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Outcome sequences and illusion of control, part I : an online replication of Langer & Roth (1975)

(2023) INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES. 23(2). p.257-268
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Abstract
The illusion of control is an important feature of both problematic and nonproblematic gambling behavior. Crucially, this construct is incorporated in most cognitive models of problem gambling, and is also central in numerous approaches to gambling disorder treatment (e.g. psychological interventions using cognitive restructuring to mitigate the illusion of control). In this preregistered study, we tried to replicate the illusion-of-control effect, as defined and investigated in the seminal work by Langer and Roth, in an online context. Using the same trial procedure and a similar cover story as the original study, we presented three groups of healthy participants (N = 289; crowdsourced sample) with three different sequences of wins and losses in a coin-tossing task. Consistent with the original study, we found that participants presented with more wins at the beginning of a sequence estimated their ability to predict the outcome of a coin-toss higher than participants presented with more losses at the beginning, or those presented with a random sequence, although the effect sizes were small to medium (biggest Hedge's g_av = 0.49) compared to the original study which yielded larger effect sizes (biggest eta p(2) = 0.14). Thus, we replicated the findings in an online context, although the effect size was smaller than expected.
Keywords
Control beliefs, illusion of control, gambling, replication, online experiments, MODEL

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Citation

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MLA
Eben, Charlotte, et al. “Outcome Sequences and Illusion of Control, Part I : An Online Replication of Langer & Roth (1975).” INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES, vol. 23, no. 2, 2023, pp. 257–68, doi:10.1080/14459795.2022.2133906.
APA
Eben, C., Chen, Z., Billieux, J., & Verbruggen, F. (2023). Outcome sequences and illusion of control, part I : an online replication of Langer & Roth (1975). INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES, 23(2), 257–268. https://doi.org/10.1080/14459795.2022.2133906
Chicago author-date
Eben, Charlotte, Zhang Chen, Joël Billieux, and Frederick Verbruggen. 2023. “Outcome Sequences and Illusion of Control, Part I : An Online Replication of Langer & Roth (1975).” INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES 23 (2): 257–68. https://doi.org/10.1080/14459795.2022.2133906.
Chicago author-date (all authors)
Eben, Charlotte, Zhang Chen, Joël Billieux, and Frederick Verbruggen. 2023. “Outcome Sequences and Illusion of Control, Part I : An Online Replication of Langer & Roth (1975).” INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES 23 (2): 257–268. doi:10.1080/14459795.2022.2133906.
Vancouver
1.
Eben C, Chen Z, Billieux J, Verbruggen F. Outcome sequences and illusion of control, part I : an online replication of Langer & Roth (1975). INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES. 2023;23(2):257–68.
IEEE
[1]
C. Eben, Z. Chen, J. Billieux, and F. Verbruggen, “Outcome sequences and illusion of control, part I : an online replication of Langer & Roth (1975),” INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 257–268, 2023.
@article{01GK14DD3KNMPCVBWPNGM240KX,
  abstract     = {{The illusion of control is an important feature of both problematic and nonproblematic gambling behavior. Crucially, this construct is incorporated in most cognitive models of problem gambling, and is also central in numerous approaches to gambling disorder treatment (e.g. psychological interventions using cognitive restructuring to mitigate the illusion of control). In this preregistered study, we tried to replicate the illusion-of-control effect, as defined and investigated in the seminal work by Langer and Roth, in an online context. Using the same trial procedure and a similar cover story as the original study, we presented three groups of healthy participants (N = 289; crowdsourced sample) with three different sequences of wins and losses in a coin-tossing task. Consistent with the original study, we found that participants presented with more wins at the beginning of a sequence estimated their ability to predict the outcome of a coin-toss higher than participants presented with more losses at the beginning, or those presented with a random sequence, although the effect sizes were small to medium (biggest Hedge's g_av = 0.49) compared to the original study which yielded larger effect sizes (biggest eta p(2) = 0.14). Thus, we replicated the findings in an online context, although the effect size was smaller than expected.}},
  author       = {{Eben, Charlotte and Chen, Zhang and Billieux, Joël and Verbruggen, Frederick}},
  issn         = {{1445-9795}},
  journal      = {{INTERNATIONAL GAMBLING STUDIES}},
  keywords     = {{Control beliefs,illusion of control,gambling,replication,online experiments,MODEL}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  pages        = {{257--268}},
  title        = {{Outcome sequences and illusion of control, part I : an online replication of Langer & Roth (1975)}},
  url          = {{http://doi.org/10.1080/14459795.2022.2133906}},
  volume       = {{23}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}

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