, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Zorayda Restrepo-Correa, Mirco Rodeghiero, Samir G. Rolim, Anand Roopsind, Francesco Rovero, Ervan Rutishauser, Purabi Saikia, Christian Salas-Eljatib, Philippe Saner, Peter Schall, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Michael Scherer-Lorenzen, Bernhard Schmid, Jochen Schöngart, Eric B. Searle, Vladimír Seben, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Douglas Sheil, Anatoly Z. Shvidenko, Javier E. Silva-Espejo, Marcos Silveira, James Singh, Plinio Sist, Ferry Slik, Bonaventure Sonké, Alexandre F. Souza, Krzysztof J. Stereńczak, Jens-Christian Svenning, Miroslav Svoboda, Ben Swanepoel, Natalia Targhetta, Nadja Tchebakova, Hans ter Steege, Raquel Thomas, Elena Tikhonova, Peter M. Umunay, Vladimir A. Usoltsev, Renato Valencia, Fernando Valladares, Fons van der Plas, Tran Van Do, Michael E. van Nuland, Rodolfo M. Vasquez, Hans Verbeeck, Helder Viana, Alexander C. Vibrans, Simone Vieira, Klaus von Gadow, Hua-Feng Wang, James V. Watson, Gijsbert D. A. Werner, Susan K. Wiser, Florian Wittmann, Hannsjoerg Woell, Verginia Wortel, Roderik Zagt, Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Chunyu Zhang, Xiuhai Zhao, Mo Zhou, Zhi-Xin Zhu, Irie C. Zo-Bi, George D. Gann, and Thomas W. Crowther. 2023. “Integrated Global Assessment of the Natural Forest Carbon Potential.” NATURE 624 (7990): 92–101. doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z.
Vancouver
1.
Mo L, Zohner CM, Reich PB, Liang J, de Miguel S, Nabuurs G-J, et al. Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential. NATURE. 2023;624(7990):92–101.
IEEE
[1]
L. Mo et al., “Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential,” NATURE, vol. 624, no. 7990, pp. 92–101, 2023.
@article{01HJ90PXBVC60M99BF61K973CZ,
  abstract     = {{Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets. Analysis of ground-sourced and satellite-derived models reveals a global forest carbon potential of 226 Gt outside agricultural and urban lands, with a difference of only 12% across these modelling approaches.
}},
  author       = {{Mo, Lidong and Zohner, Constantin M. and Reich, Peter B. and Liang, Jingjing and de Miguel, Sergio and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Renner, Susanne S. and van den Hoogen, Johan and Araza, Arnan and Herold, Martin and Mirzagholi, Leila and Ma, Haozhi and Averill, Colin and Phillips, Oliver L. and Gamarra, Javier G. P. and Hordijk, Iris and Routh, Devin and Abegg, Meinrad and Adou Yao, Yves C. and Alberti, Giorgio and Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M. and Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez and Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban and Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia and Alves, Luciana F. and Amaral, Iêda and Ammer, Christian and Antón-Fernández, Clara and Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro and Arroyo, Luzmila and Avitabile, Valerio and Aymard, Gerardo A. and Baker, Timothy R. and Bałazy, Radomir and Banki, Olaf and Barroso, Jorcely G. and Bastian, Meredith L. and Bastin, Jean-Francois and Birigazzi, Luca and Birnbaum, Philippe and Bitariho, Robert and Boeckx, Pascal and Bongers, Frans and Bouriaud, Olivier and Brancalion, Pedro H. S. and Brandl, Susanne and Brearley, Francis Q. and Brienen, Roel and Broadbent, Eben N. and Bruelheide, Helge and Bussotti, Filippo and Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto and César, Ricardo G. and Cesljar, Goran and Chazdon, Robin L. and Chen, Han Y. H. and Chisholm, Chelsea and Cho, Hyunkook and Cienciala, Emil and Clark, Connie and Clark, David and Colletta, Gabriel D. and Coomes, David A. and Cornejo Valverde, Fernando and Corral-Rivas, José J. and Crim, Philip M. and Cumming, Jonathan R. and Dayanandan, Selvadurai and de Gasper, André L. and Decuyper, Mathieu and Derroire, Géraldine and DeVries, Ben and Djordjevic, Ilija and Dolezal, Jiri and Dourdain, Aurélie and Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier and Enquist, Brian J. and Eyre, Teresa J. and Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain and Fayle, Tom M. and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Ferreira, Leandro V. and Finér, Leena and Fischer, Markus and Fletcher, Christine and Frizzera, Lorenzo and Gianelle, Damiano and Glick, Henry B. and Harris, David J. and Hector, Andrew and Hemp, Andreas and Hengeveld, Geerten and Hérault, Bruno and Herbohn, John L. and Hillers, Annika and Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N. and Hui, Cang and Ibanez, Thomas and Imai, Nobuo and Jagodziński, Andrzej M. and Jaroszewicz, Bogdan and Johannsen, Vivian Kvist and Joly, Carlos A. and Jucker, Tommaso and Jung, Ilbin and Karminov, Viktor and Kartawinata, Kuswata and Kearsley, Elizabeth and Kenfack, David and Kennard, Deborah K. and Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian and Keppel, Gunnar and Khan, Mohammed Latif and Killeen, Timothy J. and Kim, Hyun Seok and Kitayama, Kanehiro and Köhl, Michael and Korjus, Henn and Kraxner, Florian and Kucher, Dmitry and Laarmann, Diana and Lang, Mait and Lu, Huicui and Lukina, Natalia V. and Maitner, Brian S. and Malhi, Yadvinder and Marcon, Eric and Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes and Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur and Marshall, Andrew R. and Martin, Emanuel H. and Meave, Jorge A. and Melo-Cruz, Omar and Mendoza, Casimiro and Mendoza-Polo, Irina and Miscicki, Stanislaw and Merow, Cory and Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel and Moreno, Vanessa S. and Mukul, Sharif A. and Mundhenk, Philip and Nava-Miranda, María Guadalupe and Neill, David and Neldner, Victor J. and Nevenic, Radovan V. and Ngugi, Michael R. and Niklaus, Pascal A. and Oleksyn, Jacek and Ontikov, Petr and Ortiz-Malavasi, Edgar and Pan, Yude and Paquette, Alain and Parada-Gutierrez, Alexander and Parfenova, Elena I. and Park, Minjee and Parren, Marc and Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy and Peri, Pablo L. and Pfautsch, Sebastian and Picard, Nicolas and Piedade, Maria Teresa F. and Piotto, Daniel and Pitman, Nigel C. A. and Poulsen, Axel Dalberg and Poulsen, John R. and Pretzsch, Hans and Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy and Restrepo-Correa, Zorayda and Rodeghiero, Mirco and Rolim, Samir G. and Roopsind, Anand and Rovero, Francesco and Rutishauser, Ervan and Saikia, Purabi and Salas-Eljatib, Christian and Saner, Philippe and Schall, Peter and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Schepaschenko, Dmitry and Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael and Schmid, Bernhard and Schöngart, Jochen and Searle, Eric B. and Seben, Vladimír and Serra-Diaz, Josep M. and Sheil, Douglas and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Silva-Espejo, Javier E. and Silveira, Marcos and Singh, James and Sist, Plinio and Slik, Ferry and Sonké, Bonaventure and Souza, Alexandre F. and Stereńczak, Krzysztof J. and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Svoboda, Miroslav and Swanepoel, Ben and Targhetta, Natalia and Tchebakova, Nadja and ter Steege, Hans and Thomas, Raquel and Tikhonova, Elena and Umunay, Peter M. and Usoltsev, Vladimir A. and Valencia, Renato and Valladares, Fernando and van der Plas, Fons and Van Do, Tran and van Nuland, Michael E. and Vasquez, Rodolfo M. and Verbeeck, Hans and Viana, Helder and Vibrans, Alexander C. and Vieira, Simone and von Gadow, Klaus and Wang, Hua-Feng and Watson, James V. and Werner, Gijsbert D. A. and Wiser, Susan K. and Wittmann, Florian and Woell, Hannsjoerg and Wortel, Verginia and Zagt, Roderik and Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Tomasz and Zhang, Chunyu and Zhao, Xiuhai and Zhou, Mo and Zhu, Zhi-Xin and Zo-Bi, Irie C. and Gann, George D. and Crowther, Thomas W.}},
  issn         = {{0028-0836}},
  journal      = {{NATURE}},
  keywords     = {{Climate-change mitigation,Forest ecology,Restoration ecology,cavelab,CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION,LAND-USE CHANGE,ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS,SPATIALLY EXPLICIT,SOIL CARBON,WORLDS,VEGETATION,MAP,MANAGEMENT,PATTERNS}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{7990}},
  pages        = {{92--101}},
  title        = {{Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z}},
  volume       = {{624}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}

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