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A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity

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Abstract
Growing healthcare needs leverage the potential savings of using resources efficiently. To that end, ProMoBed is a comprehensive model that supports strategic planning of bed capacity in inpatient hospitals. The model consists of an extrapolation and simulation component, the former supplying input for the latter. The extrapolation model forecasts admission rates and the average Length of Stay for pathology groups, and corrects for demographic changes. Subsequently, the simulation model emulates the demand for bed capacity, and makes service-level based bed capacity suggestions. Additionally, the model uses the Shapley value principle to disaggregate the effects on demand for inpatient days due to different causes. Results from the extrapolation model are applied to regions in Belgium, showing expected divergence in inpatient day demand evolution.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords
Capacity planning, Hospital simulation, Long -term healthcare forecasts, Inpatient hospital, DRG, DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION, DECISION-SUPPORT-SYSTEM, HEALTH-CARE, EMERGENCY, OCCUPANCY, TIME

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MLA
Latruwe, Timo, et al. “A Long-Term Forecasting and Simulation Model for Strategic Planning of Hospital Bed Capacity.” OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE, vol. 36, Elsevier, 2023, doi:10.1016/j.orhc.2022.100375.
APA
Latruwe, T., Van der Wee, M., Vanleenhove, P., Devriese, J., Verbrugge, S., & Colle, D. (2023). A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity. OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE, 36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orhc.2022.100375
Chicago author-date
Latruwe, Timo, Marlies Van der Wee, Pieter Vanleenhove, Joke Devriese, Sofie Verbrugge, and Didier Colle. 2023. “A Long-Term Forecasting and Simulation Model for Strategic Planning of Hospital Bed Capacity.” OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE 36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orhc.2022.100375.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Latruwe, Timo, Marlies Van der Wee, Pieter Vanleenhove, Joke Devriese, Sofie Verbrugge, and Didier Colle. 2023. “A Long-Term Forecasting and Simulation Model for Strategic Planning of Hospital Bed Capacity.” OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE 36. doi:10.1016/j.orhc.2022.100375.
Vancouver
1.
Latruwe T, Van der Wee M, Vanleenhove P, Devriese J, Verbrugge S, Colle D. A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity. OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE. 2023;36.
IEEE
[1]
T. Latruwe, M. Van der Wee, P. Vanleenhove, J. Devriese, S. Verbrugge, and D. Colle, “A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity,” OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE, vol. 36, 2023.
@article{01GZDX5BS228V56M5YHX449PN9,
  abstract     = {{Growing healthcare needs leverage the potential savings of using resources efficiently. To that end, ProMoBed is a comprehensive model that supports strategic planning of bed capacity in inpatient hospitals. The model consists of an extrapolation and simulation component, the former supplying input for the latter. The extrapolation model forecasts admission rates and the average Length of Stay for pathology groups, and corrects for demographic changes. Subsequently, the simulation model emulates the demand for bed capacity, and makes service-level based bed capacity suggestions. Additionally, the model uses the Shapley value principle to disaggregate the effects on demand for inpatient days due to different causes. Results from the extrapolation model are applied to regions in Belgium, showing expected divergence in inpatient day demand evolution.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).}},
  articleno    = {{100375}},
  author       = {{Latruwe, Timo and Van der Wee, Marlies and Vanleenhove, Pieter and Devriese, Joke and Verbrugge, Sofie and Colle, Didier}},
  issn         = {{2211-6923}},
  journal      = {{OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE}},
  keywords     = {{Capacity planning,Hospital simulation,Long -term healthcare forecasts,Inpatient hospital,DRG,DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION,DECISION-SUPPORT-SYSTEM,HEALTH-CARE,EMERGENCY,OCCUPANCY,TIME}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{11}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  title        = {{A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.orhc.2022.100375}},
  volume       = {{36}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}

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