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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building-stock energy models : sampling procedure, stock size and Sobol’ convergence

Matthias Van Hove (UGent) , Marc Delghust (UGent) and Jelle Laverge (UGent)
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Abstract
Despite broad recognition of the need for applying Uncertainty (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) to Building-Stock Energy Models (BSEMs), limited research has been done. This article proposes a scalable methodology to apply UA and SA to BSEMs, with an emphasis on important methodological aspects: input parameter sampling procedure, minimum required building stock size and number of samples needed for convergence. Applying UA and SA to BSEMs requires a two-step input parameter sampling that samples ‘across stocks’ and ‘within stocks’. To make efficient use of computational resources, practitioners should distinguish between three types of convergence: screening, ranking and indices. Nested sampling approaches facilitate comprehensive UA and SA quality checks faster and simpler than non-nested approaches. Robust UA-SA's can be accomplished with relatively limited stock sizes. The article highlights that UA-SA practitioners should only limit the UA-SA scope after very careful consideration as thoughtless curtailments can rapidly affect UA-SA quality and inferences.
Keywords
IEA EBC Annex 70, building-stock energy model, uncertainty and, sensitivity analysis, sampling procedure, building stock size, convergence criteria, PERFORMANCE, CONSUMPTION, FRAMEWORK, DEMAND

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Citation

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MLA
Van Hove, Matthias, et al. “Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Building-Stock Energy Models : Sampling Procedure, Stock Size and Sobol’ Convergence.” JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION, vol. 16, no. 6, 2023, pp. 749–71, doi:10.1080/19401493.2023.2201816.
APA
Van Hove, M., Delghust, M., & Laverge, J. (2023). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building-stock energy models : sampling procedure, stock size and Sobol’ convergence. JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION, 16(6), 749–771. https://doi.org/10.1080/19401493.2023.2201816
Chicago author-date
Van Hove, Matthias, Marc Delghust, and Jelle Laverge. 2023. “Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Building-Stock Energy Models : Sampling Procedure, Stock Size and Sobol’ Convergence.” JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION 16 (6): 749–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/19401493.2023.2201816.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Van Hove, Matthias, Marc Delghust, and Jelle Laverge. 2023. “Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Building-Stock Energy Models : Sampling Procedure, Stock Size and Sobol’ Convergence.” JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION 16 (6): 749–771. doi:10.1080/19401493.2023.2201816.
Vancouver
1.
Van Hove M, Delghust M, Laverge J. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building-stock energy models : sampling procedure, stock size and Sobol’ convergence. JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION. 2023;16(6):749–71.
IEEE
[1]
M. Van Hove, M. Delghust, and J. Laverge, “Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building-stock energy models : sampling procedure, stock size and Sobol’ convergence,” JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION, vol. 16, no. 6, pp. 749–771, 2023.
@article{01GYSN4VZQW7MBWWHV3F5FGZBS,
  abstract     = {{Despite broad recognition of the need for applying Uncertainty (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) to Building-Stock Energy Models (BSEMs), limited research has been done. This article proposes a scalable methodology to apply UA and SA to BSEMs, with an emphasis on important methodological aspects: input parameter sampling procedure, minimum required building stock size and number of samples needed for convergence. Applying UA and SA to BSEMs requires a two-step input parameter sampling that samples ‘across stocks’ and ‘within stocks’. To make efficient use of computational resources, practitioners should distinguish between three types of convergence: screening, ranking and indices. Nested sampling approaches facilitate comprehensive UA and SA quality checks faster and simpler than non-nested approaches. Robust UA-SA's can be accomplished with relatively limited stock sizes. The article highlights that UA-SA practitioners should only limit the UA-SA scope after very careful consideration as thoughtless curtailments can rapidly affect UA-SA quality and inferences.}},
  author       = {{Van Hove, Matthias and Delghust, Marc and Laverge, Jelle}},
  issn         = {{1940-1493}},
  journal      = {{JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION}},
  keywords     = {{IEA EBC Annex 70,building-stock energy model,uncertainty and,sensitivity analysis,sampling procedure,building stock size,convergence criteria,PERFORMANCE,CONSUMPTION,FRAMEWORK,DEMAND}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{6}},
  pages        = {{749--771}},
  title        = {{Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building-stock energy models : sampling procedure, stock size and Sobol’ convergence}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1080/19401493.2023.2201816}},
  volume       = {{16}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}

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