Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species
- Author
- Stef Haesen, Jonathan Lenoir, Eva Gril, Pieter De Frenne (UGent) , Jonas J. Lembrechts, Martin Kopecký, Martin Macek, Matěj Man, Jan Wild and Koenraad Van Meerbeek
- Organization
- Project
- Abstract
- Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide. Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species on Earth reside in the shade of trees. Here, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering, at both coarse and high spatial resolution, for forest plant species across Europe.image
- Keywords
- ecological niche models, ForestClim, forest plant species, habitat suitability modelling, MaxEnt, microclimate, microrefugia, species distribution modelling, species response curves, understorey temperatures, DISTRIBUTION MODELS, CLIMATE-CHANGE, PREDICT, COMPLEXITY
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Citation
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01HGDMDPGA276BT2G3K4XHJWPA
- MLA
- Haesen, Stef, et al. “Microclimate Reveals the True Thermal Niche of Forest Plant Species.” ECOLOGY LETTERS, vol. 26, no. 12, 2023, pp. 2043–55, doi:10.1111/ele.14312.
- APA
- Haesen, S., Lenoir, J., Gril, E., De Frenne, P., Lembrechts, J. J., Kopecký, M., … Van Meerbeek, K. (2023). Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species. ECOLOGY LETTERS, 26(12), 2043–2055. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14312
- Chicago author-date
- Haesen, Stef, Jonathan Lenoir, Eva Gril, Pieter De Frenne, Jonas J. Lembrechts, Martin Kopecký, Martin Macek, Matěj Man, Jan Wild, and Koenraad Van Meerbeek. 2023. “Microclimate Reveals the True Thermal Niche of Forest Plant Species.” ECOLOGY LETTERS 26 (12): 2043–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14312.
- Chicago author-date (all authors)
- Haesen, Stef, Jonathan Lenoir, Eva Gril, Pieter De Frenne, Jonas J. Lembrechts, Martin Kopecký, Martin Macek, Matěj Man, Jan Wild, and Koenraad Van Meerbeek. 2023. “Microclimate Reveals the True Thermal Niche of Forest Plant Species.” ECOLOGY LETTERS 26 (12): 2043–2055. doi:10.1111/ele.14312.
- Vancouver
- 1.Haesen S, Lenoir J, Gril E, De Frenne P, Lembrechts JJ, Kopecký M, et al. Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species. ECOLOGY LETTERS. 2023;26(12):2043–55.
- IEEE
- [1]S. Haesen et al., “Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species,” ECOLOGY LETTERS, vol. 26, no. 12, pp. 2043–2055, 2023.
@article{01HGDMDPGA276BT2G3K4XHJWPA,
abstract = {{Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide. Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species on Earth reside in the shade of trees. Here, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering, at both coarse and high spatial resolution, for forest plant species across Europe.image
}},
author = {{Haesen, Stef and Lenoir, Jonathan and Gril, Eva and De Frenne, Pieter and Lembrechts, Jonas J. and Kopecký, Martin and Macek, Martin and Man, Matěj and Wild, Jan and Van Meerbeek, Koenraad}},
issn = {{1461-023X}},
journal = {{ECOLOGY LETTERS}},
keywords = {{ecological niche models,ForestClim,forest plant species,habitat suitability modelling,MaxEnt,microclimate,microrefugia,species distribution modelling,species response curves,understorey temperatures,DISTRIBUTION MODELS,CLIMATE-CHANGE,PREDICT,COMPLEXITY}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{12}},
pages = {{2043--2055}},
title = {{Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14312}},
volume = {{26}},
year = {{2023}},
}
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